Re: the stat on Arc winners in the Turf, I thought the sample size was really small; I thought it was 4; I could be wrong on that but I thought I heard that the other day. And Trempolino ran a great race; he lost a photo to a great American grass horse (Theatrical). Secondly, there haven't been too many soft courses; the 1988 running w/Great Communicator was on a bog; I think the Arlington and Lone Star BC races were on less than firm but not too many "softs" or "yielding".

When have I said the BC was unimportant??

I have said that the Coolmore team weren't interested in sending DT to the Breeder's Cup, and that is true. Before the Arc when asked if DT would go to America the answer was no. Then it changed to if he won he wouldn't travel. It shows that coming here was a very last minute decision. Even if he didn't win there was only an outside chance he's come here.

No, i'm not an insider, but i do know that there is doubt over him running at this point in time. Aidan O'brien has publicly said that the horse doesn't like soft ground and they will try and avoid it whenever possible.

The ground will be on the soft side on Saturday.

No, i don't know what they are going to do, i was told by a friend who works for coolmore in the States that there is a doubt if the rain comes, whether she is 'in the know' i'm not sure, but those words had come from Dermot Ryan, and that has been backed up on our racing channel today.

I'm not saying he won't run, but there is a doubt over him doing so.

Thank you, Arljim.

So you're gullible when it concerns horse racing news. My mistake. I apologize.

Well, i will believe close friends who have a connection with the horses rather than believe what 'joe blogs' says. If that makes me gullible then so be it.

Aidan O'Brien has said of the horses dislike of soft ground and will try and avoid it whenever they can. What Makes Monmouth's soft turf different to anywhere else?

It wasn't me who ever said the BC was unimportant, but the Coolmore team did imply that it wasn't so important with regards to this horse.

I hope he does run because i'd love to see him on the track once last time, all i have said is that there is a big chance of him not running, and i'm not in the minority over here by saying that. Many 'fans' are saying the same.

Hey I apologized. Why do you insist on baiting me into commenting again with this?

Steve...what do you want me to do? I can't control myself when stuff like this happens. This board is out of control with name dropping and insider info. It's borderline insanity what's going on. Any jagoff with an internet connection can register and claim they have good info because they know some guy behind the guy who combs a horsies hair. How can I rebut this nonsense without being nasty about it?

You could at least act grown up about it. You're about 60, right? Yet you're acting like a 12 year old.

I love the fact you said "he'll run" yet gave no reasons why you are so sure. I'm under the impression that they are having doubts about running him and gave reasons.

I dont really know if the point about this race being the plan for Dylan is as relevent as it might be for other horses. Sure, the Arc was barely even the plan for Dylan Thomas. All season, they basically ran him whenever he was fit and ready to go - they havent really stuck to a plan this year with him. I think it would have to be very very soft for them to scratch and even if it is soft, i think he'll win.

"Your insight is that of a fan yet you're acting like an insider. You aren't. You don't know what they're going to do. I was mocking you."

The Arc was the plan from early summer. King George and the Arc. The only concern for both races was the prosect of soft ground.

I just found it interesting that they never nominated this race, and specifically said that if he won the Arc, that would be it.

You say it will need to be very, very soft. There is every chance it could be judging by the forecast. If he does run and gets stuffed they will be gutted to go out on a low note, that certainly wouldn't be the plan.

about the turf being soft
 

I don't know how much rain they are getting
I have read that the new turf drains better than
well really good.
The sharp turns may be the greater concern
problem is.. like brockguy said, 5 lengths slower and DT still wins

This shows Aidan O'Brien's current concern.

From Racing Post.......

Ground worry for Dylan Thomas with heavy rain predicted

by Neil Morrice



AIDAN O'BRIEN expressed his concern on Friday about the very real prospect of testing ground for Dylan Thomas in Saturday evening's Breeders' Cup Turf at Monmouth Park.

Although the heavy rain of Thursday abated overnight, the local weather forecasters have predicted what could amount to a deluge on Friday evening and that would spell bad news for the drifting Turf favourite.

Dylan Thomas was widely quoted as an even-money chance by theBritish bookmakers today but anyone wanting to back the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner will surely do better by waiting as conditions will not go back in his favour.

The colt was partnered by work rider Pat Lillis for his first sighting of the Monmouth Park turf course as O'Brien accompanied his star on the back of a pony.

After taking his horses back to the quarantine barn the trainer was in contemplatory mood when talking about Dylan Thomas, who is on the cusp of clinching the Horse Of The Year accolade.

O'Brien pondered: "Dylan has such a long, low stride that soft ground is a disadvantage for him. He overcame it in the Arc but everyone knows he's better on concrete. The ground out there is better than Longchamp at the moment and much depends on what happens tonight."

If Dylan Thomas is to be blown off his perch, then Brian Meehan's Red Rocks looks the one most likely to do it.

The 2006 Turf hero cannot beat Dylan Thomas on the evidence of the formbook, but while the latter has endured quite a long and hard season, Red Rocks goes to post as fresh as paint.

Meehan ponied alongside his charge as they were one of the first out on the main track and afterwards the Manton trainer said: "He's on very good terms with himself.He's nice and relaxed and has done everything right.

"He just jogged a lap, then he cantered. He'll do the same tomorrow."

It will be fascinating to see what tactics Meehan opts for with Frankie Dettori's mount and there is a suspicion Red Rocks will be better-suited by the tight turning course than the massive Dylan Thomas.

Meehan, whose charge will run on Lasix and Bute, added: "Last year it took him a bit of time to get into the swing of it. Tomorrow I think there will be pace from the gate and that Dylan Thomas will be aggressive.

"My horse's two or three best runs have been from off the pace, so why change?"

****************

It all boils down to how much rain they get tonight and tomorrow, if they get what they are expecting it really won't surprise me to see him scratched.

The horse has more to lose than to gain and the coolmore gang will realise this.

Can i just ask......

English Channel and Better Talk Now, i know they are two of your best turf horses at this sort of trip and they seem to hold their form very well, BUT.... how good actually are they? I only get to see these horses once or twice a year and i can't really get a hold of their form.

I know English Channel didn't finish too far in front of Stream Of Gold on a recent start (was that his last start?) and Stream Of Gold was only really a handicapper over here.

What about Better Talk Now? I know less about him other than he finished second in this last year, so he must be half decent.

If they do run DT will he be able to win on the bridle? My worry is that he won't find those extra gears he has in this soft ground that is likely. I still don't think they are keen to run him, but it's weather they think his class can see him through, but i'm just not sure.

Stream of Gold also just ran fourth behind Cloudy's Knight, Quijano, and Ask at Woodbine last Sunday.

How would you rate Quijano and Ask? It might go a long way in determining what kind of animal Stream of Gold is/has become since coming here, and that might help you get a feel for English Channel, etc.

Also, if you watch the race where English Channel "didn't finish too far in front of" Stream of Gold, you'll see that there's a huge reason for it. If you haven't actually seen that race, you absolutely need to before using Stream of Gold's performance vis a vis English Channel in that race as any sort of measuring stick.

EC's barely beating him could (and should) have been an open lengths romp.

the fact that EngChan is 2nd fav after a less than stellar season just shows how poor this race is.. after dylan, id be looking at someone other than EC, BTN or Red Rocks to finish 2nd. Alot of the guys here like Shamdinan.

Quijano and Ask are two nice horses but they would have plenty to find with Dylan Thomas when DT is at his best.

I did see that race where he squeezed through an almost impossible gap and won well. I must admit i forgot about that until you just mentioned it. It's just the fact that i would hate to think how moderate Stream Of Gold would look against Dylan Thomas.

I'm just trying to judge is Dylan can win this when only being half as good as he can be. Soft ground does take a fair amount from him, especially his turn of foot.

I'm not pulling the "inside information" routine here -- just saying that a racing blogger I respect said that Shamdinan was the most visually unimpressive horse he saw all day today at Monmouth. He said his coat looked poor and that he just didn't look like he was ready to throw in a good performance tomorrow.

I like Shamdinan a lot on paper, and won't necessarily toss him because someone said he didn't look great, but it made me take pause.

He does NOT like soft turf. The drier it is, the better he'll do.

Shamdinan? his best race in Europe and his best race in the States were both on softish (well good ground in the states!) ground..