Hard not to like The Factor's race - he missed some training coming in and glorified sack of oats Garcia didn't need to have him so forward early on.

Horses like him often dominate the route preps and help collapse the pace at a realtive short price in the KY Derby. If he stays healthy - it's going to be a bitch to beat him at 8.5f or 9f

4/5 with indian sway sratching was a belated valentine:{>::$:
this horse gets a mile all day long and i dont believe 1 1/4 is beyond reach with bafferts skill it may be a stretch but not compltely beyond his breeding the california best of the west rep for the derby

I'm not sure about that - the horse who went with The Factor finished last by 18 lengths ...

They went 1:07 1/5 for 6fs - and the final 1/8th of this race was run in 13.03 over a race track that is obviously yielding crazy fast times. I thought Sway Away got a great setup and his late run was an optical illusion as they crawled at the end.

Speed is typically leathel in Derby preps at 8.5fs or 9fs. Everyone is so worried about finishing up well at the tail end of those races - and no early pressure leads to the superior horses at shorter distances dominating.

Look at the Risen Star - a lot of naturally very fast horses - and they loaf early. Machen lost the Risen Star Stakes because of the tactics used in his N1X alw win. If Howard didn't try to transform him into something he's not - he wins that alw race by 20 lengths on an easy lead - and wires the Risen Star yesterday. Instead he puts an anchor to him and earns a 24 pace figure in his alw race. Now, he's got to try winning the Risen Star closing wide into a soft pace against a pace aided horse like Mucho Macho Man who was super in the Remsen.

When Sway Away passed him (on the gallop out,) The Factor put him away again.

looked to me that garcia eased em late but i will watch again
that first 1/4 was grueling and he still had gas i like this horse alot

Garcia didn't ease anything - he was out of horse in the last furlong.

7fs is a very tough distance when you have to run hard the whole way.

watch it again my friend he was not working him at all!!!
he put the whip away and was not even urging him
i just watched it again on bloodhorse

They did crawl at the end and Sway Away got a nice setup. But I think it's the kind of race he'll get a lot out of. His trainer was 6% off this type of layoff the last 5 years, with an ROI of $0.73. He showed enough speed as a 2 year old to think he'll be able to stay a lot closer than he did today as the distances increase and if we're talking about the Derby, he's the one I want out of the race.

The Factor is obviously talented, but it's hard for me to believe he's going to stretch out much farther effectively and how much longer is Baffert going to be able to keep him sound?

Not working him at all? He was in a full drive the entire length of the stretch. He had no horse left at all.

Sway Away is getting some love and Im really not sure why. Just because someone knows the connections/owner does not make a horse better then it is.
Sway Away sat last off of a crazy duel, saved all the ground and only made up ground at the very end as the best horse started to get a bit tired. He has every right to get a bit tired. Its his 3rd career start, first in 2 months off of very few workouts.

All of facebook was in love with Sway Away's race - I don't disagree that he could move forward .. but closing sprinters with perfect setups have a very poor record in Derby preps - where The Factor - if he stays healthy - will almost be assured of cakewalks in his final preps.

A horse like Giacomo was everybody's standout #1 Derby prospect in California going into his 3yo year. He got wired by Going Wild at 9fs. Got wired badly by Consolidator going 8.5fs. And the Santa Anita Derby was a merry-go-round race with Roger Stein's General John B 2nd at like 87/1.

A horse like Lookin At Lucky didn't even belong on the same racetrack with Sidney's Candy at 8.5 and 9fs last year - everyone wants to finish in those races. If The Factor is healthy - he could Balto Star them in his next two

You're not supposed to win a 7f race by running the first 6f in 107:30.

I don't care about Facebook or the other stuff. If you said I had to bet The Factor or Sway Away in the Derby, I'm betting Sway Away.

Bonde isn't known for having them ready off the shelf. It was his first start in 6 months. He finished well enough to think he'll get a lot out of the race. He has more speed than he showed today...at least he did last year and I think he'll be more involved early next time.

ive watched the race three times his tongue was not draggin
there is gas left in this horse;s tank martin was not urging the riens at all at the end
we will have to see next time when he goes longer
i believe garcia had the wire and sway measured
he has worked this horse knows the track and this was not his first rodeo

I don't think the time is right at all. I find it hard to believe they got the second quarter in 21 and 2 and the third in 23 and 4. Something isn't right.

How are 2 people seeing the same race so differently? Ill go to Cal Racing now and be back in 5 minutes with what really happened.

Why in the hell would you want to bet on either of them in the Derby?

Sway Away hasn't even attempted to route yet - he's basically a very lightly raced closing sprinter with a little dressed up form now - who is way behind in the game and has to play catch up.

Maybe he really is a true router all along ... certainly possible... but why not let him prove it first next time out - while he's likely going to be wildly overbet.

rock its on bloodhorse too

ps love the debate its great!

You're fooling yourself. Garcia had him in a full drive the entire length of the stretch and he was staggering in the final 1/8th.