LOL..I wouldn't say using him in the 2nd or 3rd spots of tri bets is going ga ga over him.I just think he looks like a classy 10f horse who could come get 3rd.He is lazy,but he does have a win over the track.I mean if you're gunna use a lot of horses in 2nd and 3rd,then I really don't know why you would leave him out of that.

My guess on final odds. Feel free to disagree but realize that if one's odds go up then anothers must go down.

1. Cool Coal Man, Julien Leparoux 18-1
2. Tale of Ekati, Eibar Coa 12-1
3. Anak Nakal, Rafael Bejarano 70-1
4. Court Vision, Garret Gomez 21-1
5. Eight Belles, Gabriel Saez 22-1
6. Z Fortune, Robby Albarado 12-1
7. Big Truck, Javier Castellano 27-1
8. Visionaire, Jose Lezcano 40-1
9. Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan 7-1
10. Colonel John, Corey Nakatani 5-1
11. Z Humor, Rene Douglas 90-1
12. Smooth Air, Manoel Cruz 30-1
13. Bob Black Jack, Richard Migliore 25-1
14. Monba, Ramon Dominguez 16-1
15. Adriano, Edgar Prado 40-1
16. Denis of Cork, Calvin Borel 30-1
17. Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez 25-1
18. Recapturetheglory, E. T. Baird 65-1
19. Gayego, Mike Smith 25-1
20. Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux 7-2

Pretty good line.. I would say that Tale of Ekati, Cool Coal Man and Big Truck will be higher significantly higher, while Eight Belles will be significantly lower. Colonel John will be a tad lower I think, as well. Monba seems a little low to me as well, and Denis of Cork is a bit high. I'll post my estimate on the blog, but warning: I know nothing about figuring in takeout.

odds
 

The odds look about right. I will be buying a $2 tri key 10-all-4,5,14,15,20

Monba and Smooth Air are must use underneath. I still feel the winner will come from Pyro BB or CJ. Ihave got to decide because I dont feel I can use all 3 in multi race wagers without making them a losing proposition.I feel that SA will beat at least one of the top three but not all of them.

problem is, there are many horses in the field who could conceivably get into the tri. but yeah, he'd be one i'd play.

i completely disagree about smooth air. as the distances have increased, he has increased the distance between himself and the winner. the horse hasn't won a race since he ran 7f. others i'd use over him.

I agree.
Given his two races in Tampa, his trainer, his running style, his dam-side pedigree, and his favorable post position Big Truck certainly does not strike me as the LEAST likely winner here.
While he isn't close to being the MOST likely to hit the board either, if people are playing deep TRIs or SUPERs, he might be worth including underneath.
If he does somehow go off at 50/1 (which I find improbable) I might also put a little WP bet on him.....just in case.

Im not touting for the win just to hit the board. He runs the same race everytime. Instead of trying to build doubles pk3 pk4 andtris and supers Ill just play the wad on SA to show. The more I think about it this makes the most sense.

I've got him at 35-1 in pool two of the KDFW, so I won't bother with any win action on him on race day. But I will use him in all exotics; he's got a shot to be in the mix.

.....squirel will get a nut every once in a while......

Guys the HAMMER likes the #10 so know what that means


NO way Col John Wins!!!

Just wondering- Anyone think Bob Black Jack can hold on to 3rd or 4th??


Thinking about throwing him on some tickets but doubt he could hold off alot of the closers

5-8-10-13:)

Don't you think that's a tad misleading considering he faced Big Brown last time out?

20/10,14/9,10,14/6,9,10,14.....tri & super:confused: the more i look at monba the more i think he is worth a stab.

No, I don't think he lasts. Of the five speeds, he's drawn the inside and is almost certain to get early and ongoing outside pace pressure. I think he's the first of the lead pack to fold.

I think you would be better off betting a $1 trifecta twice instead of one $2 bet, just in case the tri were to be less than $1,200 and more than $600. Know what I mean?

on a side note I am tossing Colonel John
so you have a shot at cashing a ticket.

Ae - the heaviest $2 in racing

Pyro
Denis of Cork
Z Fortune
Smooth Air
Eight Belles

$2 tri/Sup box....Book it, Boys :D

Rudeboy,

Been looking at ZFourtune is really starting to look good to me as well.

Good luck,

Spyder

$2 tri
 

I'm from up north we don't have to pay tax on tickets over $600.00. I thought they were doing away with that tax down there too.

no

:rolleyes:

So it doesn't matter that he faced what's easily the fastest three-year-old in the country, all that matters is how far behind him he finished?

a horse wins at 7f.
finishes third, about a length back of the winner at 1 1/16.
he finishes second, but almost 8 lengths back, at 1 1/8. so, because he finished second to big brown, i should consider him? but i should ignore the 8 length loss?

besides, isn't big brown running saturday? is he suddenly slower? should i ignore the fact that smooth air is further back the longer the distance becomes when he is facing his longest race yet?

My stab at final odds.....

1. Cool Coal Man, Julien Leparoux 25-1
2. Tale of Ekati, Eibar Coa 20-1
3. Anak Nakal, Rafael Bejarano 60-1
4. Court Vision, Garret Gomez 12-1
5. Eight Belles, Gabriel Saez 20-1
6. Z Fortune, Robby Albarado 15-1
7. Big Truck, Javier Castellano 45-1
8. Visionaire, Jose Lezcano 25-1
9. Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan 8-1
10. Colonel John, Corey Nakatani 4-1
11. Z Humor, Rene Douglas 65-1
12. Smooth Air, Manoel Cruz 30-1
13. Bob Black Jack, Richard Migliore 25-1
14. Monba, Ramon Dominguez 20-1
15. Adriano, Edgar Prado 35-1
16. Denis of Cork, Calvin Borel 25-1
17. Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez 25-1
18. Recapturetheglory, E. T. Baird 70-1
19. Gayego, Mike Smith 25-1
20. Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux 3-1

I'd be shocked (and ecstatic) if Denis of Cork goes off at 25-1. . . But I think he's going to take a ton of $. . .

Yes, you should. Call me crazy, but I think there is at least some correlation between lengths beaten and level of competition.

Besides, he lost by 5, not 8. Is there another horse in the field that you think would've lost by considerably less?

Why do my PP's have Big Brown only winning by 5 and not 8?

Smooth Air ran a faster speed figure going 1 1/8th than he did going 7f.

in 2001 Congaree won the Wood Memorial by what? 2-3 lengths in front of Monarchos. In some ways Smooth Air reminds me of Monarchos.

I am not betting Smooth Air because he was/is sick. Not because of the Derby distance or the number of lengths he was beat by Big Brown.

....on a different note.. why do some want to include Court Vision and not Tale of Ekati?

i thought he had won by 7 or so, my mistake.

in the state of llinois it doesn't matter if you spent $600 to win $500
they want their cut of the $500
they are like the mob.

:mad:

no, I think that was Curlin..

anyway.... I think Bellamy Road err Big Brown has his work cut out for him post does not help him. I don't know.. Maybe everyone will take back and let him go by. :D

he's a favorite
it's the Kentucky Derby

get my

Point Given

Tax Law Sucks
 

That law is brutal. Most of all wager's are placed with after tax money. It's like a double tax. As for the Derby, the last 6 winners have come from 6 different tracks at odds of 4-1 to 50-1, so I don't think there is any real way to figure this race out. Go with your gut..... Go CJ.

I'd love 25-1 on D of C too, What are his odds in pool 3?

26-1 but I don't think that's indicative of what he'll be. . .

I'm not one of those ultra-mathematical pace figure guys, but I try to think out the likely pace scenarios, in the manner such as Brohamer writes about in his chapter on pace in Bet With the Best (except that with a race as long as the Derby, I key on the likely positions of the horses at the second call rather than the first). Smooth Air easily survives the early pace and seems to me likely, of the many pressers in this race, to get first crack at the frontrunners. Also, when you look at the Brisnet pace figures (E1 E2/ LATE), Smooth Air's best recent numbers (96 111/ 94) aren't that far off the Derby par (96 107/ 102). Only Big Brown's recent numbers are better (107 117/ 98), but Smooth Air has a stronger best late pace figure (105) than BB (98).

One difference (among many, I know) between this race and the Florida Derby is that Big Brown is way out in the 20 hole, where he's going to have to expend a lot of energy to obtain at least a decent stalking position (especially with Gayego on his immediate inside, who I think will have to go with BB), whereas Smooth Air will have a much easier time obtaining a good position from the 12 hole.

Bottom line is that both Big Brown and Smooth Air ran a near Kentucky Derby caliber performance in the Florida Derby, in terms of pace. Smooth Air, due to his superior position, has the better chance of improving in this race off that performance, in my opinion.

and if I overpaid my taxes and receive a refund they count that as taxable income.

My gut is telling me Z something is the bet

I slept zero hours last night because I'm pretty certain I have food poisoning. I am beat to hell and would normally not even consider going anywhere today, but I'm sure as heck not letting some unfortunate vittles keep me from Louisville on the first Saturday in May. To top it all off, Kiaran McLaughlin is on my plane.

Except that Smooth Air is BRED to be best at 7/8f, and Monarchos had more of a staying pedigree.

I bet Monarchos
not betting Smooth Air
but the way my luck has gone
Smooth Air is..... a lock

The heaviest $2 in racing is keying 2 horses
Z Fortune & Tale of Ekati
so.. you can toss them with confidence

I am providing a service when I tell you who I am betting. If only there was a way I could market it. Convince the connections of horses to pay me not to bet their horse.
:D

Seems like most people who have seen the works from churchill from DRF to Haskin are raving about Denis of Cork. Sounds like he will run a big race, but is he good enough? Street Sense and Barbaro were atleast accomplished horses going into the Derby.

I thought Z Fortune ran a good race considering he was in the 3 and 4 path for much of his last race. But something tells me he is not as good as Pyro, perhaps this is the year a non spectacular 3 yr old wins the Derby and though I have misgivings that The Jock Shaun couldn't drive his way out of an empty highway. I wouldn't be surprised if Pyro wasn't picking up the pieces late this Saturday and perhaps fall short again or just maybe take the entire thing.