Will you two nerds take this offline?

Get a new avatar.

I suppose Big Brown is a little passe. Sort of like GPK's closet.

I think this is a really interesting Belmont....

Overbet (even if just slightly):
Nehro
Master of Hounds

Underbet:
Shackleford

Neither Over/Under:
Animal Kingdom
Mucho Macho Man

I generally agree with everyone who thinks Shackleford might run out of gas, but I think there's still a chance he pulls a Da Tara and just bottoms-out the field. If Animal Kingdom runs his race, he should be there. There's no doubt he and Shackleford right now are the top two in the division.

Nehro is everyone's wise-guy horse, but I'm less enthused. He's an obvious contender, but he's going to be overbet (I think, anyway) based off the fact he skipped the Preakness, is lightly-raced etc. I'll use, and hope to beat.

To make a big score, you have to beat a few of the obvious guys somewhere. I'm going to try and get Santiva somewhere on the board. He was probably short in the Derby, and ran well enough to justify a move forward in here at a good price. He has the pedigree, too.

If it comes up wet, Brilliant Speed enters the conversation a bit. Not sure about him yet on a dry track.

I like Brilliant Speed, his derby was similar to Summer Bird's.

:D

That's the price horse that I think should be on the board too.

In the Derby, Brilliant Speed was much wider and had the "tougher" trip. I might hedge myself on Santiva going forward... I still don't like Nehro that much though.

I realize Animal Kingdom is bred for the turf, but his pre-derby workout obviously showed he moves really well on the dirt.

But watching Brilliant Speed's win in the Bluegrass again, he appears to really move like a turf horse, and I just can't get myself to like him....at all.

Does anyone think a change of tactics might happen on say a Ruler On Ice or Prime Cut, and they break looking for the lead?

I guess even if that does happen, Shackleford can rate off a target, and he probably has the same questions about distance as before...

I think people are ignoring the potential for Ruler On Ice to add to the early pace w/ the addition of blinkers and some fast recent works, and think Prime Cut might be close too.

Shackleford is 16-1 in the early betting... what?

I hope it stays that way.

It's early, but even in the doubles to Master Of Hounds is getting hit hard.... his DD with Birdrun is $17, versus $37 for Shackleford.

Where u seeing the early odds at?

They showed them on Versus... then there was a few people from on-track who were posting them to Twitter too.

Cool thanks

Odds reflect on-track betting only.

Good to know. Thanks. But the double does not. And the double is 2x the payoff to Shackleford as Master of Hounds.

Way too early to think those early wagers are an indicator of race day odds; but it sure shows the media splurge and expert picks of Master of Hounds have dropped his odds, and at the seemingly sole expense of the disrespected Shackleford.

If it's wet, I'll box Shackleford and Mucho Macho Man

Windward Islands for the upset in the Manhattan. :$:

Ruler On Ice, like many Kelly Breen horses, has worked fast before the addition of blinkers. He blew out :46 and change before the Sunland race and :58 and change before the Tesio and didn't approach the lead in either race. Even if he does get sent early, I still have a tough time seeing how they don't crawl down the backstretch. It just isn't a field with much pace.

"Local" early odds...

1. Master of Hounds, 5-1
2. Stay Thirsty, 12-1
3. Ruler On Ice, 42-1
4. Santiva, 8-1
5. Brilliant Speed, 9-1
6. Nehro, 5-1
7. Monzon, 55-1
8. Prime Cut, 18-1
9. Animal Kingdom, 5-2
10. Mucho Macho Man, 6-1
11. Isn’t He Perfect, 39-1
12. Shackleford, 16-1

I think this will change significantly ( esp Shackelford ) as it represents "on-track" only. A better indicator may be the Brooklyn/Belmont DD will pays where Shackleford is just over 2x's Animal Kingdom's price, and Master of Hounds is the same will-pay as Animal Kingdom


http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=42640

It also represents NYRA Rewards.

It really depends on how big the pool is. Early betting at CD is local only, and though I thought it changed, many here said it doesn't that much.

I just cannot believe that Shackleford will be 16-1 come post time, especially if it's wet.

Who are the horses in the Belmont that would do best on a wet track?

Acorn: Turb Descent, Savvy Supreme, Snow Fall
True North: Phil, Trappe Shot, Funnybone
Stephens: Arch Traveler, JJ, Bold Warrior
Just A Game: Gypsy, Fantasia, Strike the Bell
Manhattan: Viscount Nelson, Gio Ponti, Prince Will
Belmont: Nehro, AK, Master

Travelin Man for third in the Stephens.

I give up, its been a very frustrating Belmont Saturday for me. Only a Master of Hounds win will save my weekend

Ruler on Ice was the only horse in the race with an off track win. Now, granted it wasn't a particularly good off track win, but nonetheless.

For those of us not from the NYC who don't get to see Andy Serling regularly, he was pretty phenomenal through the card with his pre-race analysis.

I prefer crazy and odd results over dumb wagering plays and mistakes. I didn't make any mistakes on the race... Not in a millions years would I have played the winner.

But if I were to have bet Ruler On Ice and Stay Thirsty, I'd cry about the exacta payoff.

$2 Exacta - 928.00
$2 Superfecta- 74,052.00
$2 Trifecta - 8,268.00

Feels like they should be higher.

Mission Approved:wf:zz::wf

Thank you. That's very nice of you to say.

That pissed me off after having C S Silk in the race before. They should just stop running turf races in America if horses like that are going to win races like the Manhattan.

Gio Ponti has the dubious distinction of losing to both Mission Approved (almost lost to him last year as well) and Interpatation.

Gio Ponti was the star of the card.. Why Gio Ponti is even still running in 10f races is an indictment on two levels..The market for decent G1 grass stallions and just how awful G1 routing turf horses are in this country.

They let both of them walk on the front end. Mission Approved was allowed to go 1:17, and he got brave. What were the other jocks thinking allowing him to do that?

It was one thing for CS Silk to do that, but wasn't anybody riding in the Manhattan paying attention to the Just a Game?

I've now noticed my horrendous LIRR grammar and syntax from my earlier post, and I do apologize.

Beyer Figures:

It's Tricky 105
Trappe Shot 112
Justin Phillip 96
CS Silk 101
Mission Approved 103
Ruler on Ice 100