Derby Trail Forums - 10/30 Notes: Rumors have Gio Ponti leaning to lawn

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ateamstupid

11-03-2010 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms (Post 714473)

Be careful what you wish for.

As a son of Tale of the Cat, I've always thought that a mile is Gio Ponti's best distance. After he won the Kilroe Mile last year (defeating eventual Woodbine Mile heroine Ventura), and in the absence of top mile races here, Clement took a chance that he could get 10F in the Manhattan against a relatively weak group, and he succeeded. They then became committed to a "distance" (by US standards) campaign with the horse.

His recent win in the Shadwell Mile was very impressive; he'll get plenty of pace with Sidney's Candy and Get Stormy in the field; and he has perhaps the best turf rider in Dominguez aboard. Compared to the likes of a past-his-prime Kip Deville and Whatsthescript (2008) and Cowboy Cal and Courageous Cat (2009), Gio Pinti will certainly present the most formidable American opponent that Goldikova has faced in her three Breeders' Cup tries.

Come on. He's the best of a dreadful group of U.S. turf horses. His Shadwell wasn't very impressive, it was fine. He'd have to put in an easy lifetime best to beat Goldikova and Paco Boy and if he's under 10-1, that's a bad bet.

hockey2315

11-03-2010 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715564)

Come on. He's the best of a dreadful group of U.S. turf horses. His Shadwell wasn't very impressive, it was fine. He'd have to put in an easy lifetime best to beat Goldikova and Paco Boy and if he's under 10-1, that's a bad bet.

Really?

ateamstupid

11-03-2010 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 715565)

Really?

What the hell was so impressive about it? He beat freaking Society's Chairman by a length and ran slower than Proviso.

hockey2315

11-03-2010 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715571)

What the hell was so impressive about it? He beat freaking Society's Chairman by a length and ran slower than Proviso.

Maybe your opinion of Gio stems in part from your feelings about Proviso. . . I don't share your view of her. Gio couldn't really have done it any easier and got another overconfident ride from Ramon. You know the margin doesn't matter there - he came home extremely quick and got up comfortably.

ateamstupid

11-03-2010 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 715578)

They're both the best of bad divisions and are outclassed by Goldikova and Paco Boy. You don't agree with this?

blackthroatedwind

11-03-2010 10:50 AM

I thought Gio Ponti's win at Keeneland was decidedly mediocre.

hockey2315

11-03-2010 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715581)

They're both the best of bad divisions and are outclassed by Goldikova and Paco Boy. You don't agree with this?

I don't really see the point in using Paco Boy or boxing those two like you seem to want to - Goldikova has already asserted her superiority over him. I'll use Goldi and protect with Gio and Proviso in case she gets sucked up into the pace.

ateamstupid

11-03-2010 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 715584)

Please. He's hardly getting trounced by her. He's lost by two necks and a half-length and in my book that makes him a hell of a lot more likely to win this than Gio Ponti or Proviso.

blackthroatedwind

11-03-2010 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715586)

Please. He's hardly getting trounced by her. He's lost by two necks and a half-length and in my book that makes him a hell of a lot more likely to win this than Gio Ponti or Proviso.

Have you watched the three races between Goldikova and Paco Boy this year?

You should. He can't get by her when it matters. He's Alydar to her Affirmed.

Scav	11-03-2010 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 715588)

Have you watched the three races between Goldikova and Paco Boy this year?

You should. He can't get by her when it matters. He's Alydar to her Affirmed.

Exactly

hockey2315

11-03-2010 11:03 AM

Isn't she better on firm turf? We know she can ship. . . We have no idea if he can ship and no reason to believe he'll improve on firm turf. It's not like he's lighting things up when he's not facing her. His last win came over the very mediocre Ouqba and the Lord Shanakill, who's better at 7f. His last win before that came over Pressing, who's like a German and Turkish Group 1 horse. I guess I could use Paco Boy as a last resort w/ some of my longer priced stuff so I don't get knocked out of the late Pk4 in the first leg, but to treat them as equals just because she's barely beating him seems like a stretch.

ateamstupid

11-03-2010 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 715588)

Have you watched the three races between Goldikova and Paco Boy this year?

You should. He can't get by her when it matters. He's Alydar to her Affirmed.

Yeah, I have. He was wider than she was in the Foret and got a little stuck late in the Queen Anne. Affirmed/Alydar would be the analogy I'd make too though.

My point wasn't that he's going to beat her, it's that if she loses, it's extremely likely to be him and not Gio Ponti or Proviso that takes her down.

RockHardTen1985

11-03-2010 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715595)

Yeah, I have. He was wider than she was in the Foret and got a little stuck late in the Queen Anne.

My point wasn't that he's going to beat her, it's that if she loses, it's extremely likely to be him and not Gio Ponti or Proviso that takes her down.

Paco Boy cant beat her, Id rather take a chance with Get Stormy, Sidneys Candy stealing.... One of them quits, stumbles whatever the other gets brave. Or Proviso then Paco Boy who has proven MANY TIMES, HE CANT BEAT HER. I would rather give someone else a chance at 4-10x the price.

blackthroatedwind

11-03-2010 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715595)

I don't agree with a lot of this. I agree that Gio Ponti and, especially, Proviso are unlikely to beat her. I would be more worried about a relative unknown like Sidney's Candy wiring the field.

I don't feel he's a major win candidate but I'm not completely against the Usual QT.

ateamstupid

11-03-2010 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 715600)

I thought he ran the better race than Court Vision at Woodbine, so yeah, he's not impossible. I take it you're singling Goldikova then?

Scav	11-03-2010 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 715600)

FWIW, I thought Sidney's Candy work look horrible over the turf at Churchill. I wasn't on The Usual Q.T until someone I respect called me and said some well regarded Cali people were pushing him pretty heavy. An underneath candidate for me.

hockey2315

11-03-2010 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715595)

You really think he had a harder trip than she did in the Foret? She was up close to what seems like a lively enough pace while he was doing the usual Euro thing, drafting behind horses in the two path (big deal). She gave up the lead, and then took it right back pretty easily. He had every chance to outkick her.

I understand what you're saying and obviously just disagree about how good he is and how good the Americans are. We both think she's a very likely winner.

hockey2315

11-03-2010 11:13 AM

If Sidney's Candy got his prep in and validated his last performance, I'd like him a lot. . . now I don't trust him at all.

RockHardTen1985

11-03-2010 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 715607)

Get Stormy is not impossible IMO. DRF is reporting Sidneys Candy is not working well, not finishing well. He runs off early, stops... Stormy takes over... He could get brave at over 20-1. Why is it unreasonable to think a horse like Sidneys Candy might just run like **** off this layoff vs this type?

hockey2315

11-03-2010 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 715614)

I'm a fan of Get Stormy, but he has 0 shot in this race. He spits the bit when he doesn't get things his own way.

Scav	11-03-2010 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 715614)

Impossible

CSC	11-03-2010 11:16 AM

Firmer ground will help Paco Boy, having Hughes opt for a riding title is also an add on bonus, Moore should give him a good trip, he's a very strong finisher, tactically if he can get 1st run on Goldikova he can certainly turn the tables on her. However the negative is he does seem to be getting alot of attention right now and she is a very formidable opponent.

hockey2315

11-03-2010 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 715617)

Firmer ground will help Paco Boy, having Hughes opt for a riding title is also an add on bonus, Moore should give him a good trip, he's a very strong finisher, tactically if he can get 1st run on Goldikova he can certainly turn the tables. However he does seem to be getting alot of attention right now and she is a very formidable opponent.

Will someone please enlighten me as to why this is the general consensus? I don't see it.

NTamm1215

11-03-2010 11:22 AM

The thing about beating her is that she's very handy. It seems like she's adaptable to any scenario and Peslier knows he can do pretty much anything with her and still have success. If you compare the internal fractions of the Foret to the Grand Criterium for 2YOs on the same card at the same distance (the race Utley exits) she was 1.3 seconds quicker to the 800m mark and 0.9 seconds faster at the finish. What that probably means is that Wooton Bassett would win the Juv Turf by open lengths, but that's neither here nor there.

A very strong pace going two turns could help Paco Boy's chances but she'd need to be very rank and falter late, something it looks like she's just not going to do.

I like Gio Ponti's chances more than most and don't necessarily think his credentials for this race should be judged solely based on the Shadwell.

blackthroatedwind

11-03-2010 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715603)

I thought he ran the better race than Court Vision at Woodbine, so yeah, he's not impossible. I take it you're singling Goldikova then?

I hadn't really thought about it. But, no....I will certainly use Sidney's Candy.

hockey2315

11-03-2010 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 715629)

The thing about beating her is that she's very handy. It seems like she's adaptable to any scenario and Peslier knows he can do pretty much anything with her and still have success. If you compare the internal fractions of the Foret to the Grand Criterium for 2YOs on the same card at the same distance (the race Utley exits) she was 1.3 seconds quicker to the 800m mark and 0.9 seconds faster at the finish. What that probably means is that Wooton Bassett would win the Juv Turf by open lengths, but that's neither here nor there.

A very strong pace going two turns could help Paco Boy's chances but she'd need to be very rank and falter late, something it looks like she's just not going to do.

I like Gio Ponti's chances more than most and don't necessarily think his credentials for this race should be judged solely based on the Shadwell.

Very good point.

CSC	11-03-2010 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 715620)

Will someone please enlighten me as to why this is the general consensus? I don't see it.

The track here could make all the difference, if the BC were being held in Europe I too would have reservations about his chances. You don't need me to tell you Paco Boy has an exceptional turn of foot, he doesn't need to wind up as say Workforce needs to, to get going. Tactically he has always been running at Goldikova, but over here if Moore can get him in a position of where Goldikova was in last year, it would make things interesting atleast. She was farther back than Peslier probably wanted, if that was PB she was running at, the result could have turned out different.

hockey2315

11-03-2010 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 715635)

The track here could make all the difference, if the BC were being held in Europe I too would have reservations about his chances. You don't need me to tell you Paco Boy has an exceptional turn of foot, he doesn't need to wind up as say Workforce needs to, to get going. Tactically he has always been running at Goldikova, but over here if Moore can get him in a position of Goldikova was in last year, it would make things interesting atleast.

WHAT IS YOUR EVIDENCE THAT THE TRACK WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE? Clearly she likes firm turf. . . a lot.

It's worthless to argue about an even money shot this much, but I just don't see why everyone has come to the conclusion that the turf condition will move up Paco Boy so much without moving Goldikova equally (or more). Weren't they considering scratching her from the Foret because it was too soft?

ateamstupid

11-03-2010 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 715629)

The thing about beating her is that she's very handy. It seems like she's adaptable to any scenario and Peslier knows he can do pretty much anything with her and still have success.

I agree with this. It was really something to behold in the Foret when he let Regal Parade blow past her and didn't move a muscle.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I like Gio Ponti's chances more than most and don't necessarily think his credentials for this race should be judged solely based on the Shadwell.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Very good point.

I don't know if that was directed at me, but I'm certainly not doing that. I simply took issue with the idea that his Shadwell was 'very impressive'. I don't like him because I think he's slower than last year and has gotten fat beating terrible U.S. turf horses.

CSC	11-03-2010 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 715638)

I mean't the configuration, not the surface. It's tighter and the stretch is shorter, tactically it is a whole different ballgame over here. Over there it is cover and long runs in the straight, you just can't compare the 2 tracks.

hockey2315

11-03-2010 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 715641)

She clearly likes a more American configuration and probably has less of a European style than he does. I'm still not getting it, but whatever.

Dahoss

11-03-2010 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 715629)

I like Gio Ponti's chances more than most and don't necessarily think his credentials for this race should be judged solely based on the Shadwell.

I agree and I think he has a very good shot to win in here. I'll be using him and Goldikova equally and maybe Paco Boy or Beethoven in pick 4's. If Sidney's Candy wins, he beats me because I think the unplanned layoff is a concern and he's just not going to run off against a full field like he did last time.

CSC	11-03-2010 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 715642)

She clearly likes a more American configuration and probably has less of a European style than he does. I'm still not getting it, but whatever.

Like I said she is a formidable opponent, look at last year's mile, she was much the best IMO, however I don't think she can afford the same trip this year, I make no illusions about it she is the horse to beat, but if PB runs his race, I do think this year's task will be much harder. He's had some luckless runs ie. Prix Du Moulin, and has encountered races on less than his favorable going. I doubt he's going to be a secret, but you have to atleast consider him as one of the more logical ones if Goldikova falls.

NTamm1215

11-03-2010 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715639)

I agree with this. It was really something to behold in the Foret when he let Regal Parade blow past her and didn't move a muscle.

I don't know if that was directed at me, but I'm certainly not doing that. I simply took issue with the idea that his Shadwell was 'very impressive'. I don't like him because I think he's slower than last year and has gotten fat beating terrible U.S. turf horses.

I was just saying it in general, not specifically to you.

I think that Gio Ponti has certainly benefited from a time period when US based turf horses are awful, that goes without saying. However, I don't necessarily think his 2010 races have been any worse than 2009. The Dubai World Cup was underrated all things considered.

I'll give him the Manhattan off the bench and it's not like Winchester hasn't backed it up just a bit. He basically did his best Zenyatta imitation in the Man O War coming from well off a brutally slow pace. Ramon did not give him a good ride in the Arl Million at all and the paid the price.

I've also been of the opinion for quite some time that a mile is his best distance. If I'm right then I'll win, if I'm wrong then I think Goldikova goes three in a row. I'm not spending one cent on Sidney's Candy.

ateamstupid

11-03-2010 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 715648)

I've also been of the opinion for quite some time that a mile is his best distance. If I'm right then I'll win, if I'm wrong then I think Goldikova goes three in a row. I'm not spending one cent on Sidney's Candy.

To me, that's the only way he has a shot. Because if he runs the races he ran at 10-11 furlongs on Saturday, he'll get stomped.

Indian Charlie

11-03-2010 12:03 PM

I believe The QT and Candy are the two most likely upsetters in here.

My impression of Gio is that he's a horse that can beat low quality fields, but when going up against genuinely good horses, he runs a few placings back.

Dahoss

11-03-2010 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 715673)

Have you looked at Gio's PP's? What are you basing it on?

NTamm1215

11-03-2010 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 715673)

I think it's kind of funny that you question Gio Ponti's ability against genuinely good horses after you said you think The Usual QT and Sidney's Candy can win the race. I'd take any of the also rans in just the Shadwell (save Acting Zippy) against Kid Edward, Alphie's Bet, Victor's Cry, and Battle of Hastings any day of the week.

Indian Charlie

11-03-2010 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 715682)

Let me amend what I said. Or at least how I said it.

I like QT's and SC's chances at their odds MUCH more than I like GP's chances at his low odds.

I also think they both have a nicer turn of foot than GP.

SC is a complete wild card in this race. He could win, or he could jump the rail, who knows.

I would take QT in a heads up against GP.

chucklestheclown

11-03-2010 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 715562)

I thought there were vet issues.

There probably were and he won't be anywhere but 4th for me. And that's a stretch.

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