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-   -   American Pharoah out (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55566)

RockHardTen1985 10-28-2014 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat (Post 1003714)
Why?

Im with you, its such a stupid thing to say. Its not even worth asking why, because you will just get a dumb response. The guy pumps money into the game and has had horrible luck. Eskenderya was a triple crown winner and Bodemeister was a freak show who was incredibly unlucky.

blackthroatedwind 10-28-2014 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1003703)
That's silly. About him being a much more likely winner than Daredevil.

I'll grant you that Daredevil, of the two, was more likely to flop badly.

And yeah, I understand you thinking Nick was being a chicken not posting that thought before AP was scratched, but hell, the race is still four days away. Not too many people have posted their analysis just yet.

Nick is a chicken? How is a guy that does public handicapping considered a chicken?

Nick has one of the best opinions of anyone I have ever known. His public handicapping record is superior. He's also about the least disingenuous person I have ever known. He didn't like American Pharoah. Frankly, no handicapper whose opinion I respect at all liked him on Saturday.

Indian Charlie 10-28-2014 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1003718)
Nick is a chicken? How is a guy that does public handicapping considered a chicken?

Nick has one of the best opinions of anyone I have ever known. His public handicapping record is superior. He's also about the least disingenuous person I have ever known. He didn't like American Pharoah. Frankly, no handicapper whose opinion I respect at all liked him on Saturday.

I wasn't calling him a chicken. I was saying I could understand how RTH might think he was chicken by not posting his opinion about AP before he was withdrawn.

I then said that there was still four days still left until the race, meaning that his opinion would have been more than likely posted in the coming days.

Indian Charlie 10-28-2014 06:36 PM

I am curious as to what all these handicappers saw in AP that made him a toss out in this race.

I saw him far from being a lock in there, but I can see nothing that would make me think he's a complete throwout.

RockHardTen1985 10-28-2014 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1003719)
I wasn't calling him a chicken. I was saying I could understand how RTH might think he was chicken by not posting his opinion about AP before he was withdrawn.

I then said that there was still four days still left until the race, meaning that his opinion would have been more than likely posted in the coming days.

I never called him a chicken. I said its a silly thing to say because now the horse is not running anyway. The horse has paired up triple digit beyers, that's big for a 2yr old. Why anyone would call him the biggest bet against of the weekend is confusing to me. I would think horses like Judy the Beauty and No Nay Never at 5-2 and 9-2 would be much bigger bet's against then American Monster.

blackthroatedwind 10-28-2014 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1003719)
I wasn't calling him a chicken. I was saying I could understand how RTH might think he was chicken by not posting his opinion about AP before he was withdrawn.

I then said that there was still four days still left until the race, meaning that his opinion would have been more than likely posted in the coming days.

I knew what you meant. I should have said it differently.

He set a very slow pace last time, having things very much his own way, and was meeting both better horses and horses that were faster early.

It wasn't that he couldn't win, it was more that he was a reasonably unlikely winner that was going to be favored. That makes him a great bet against.

Alabama Stakes 10-28-2014 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Conrad (Post 1003695)
Zayat's misfortune brings me such joy.

He deserves it

getting joy from a poor innocent hoss getting injured.....for shame:mad:

asudevil 10-28-2014 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1003722)
I knew what you meant. I should have said it differently.

He set a very slow pace last time, having things very much his own way, and was meeting both better horses and horses that were faster early.

It wasn't that he couldn't win, it was more that he was a reasonably unlikely winner that was going to be favored. That makes him a great bet against.

Hey BTW,

Where will your BC selections be posted? nyra.com?

Thanks,
ASU

Calzone Lord 10-28-2014 07:07 PM

If Upstart was trained by someone generic -- he'd be both my Breeders Cup Juvenile horse and my early Kentucky Derby standout prospect.

Unfortunately, he's trained by Rick Violette, who is uncommonly good with debuting 2-year-olds -- and unlike the general trainer, he's not a guy that you can trust to develop a horse who is impressive early.

That horse is by Flatter out of a Touch Gold mare. Not only is that a big-time anti precocity pedigree, but it's a very good distance pedigree. Both the grandsire (A. P. Indy) and damsire (Touch Gold) were Belmont Stakes winners.

He was so green in his debut, Ortiz looked like your average 7-lbs bug riding him, and he still blew a nice NY Bred MSW field away with a good figure going just 5.5 furlongs.

If Rick Violette has no association with this horse, and he wasn't going East to West and breaking from post 13...I'd be real excited about him.

RockHardTen1985 10-28-2014 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 1003727)
If Upstart was trained by someone generic -- he'd be both my Breeders Cup Juvenile horse and my early Kentucky Derby standout prospect.

Unfortunately, he's trained by Rick Violette, who is uncommonly good with debuting 2-year-olds -- and unlike the general trainer, he's not a guy that you can trust to develop a horse who is impressive early.

That horse is by Flatter out of a Touch Gold mare. Not only is that a big-time anti precocity pedigree, but it's a very good distance pedigree. Both the grandsire (A. P. Indy) and damsire (Touch Gold) were Belmont Stakes winners.

He was so green in his debut, Ortiz looked like your average 7-lbs bug riding him, and he still blew a nice NY Bred MSW field away with a good figure going just 5.5 furlongs.

If Rick Violette has no association with this horse, and he wasn't going East to West and breaking from post 13...I'd be real excited about him.

In a way hasnt he already busted the Violette curse?? He has run 3 big races already. Not just one and fall apart like the typical Rick V baby.

Aly-Sheba 10-28-2014 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Conrad (Post 1003711)
Calculator is a maiden - has a maiden ever won the BrCup Juvy?

I like Texas Red

Action this Day I believe was a maiden

Bigsmc 10-29-2014 04:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba (Post 1003771)
Action this Day I believe was a maiden

He was not. He broke his maiden at Del Mar.

Conrad 10-29-2014 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Conrad (Post 1003695)
Zayat's misfortune brings me such joy.

He deserves it

Some clarification:
Okay, bad choice of words...should have said, "Ever since Zayat openly considered conspiring to keep Rachel Alexandra out of the 2009 Preakness (so Pioneerof The Nile, American Pharaoh's daddy) could have a better chance of winning the race, he has had nothing but bad luck and heartbreaking defeats"

Coincidence or karma??
Everyone loves Zayat - how soon y'all forget:mad:

Conrad 11-02-2014 01:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Conrad (Post 1003711)
Calculator is a maiden - has a maiden ever won the BrCup Juvy?

I like Texas Red

Well that went according to plan.

10 pnt move up 11-02-2014 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Conrad (Post 1004882)
Well that went according to plan.

Good pick, gotta wonder how that race places with Calc and AP in the races as they were much better than texas red in the race prior.


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