Derby Trail Forums
Page 11 of 20 « First < 910 11 1213 > Last »
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=9)
-   -   6/8 (BEL) 145th Belmont Stakes: Field at 14 as 'Tiz' passes (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49949)

pointman 04-29-2013 11:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 925907)
why don't you ask him ? or any of the other jockeys to whom I give strategic advice. Not all jocks can read the form, and their agents aren't much better. I have already told Calvin to have Rev. up and into the race. He will be in front of more than are in front of him into the first turn. He will hit the front at the 3/16 pole. That's the plan.
What other jocks have you given strategic advice to? I find it hard to believe from your posts that you know how to read a form.

So now you have predicted that Revolutionary will win the triple crown and that he is going to change his style in the Derby and be in the first half of the field by the first turn which is entirely different then the deep closer that he has been in the past. All this without even consideration to the draw.

If that isn't far fetched enough, you want people to believe that it is because you instructed Borel to do that? It doesn't matter what the owner, trainer and Borel think, Borel is going to use your plan? Could you be a bigger tool?

It is hard to believe that the weight that you have put on this poor horse can be overcome by even the greatest of throughbreds.

pointman 04-29-2013 11:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hi_im_god (Post 925908)
don't be so dismissive. i once yelled at an outfielder to "catch the damn ball!" and he did it.

alabama believes that jockeys take notes from random ninnies in the crowd. and i believe i helped orel hirscheiser close out the mets in the 88 nlcs.
:D
:tro:

my miss storm cat 04-29-2013 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 925911)
It's a NO from Tiz a Minister's team. 19 in Derby... for now.
Disappointed but good call by the connections putting him first.

Hope they make it to the Derby some day.

Danzig 04-29-2013 01:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hi_im_god (Post 925908)
don't be so dismissive. i once yelled at an outfielder to "catch the damn ball!" and he did it.

alabama believes that jockeys take notes from random ninnies in the crowd. and i believe i helped orel hirscheiser close out the mets in the 88 nlcs.
:D
:tro:

Alan07 04-29-2013 03:18 PM
Fear The Kitten going to be entered w/ Alan Garcia listed as jockey.

tjfla 04-29-2013 03:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan07 (Post 925932)
Fear The Kitten going to be entered w/ Alan Garcia listed as jockey.
What a perfect match Ramsey and D Wayne would be!!!

Let's just hope Ramsey has him nominated before he tries to enter him

NTamm1215 04-29-2013 03:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjfla (Post 925933)
What a perfect match Ramsey and D Wayne would be!!!

Let's just hope Ramsey has him nominated before he tries to enter him
He's not a Ramsey horse.

tjfla 04-29-2013 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 925934)
He's not a Ramsey horse.
Ya just noticed that got him mixed up with Charming Kitten.

Rudeboyelvis 04-30-2013 07:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan07 (Post 925932)
Fear The Kitten going to be entered w/ Alan Garcia listed as jockey.
With a grand total of 6 Derby points. I had read where Vegas had a prop bet of the over/under to make the field being set a 20. I had thought at the time that was a ridiculously low number.

6 is unimaginable.

justindew 04-30-2013 08:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 925970)
With a grand total of 6 Derby points. I had read where Vegas had a prop bet of the over/under to make the field being set a 20. I had thought at the time that was a ridiculously low number.

6 is unimaginable.
I think the over/under was 29.5 at one casino.

NTamm1215 04-30-2013 08:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 925970)
With a grand total of 6 Derby points. I had read where Vegas had a prop bet of the over/under to make the field being set a 20. I had thought at the time that was a ridiculously low number.

6 is unimaginable.
Don't forget that 7 horses with 30 points or more are either inactive or off the trail.

This is why the outcry when the system came out about how "so and so would have been excluded" was ridiculous. There are going to be years where the standings are so top heavy (like 2013). All of the top 6 won 2 Derby preps with the exception of Java's War, who finished 2nd in the TB Derby. If there's more of a spread among the prep winners next year, the bottom for points will be a lot higher.

Calzone Lord 04-30-2013 08:45 AM
Orb is obviously going to be the post time favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and he just ran 11 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia on the same day and same distance.

She's excluded from entering in favor of Fear The Kitten, now that Tiz A Minsiter is out after his 3rd place finish in the Cal Bred stake last weekend.

You know, because she didn't "earn" her way in like they did.

NTamm1215 04-30-2013 09:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 925975)
Orb is obviously going to be the post time favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and he just ran 11 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia on the same day and same distance.

She's excluded from entering in favor of Fear The Kitten, now that Tiz A Minsiter is out after his 3rd place finish in the Cal Bred stake last weekend.

You know, because she didn't "earn" her way in like they did.
I'm not defending the points system, but simply pointing out that yearly changes are going to make the bottom amount needed for entry fluctuate.

The exclusion of races for fillies, the Illinois Derby hilarity, and the BC Juvenile not being an auto entry seem to be the three biggest flaws with the system. The 1st and 3rd have simple fixes. The 2nd depends on if CDI is still in a pissing match with Hawthorne.

I think the GP Oaks-FG Oaks-Gazelle-Ashland and Fantasy should be in the 50 pt range, so should the Juvenile.

Dahoss 04-30-2013 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 925975)
Orb is obviously going to be the post time favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and he just ran 11 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia on the same day and same distance.

She's excluded from entering in favor of Fear The Kitten, now that Tiz A Minsiter is out after his 3rd place finish in the Cal Bred stake last weekend.

You know, because she didn't "earn" her way in like they did.
I was under the impression they had no desire to run her in the Derby anyway. I guess if they could it might be a different story, but we'll never know.

Overall point taken, but if they weren't going to run anyway, it's hard to blame the point system.

It's like the people complaining about Departing getting "shut out" of the Derby. He could be running in it. The connections are choosing not to.

jms62 04-30-2013 09:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 925976)
I'm not defending the points system, but simply pointing out that yearly changes are going to make the bottom amount needed for entry fluctuate.

The exclusion of races for fillies, the Illinois Derby hilarity, and the BC Juvenile not being an auto entry seem to be the three biggest flaws with the system. The 1st and 3rd have simple fixes. The 2nd depends on if CDI is still in a pissing match with Hawthorne.

I think the GP Oaks-FG Oaks-Gazelle-Ashland and Fantasy should be in the 50 pt range, so should the Juvenile.
Don't agree. Why should a race Restricted to Fillies have any bearing on entry into an Open race? If the Fillies want to compete then step up and enter the preps.

justindew 04-30-2013 09:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 925979)
It's a comically stupid point.

No one knew Dreaming of Julia was anywhere near that good until her last race. What kind of moronic trainer would have started her in the Florida Derby?

here is a list of every single filly to race in the Kentucky Derby since 1945:

2010 Devil May Care
2008 Eight Belles
1999 Excellent Meeting
1999 Three Ring
1995 Serena's Song
1988 Winning Colors
1984 Life's Magic
1984 Althea
1982 Cupecoy's Joy
1980 Genuine Risk
1959 Silver Spoon

That's a grand total of just 11 fillies. And 2 of them won it.

I think the last filly to enter the Preakness was Rachel Alexandra, she won.

I think the last filly to enter the Belmont is Rags to Riches, she won.

The simple solution was always to slap the 'win and you're in' label on the final major Kentucky Oaks preps.

Under the old system... thousands of fillies had the Graded Earnings to get into the Derby ... of those thousands, only 11 started. Even Rachel Alexandra and Rags To Riches ducked.

The 19th and 20th horses to get in on points are going to be garbage pales almost every year...if you haven't figured that out yet. And even top class fillies are going to avoid the Derby because of the conservative nature of horse trainers... if you haven't figured that out yet.
It's actually far from comically stupid. It's totally relevant.

Clip-Clop 04-30-2013 10:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 925981)
It's relevant if you don't have any idea what you're talking about.

Even D. Wayne Lukas wouldn't have run Dreaming of Julia in the Florida Derby. She wasn't even the morning line favorite in the race she plastered Live Lively and Emollient by 20+ lengths.

Luckily, Goldencents was born with a set of balls and a shaft. He has a MUCH better shot in the Derby than he would the Kentucky Oaks.
And 10-15 others too.

justindew 04-30-2013 10:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 925981)
It's relevant if you don't have any idea what you're talking about.

Even D. Wayne Lukas wouldn't have run Dreaming of Julia in the Florida Derby. She wasn't even the morning line favorite in the race she plastered Live Lively and Emollient by 20+ lengths.

Luckily, Goldencents was born with a set of balls and a shaft. He has a MUCH better shot in the Derby than he would the Kentucky Oaks.
Right, becasue Derby Fever can hit owners of horses like Fear The Kitten, but it can't hit the owners of a filly that runs 3rd twice in races restricted to fillies. Or perhaps two fillies.

My point is that there is no fair way to fix this problem that you are saying exists. And you are somehow absolving the connections of the fillies of any blame at all.

Calzone Lord 04-30-2013 10:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clip-Clop (Post 925982)
And 10-15 others too.
The Oaks is a pace melt-down waiting to happen. If I trained Dreaming of Julia she'd scratch and point for the triple tiara.

Let Midnight Lucky, Close Hatches, Beholder, and the four or five other quality speeds in there take each other apart.

There is a 0.00% chance I'd start her in the Oaks. The New York races are just as prestigious and the Breeders Cup Distaff is far more prestigious than the Oaks.

Pletcher is kid-gloving Dreaming of Julia into this race. Her final work was sundial slow under a full nelson. It looked more like a gallop than a work.

Clip-Clop 04-30-2013 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 925984)
The Oaks is a pace melt-down waiting to happen. If I trained Dreaming of Julia she'd scratch and point for the triple tiara.

Let Midnight Lucky, Close Hatches, Beholder, and the four or five other quality speeds in there take each other apart.

There is a 0.00% chance I'd start her in the Oaks. The New York races are just as prestigious and the Breeders Cup Distaff is far more prestigious than the Oaks.

Pletcher is kid-gloving Dreaming of Julia into this race. Her final work was sundial slow under a full nelson. It looked more like a gallop than a work.
I fear she might be another GS freak from that barn. Will be wagering like it too.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:18 AM.
Page 11 of 20 « First < 910 11 1213 > Last »
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.