I think I will be near the top of the list when it comes to burning money on Saturday... I usually do on BC day... oh wait.. what's the topic of this thread? :rolleyes:

Kev, that ground at Arlington was not good, they are nuts, it was yielding easily. It absolutely poured here following up to Million day here for like four days. They are full of bologna with that good ground....I could take my heal and put it in the ground by about an inch in my backyard that week

He finished 3rd or 4th in the French Derby on softish ground didn't he? Apologies if i'm thinking of a different horse.

I'm getting everything wrong at the moment.

Is this generally what happens with the turf in America? The tracks calling it quicker than it actually is?

I noticed that Monmouth were still calling their turf "good" until about ten minutes ago when they finally changed it to yielding, even though the trainers were saying it was good to soft yesterday.

yep he was 3rd in the french derby, then disappointed at the curragh (on bottomless ground!).

The fact that he hasn't run a winning race at 10f, maybe? That he bypassed a chance to try 10f against a decent field to go 9f against allowance horses and didn't beat them very impressively? That he was getting weight from Curlin in the Haskell?

Not saying that I feel this way, just imagining what might be said.

in the arlington million a few years ago, a top euro ran even tho it wasn't his best distance. yet he was felt to be so much better then the field, there was no doubt he'd win.
he didn't win. finished fourth.

ground and distance matters a great deal with turfers. dylan thomas is good, but they would have to have doubts. go in with too little respect for the competition, and you may end up wishing you hadn't been so confident in your own chances. i wouldn't be surprised at all if he scratched.

i'm not liking any givens chances today either.

Scav-

You are 100% correct. Arlington, like many U.S. tracks, seems hesitant to label their course yielding or soft. I remember it had been raining all week.....I remember After Market's connections scratching due to the turf condition. So a horse like Honey Ryder clearly doesn't seem to relish soft going and should be played against.

Any Given Saturday was so sharp for the Haskell there's no way Curlin was beating him that day. As for his 10f record, he tried that once and had the 18 hole. I'd hardly say the evidence is against him at this point.

Jim, he lives alone for a reason.

whats wrong with an outlandish opinion? thats what a longshot is.
what you did wrong is that you hound certain peoples opinions over and over as if you are superior. of course it was likely that he would run, you're not a hero to point that out.

Am i not allowed an honest opinion?

I thought it was very unlikely that Dylan Thomas would run with all of the rain forecast, given what they have said about soft turf before with this. Anyway, who has said he is sure to run? Last i read on any of the racing websites was that Aidan O'Brien was "very concerned about soft ground".

I gave valid reasons why they could (and maybe should scratch him) and i got my head biten off.

I take it you have never been wrong before? :rolleyes:

Am i bothered that it looks like i was wrong.

It's just like someone making a call saying a 100/1 will win.

The 75% was my opinion, if he was my horse in the exact same situation i wouldn't run him. I don't think he has much of a chance on soft ground, but i don't know how good your horses are on soft, either.

Apart from the managers at coolmore america where did i sound like i had inside information? I gave my own reasons for why i thought he wouldn't run. What is wrong with that?

I can understand the posts if i cam on and said "Dylan Thmoas won't run" without giving any reasons whatsoever.

Anyway, it's done. If he runs, he runs and i don't think he will win. That again is my opinion, you don't have to agree with me.

DT predators going on tilt early on BC day.

thats really funny, that you were protecting the accuracy of information for people who take this stuff seriously. let me ask you if you really think people who take this stuff seriously will look on this board and then read someones opinion that Dylan Thomas might scratch and then act upon it? thats the definition of someone that doesn't take this stuff seriously.

so, from the guy who fancies himself as the leader of the board predators, i'm bestowed the title of board robin hood? i'm honored.