$0

(the $2 exacta probable)X(field size-2)divided by 2.

Thank you.

Race1: Comparing the surface and field in November to what Quality Road faced in the Donn is apples and oranges. A conveyor belt strip with Past The Point and Kiss the Kid et al. vs. what he'll face at the top of the stretch, on a track that will be deeper than Gulfstream on a fall evening where wind may be in his face with the likes of Blame, Zenyatta and Lookin at Lucky coming at him.

Race 2: Zenyatta's Vanity in 2008 was only her 6th start, in very humid conditions. She washed out badly and was never comfortable in the paddock. Even with that, she moved earlier than in any other start to that point and sustained her run for over a half mile in what was arguably her worst (not closest) race.

Tough Tiz's Sis galloped-out past Zenyatta... I thought that was interesting.

But Zenyatta knows to just do enough every time! She's never blowing after a race, and she only lets horses finish as close to her as she wants. The only thing she hasn't quite done yet is master a beef Wellington, but that takes time and she's been consulting with Gordon Ramsay.

P.S. - people are acting like Churchill isn't a highway from time to time on big racing days. You think Monarchos was able to go 1:59 on hay and oats?

That race of Zen's reminded me a little of Afleet Alex's Derby - when he was 11th early and 8+ lengths behind a torrid pace ... he moved a little earlier than he should have considering the pace .. and because of the uncomfortably hot pace and early move he was unable to wear down a dead tired Closing Argument - and unable to hold off Giacomo.

In the Belmont - Rose just waited in 9th behind a crawl - and the slow pace didn't matter because he was so much better than those in front of him.

I'm going to look at my pace figures when the BC Classic draws .. but I think Zenyatta's last few pace figures would have her maybe as much as 25 lengths off of the pace. She'd be in another area code... and Smith simply isn't going to let her completely lose contact with the field - and let horses like Blame and Lookin At Lucky get a 12 length jump on her. Obviously she's going to have to work a whole lot harder early just to keep contact with the field... and who knows what that does to her in the stretch.

You see a horse like Temple City win a stakes race and beat Richard's Kid at Del Mar a few weeks before RK sweeps the Pacific Classic and Goodwood ... Temple City goes to Hawthorne and runs into a torrid pace. He was 9 lengths off of that pace, but it was still SO MUCH faster than he's comfortable going - that the horse just fell apart and was beaten 91 lengths. They're going to run Temple City back in the BC Marathon now - where he would probably open up a 20 length early lead if he went as fast early as he did when he was 9 lengths back at the first pace call at HAW last time.

And where did Monarchos come from? After a 1/2 in 44 4/5, he was 13th, 13 lengths out of it. So, even though it was a highway, it did not carry the speed any further.

If QR goes to the lead and tries to slow the pace he lets other speed horses like Haynesfield, Espoir City, Morning Line and First Dude into the race. He creates a crush on the front end.
The way to take those runners out is to go fast enough early to discourage them. Then, if he takes that approach, what happens when real quality closers like Z, LaL and Blame all come running?
QR was not exactly covered in glory by the comeback performances of horses exiting the Woodward, which may have been the weakest renewal ever of that event. The 2nd and 3rd place runners were each last in their follow up races and clearly have no BC aspirations.

Good stuff. How she reacts to all this remains to be seen, especially on dirt, with dirt closers ahead of her and potential bad or wide trips not considered.

Far too much is being made of that.

Both of those horses ran too bad to be true.

Mythical Power ran a 50 Beyer in the Kelso and was dead last at every single call ... he looked like a wounded animal.

Tranquill Manner was beaten 22 lengths by Haynesfield and was noticeably off with his action. He ran like a 70 Beyer. One start before the Woodward, he beat Birdrun who came back and ran excellent.

Is that supposed to mean that Quality Road would have been beaten by Tizway by 23 lengths - and beaten by Haynesfield by 17 lengths?

The track was extremely slow in the 2nd half of the Saratoga meet ... for whatever unknown reason, you're more apt to see horses get screwed up after racing on slower than par dirt tracks.