So you are saying that winning a G1 on turf won't help his value as a stallion BECAUSE he doesn't come from a fashionable sire line? I think you have that completely backwards. If a horse comes from a fashionable stallion line already, doesn't it stand to reason that they would need to prove LESS on the track to be considered a valuable future stallion? Therefore a horse like Nobiz would actually increase more in value by being a G1 winner on dirt and turf than a horse by someone like Storm Cat or AP Indy would for accomplishing that same thing, becasuse their presumed value is already higher (I'm still trying to figure out why you included Street Sense in your original list of fashionable sires).

As a completely different point, I think most people considering the value of a sire are also smart enough to look at the dam-side of the pedigree as well. If people want Storm Cat (I know I wouldn't, but a lot of people seem to disagree) they can find it in Nobiz, since he is out of a Storm Cat mare.

With an under-performing Albert the Great as his sire (and Go For Gin, now only a regional sire in MD, as his grand-sire), no matter how much NoBiz accomplished on the track, I could never see his initial stud fee as being higher than $15,000.

In comparison, Street Sense is a far more accomplished horse, by a sire who's likely to be standing next year for somewhere in the neighborhood of $100,000. That's why he is going to be a hot commodity next year, as will Hard Spun (by Danzig) and Any Given Saturday (by $225K sire, Distorted Humor). Whether they pan out, that's an entirely different question. Just ask the folks who bred to Point Given and Empire Maker at $100K their first seasons at stud.

Was anybody suggesting that Nobiz would or should stand for a higher fee than Street Sense? I don't think so. If anybody did they are crazy. KY_Sasquash listed Street Sense in a list with established sires like AP Indy, Dynaformer, and Storm Cat. That didn't make sense to me.

No, see parisixfarm's comment. explains it perfectly. obviously another G1 would help his stallion resume, but with his bloodlines he going to have to "move up his mares" before he gets top broodmares. an example would be Dynamformer, he started out at $7,500 and has climbed the ladder to where he is now.

A G1 winning son of AP Indy, Storm Cat, or Gone West has a higher ceiling for a stud fee than a son of Albert the Great. Nobiz would have to dance every dance and repeatedly win G1's for him to stand above $20k-breeders arent going to pay an unreasonable stud fee on him when they can go to lines from these lines for similar or less fees. Street Sense was a typo. I meant Street Cry.

meant street cry. and yes i'd consider street sense a hot line right now since (pun intended) he's producing progeny that are winning on turf,dirt, poly, long, short, filly, colt-he's quite versatile and doesnt seem to have many weaknesses.

Dynaformer entered stud 17 years ago. I think you'll need to come up with another example. $7,500 was alot of money back then. I don't think you can assume anything nowadays when it comes to stud fees. Especially if NoBiz turns out to be a sound horse that dominates the Turf division for the next year or two.

Im not saying that he'd be the favorite, but at 20-1 (probably longer on race day) I think he'd have a great shot to hit he board; dont know if he could win, but I'd sure like to see him try. The only bad race that he ran in the spring was in the Derby, which can be excused and he was beaten 4 lengths by Any Given Saturday in the Dwyer. His bloodlines suggest that he's finally maturing and maybe he was too immature in the spring to keep up with the other 3yos(certainly ran that way). Now the tight turns at Monmouth might be to his liking, but I think he'd only have to worry about Street Sense, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, who probably wont like the tight turns too, and Any Given Saturday, who's last race wasnt the most impressive so I dont think its that unrealistic of a spot for him.

That's it?

Haskin is clueless. Nobiz doesn't even have the most e turn of foot in his own barn. Nobiz is slow. All these writers that hyped Nobiz for some reason earlier in the year are covering their butt. Nobiz is not in the BC Mile because he is not that fast.

When you consider 4th place is $250,000 and 5th is still over $100,000 it doesn't sound so daunting.

How much faster than the 34 and 4 he came home in do you want him to run?

His owner is worth a zillion dollars. Running him in a tough race like that and hoping for scaps makes no sense whatsoever.

The horse has had a full campaign this year. He should run where he belongs.

I don't see anything wrong with an attempt in the Classic. In my opinion, Nobiz looks like a better horse now. He looks more relaxed during his races, which is very important for him. I'm not saying that this will put him in the same class as horses like Curlin, Street Sense, Lawyer Ron and maybe Any Given Saturday but I honestly can't see any of the other probable entrants to the race that I wouldn't say he could compete with. As mentioned, AGS didn't look good at all in his last race, SS doesn't appear to really have improved since the spring and there is no telling how much the JCGC might have taken out of Curlin and/or Lawyer Ron. So going in, he might be the fifth best horse and if his improvement over the second half of the year is not only coincidental with his switch to grass, it's not too hard for me to see a scenario where he could make the super or the tri. If the attempt goes bad, put him back on the grass for next year or wait till all of the big boys from this year are retired and try dirt again later. I don't see where there is a losing side to taking a shot.

I agree with you about the higher ceiling.
But my point is that if you take a horse like Empire Maker, and ask the question 'would winning a G1 on turf have enhanced his original stud fee,' what is the answer? I don't think it would have made much of a difference because he was a son of a noted sire in Unbridled that had already shown flashes of talent. Therefore his original stud fee was already going to be - as we saw - extremely high.
A horse with a "lesser pedigree" like Nobiz has more to gain by continued on-track performance, because - although his ceiling is unquestionably lower than a horse like Empire Maker - he can only reach that ceiling with sustained on-track performance. He can't simply run eight times, show some talent, and then command top dollar. The only way he will generate any interest at all as a stallion is by demonstrating top on-track performances. I think being a G1 winner on turf would help him on that front.

The Belmont turf is so hard that maidens are running 6f in 108 and change. His race was not that fast and he is still nothing more than a 95-100 beyer horse. The 3yr old turf horses in america are terrible as usual, but Nobiz can't compete with the top turf horses in the world or even america. Horses like Kitten's Joy, Showing Up, and even Kip Deville were much faster 3yr old turf horses. Nobiz is just well placed by a trainer that understands that horse can't compete with the top dirt horses or the top grass horses. He could move up next year, like an After Market did, but if you look at the career of Nobiz, he appears to be no faster today than he was at 2.

Recent examples are Hall of Fame horses like Holy Bull, Skip Away and Silver Charm. Neither of them was by fashionable sires, so their initial stud fees were relatively modest in comparison to their race track heroics. (I'm not commenting on their success at stud, although in the interest of full disclosure, I do currently have a mare in foal to Holy Bull.)

Right now, Nobiz would stand for about $7500. That is it. A son of Albert the Great just won't fetch much. A grade 3 winning son of AP Indy would fetch more than a grade 1 winning son of Albert the Great, especially if he is viewed as a turf sire.

I could see Nobiz in Florida or NY, not KY.

People complain about the small fields in the big races these days but then when we have a horse that could likely be one of the five or six best horses in the race, for the $5 million BC Classic, people are saying it's stupid to consider him. So should any horse that's not considered one of those top five or six also be withdrawn from consideration also and just search for an easier spot, maybe the Cigar or the Clark? Yeah, let's leave the Classic with a five horse field because it's no use taking a shot if u aren't one of the top five.

Nobiz has 'nobiz' in KY, is that what you're saying? I kid. :D

See, that to me just says the opposite. If you don't care about the money then building a stallion resume isn't a big concern so why not take the shot in the BC Classic even at 30/1?

Really, I think it all should come down to two factors. First, do they think he turned the corner in his last race and is now a better horse than he was earlier in the year. And two, do they feel based on the Derby that he isn't going to excel at 10 furlongs on the dirt or do they feel there were other factors that day that accounted for the poor showing. My guess is that they don't think he had an excuse in the Derby and didn't ever want 10 furlongs on the dirt which is why the Classic isn't an option.