illinois derby gets an inflated beyer every year and then the winner takes up space in the churchill gate and somehow turns into a goat when it opens.

this horse isn't war emblem, he's cowtown cat.

Exactly.
DrugS posted this awhile ago, but I guess it needs to be reposted for some people here.


"The Ill Derby has a history of front end winners producing crazy fast figures.

* Last year, Cowtown Cat went wire-to-wire and was given just a 98 Beyer figure after running a time that suggested he ran significantly faster. BRIS didn't adjust there figure...and had him running faster than Holy Bull ever had on there numbers - he went on to finish 20th in the Derby while having the highest last out BRIS fig in the entire field.

* Two years ago, Sweetnorthersaint sat second less than a length off of pace setter Mr. Triester (who stayed on to finish 2nd) - he put him away, won by 9, got huge figures from all figure makers and was bet to Derby favortisim.

* Three years ago, Greeley's Galazy stalked the pace from up close and won with a 106 Beyer that might have been reduced a little if I recall. He never ran back to it.

* Four years ago, Pollards Vision went wire-to-wire and ran a 107 Beyer. He returned to run 17th beaten 40 lengths in the Derby."

The pace propelled him to victory, not some rail or speed bias on Illinois Derby day. There wasn't one.

I'm not sure why it's so easy for people to remember this about the Illinois Derby.

Anyway, I have read a few people saying that if anyone was Zito's position, they would have done exactly the same with War Pass that Zito did. I don't agree. I was of the belief that something was way wrong with War Pass after the Tampa race. I wouldn't have pressed on to the Wood after that. And even if for some reason I had, after the Wood, I was strong in my opinion that the Derby chase should have ended right there. Yet Zito was continuing on saying it was a day by day thing and that the Derby was still a consideration. I'm not saying Zito is wrong or that I'm right here because he knows the horse better than I do. But from all I was able to see, I think I would have taken a different approach.

Is it redboarding or 20/20 hindsight when you predict a horse will be done and he's done one race later than you predicted?

So you know more than Zito about his own horses?

There was nothing wrong with him in the TB Derby. He just didn't handle the track and he couldn't get the lead.

The horse got hurt in the last 1/16th in the Wood. He ran a fine race in the Wood, it was just too far for him.

To answer your question Benevolus, read the highlighted part.

All of this is meaningless in a different year. This year the 3yr olds are a bunch of slow horses.

The fact those Illinois Derby winners couldn't get an early lead. There was speed in those races. This year there might not be anyone to go with the horse.

I know one Illinois Derby winner that everyone looked past and he ran 1-2-3 along with Proud Citizen and Perfect Drift all way around the track.

I see your point but your use of the phrase "way wrong" made me think you were saying he had a broken ankle going into the Wood. Not sure there could be something way wrong with the horse that the trainer could have missed.

I like Zito though, so I am sure I am being a little picky. Cool Coal Man is my choice on derby day, so what do I know.

War Pass is a miler and to extend him past that was asking for trouble imo.

I don't understand this. He won twice as a 2 yo going longer than a mile and won the 2 yo championship as a result.

What would you have done with him? How long is the Delta Jackpot race?

I'll miss him. He was very fast 2 yo who was going to be challenged as they all are to go 10F. But he really didn't get the chance. He was less than 100% for the Tampa race and who knows how fit he was for the Wood.

Interesting to note that on ESPN2 just now they said Dutrow wanted War Pass in there so that he had something to run at. I have to agree with Dutrow. This hurts Big Brown and now they have to figure out to go to the lead or sit back off of somebody.

this is utter nonsense.

if he inherits the lead he'll be happy to slow it down. if no chancers like recapitulatecowtowncat want to run off, he'll stalk and wait for them to back up.

there is no one whose chances rise more than big brown's on this news.

Well Jerry Bailey, Dutrow, and most importantly me :) , disagree. 10f is a long way to run on the front. Horses don't always slow down when they hear 19 horses behind them. The 45 and change fractions he has set in his two dirt races don't cut it in a 10f race. That stretch gets mighty long when you have nothing to shoot at and the cavalry starts coming. That last 1/8th has taken out many a good horse that has more than 3 career races to his credit. Kent seems to be a better rider with something to shoot at too.

I really need to thank everyone for the entertainment in this thread and I can only apologize for not doing my part. The highlight? Gotta be the poster who hasn't been here in over five months but blessed us with fifteen ( yeah....I counted ) posts defending the merits of one of the most improbable horses in this year's watered down version of the Kentucky Derby....even going so far as to suggest that he will be a legitimate pace factor. I'll side with " God " in that he is no more likely than last year's last place finisher Cowtown Cat.

I'll miss War Pass and for the obvious reasons I am saddened by what happened. He would most certainly have had his work cut out for him in the Derby but, like him or not, this year's biggest race lost some luster with his defection. And, more than any Derby I can remember, this version needed all the help it could get.

that wasn't just a back massage. it was not just a banana in his pants. and there is a reason your ass is sore.

get a clue.

Dan Illman seems to agree with me. And I see he has a blog at the drf. They must view him as a superior handicapper to you because I can't seem to find yours. :)

"Recapturetheglory has good speed, is proven at nine furlongs, and is one of the few three-year-olds that have earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure. He’s an interesting sleeper."

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...dar/radar.html

When you've helped as many people on my website learn how to improve their horse play and make money as Andy Serling has, let me know.

(And before I hear how I play favorites and the other stuff, let me say that those with nothing to add on this website but attempts to antagonize are going to 'move on'.)

No

Beyer numbers are not "facts"

It is jerkoff statements like this that make good educated posters leave this joint. It takes the actions of one to ruin things for many. Luckily, alot of them have thick skin.

Dan Illman is bootleg as hell, couldn't handicap a 1 horse race. 2ndly, while you are right about Recapturetheglory's Beyer, I am guessing you know the WHOLE story about what is going on, like the fact that Louie Roussel has been real sick of years, and Recapturetheglory was 'thrown' into the Hawthorne race to take a chance, and took 100% advantage of a cooked rail job.

I still am laughing at the fact that you are listening to Dan Illman, and then using his opinion to back up yours.

Dan Illman has a f'n blog. 50% of america has a friggin blog