Impossible

Firmer ground will help Paco Boy, having Hughes opt for a riding title is also an add on bonus, Moore should give him a good trip, he's a very strong finisher, tactically if he can get 1st run on Goldikova he can certainly turn the tables on her. However the negative is he does seem to be getting alot of attention right now and she is a very formidable opponent.

Will someone please enlighten me as to why this is the general consensus? I don't see it.

The thing about beating her is that she's very handy. It seems like she's adaptable to any scenario and Peslier knows he can do pretty much anything with her and still have success. If you compare the internal fractions of the Foret to the Grand Criterium for 2YOs on the same card at the same distance (the race Utley exits) she was 1.3 seconds quicker to the 800m mark and 0.9 seconds faster at the finish. What that probably means is that Wooton Bassett would win the Juv Turf by open lengths, but that's neither here nor there.

A very strong pace going two turns could help Paco Boy's chances but she'd need to be very rank and falter late, something it looks like she's just not going to do.

I like Gio Ponti's chances more than most and don't necessarily think his credentials for this race should be judged solely based on the Shadwell.

I hadn't really thought about it. But, no....I will certainly use Sidney's Candy.

Very good point.

The track here could make all the difference, if the BC were being held in Europe I too would have reservations about his chances. You don't need me to tell you Paco Boy has an exceptional turn of foot, he doesn't need to wind up as say Workforce needs to, to get going. Tactically he has always been running at Goldikova, but over here if Moore can get him in a position of where Goldikova was in last year, it would make things interesting atleast. She was farther back than Peslier probably wanted, if that was PB she was running at, the result could have turned out different.

WHAT IS YOUR EVIDENCE THAT THE TRACK WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE? Clearly she likes firm turf. . . a lot.

It's worthless to argue about an even money shot this much, but I just don't see why everyone has come to the conclusion that the turf condition will move up Paco Boy so much without moving Goldikova equally (or more). Weren't they considering scratching her from the Foret because it was too soft?

I agree with this. It was really something to behold in the Foret when he let Regal Parade blow past her and didn't move a muscle.

I don't know if that was directed at me, but I'm certainly not doing that. I simply took issue with the idea that his Shadwell was 'very impressive'. I don't like him because I think he's slower than last year and has gotten fat beating terrible U.S. turf horses.

I mean't the configuration, not the surface. It's tighter and the stretch is shorter, tactically it is a whole different ballgame over here. Over there it is cover and long runs in the straight, you just can't compare the 2 tracks.

She clearly likes a more American configuration and probably has less of a European style than he does. I'm still not getting it, but whatever.

I agree and I think he has a very good shot to win in here. I'll be using him and Goldikova equally and maybe Paco Boy or Beethoven in pick 4's. If Sidney's Candy wins, he beats me because I think the unplanned layoff is a concern and he's just not going to run off against a full field like he did last time.

Like I said she is a formidable opponent, look at last year's mile, she was much the best IMO, however I don't think she can afford the same trip this year, I make no illusions about it she is the horse to beat, but if PB runs his race, I do think this year's task will be much harder. He's had some luckless runs ie. Prix Du Moulin, and has encountered races on less than his favorable going. I doubt he's going to be a secret, but you have to atleast consider him as one of the more logical ones if Goldikova falls.

I was just saying it in general, not specifically to you.

I think that Gio Ponti has certainly benefited from a time period when US based turf horses are awful, that goes without saying. However, I don't necessarily think his 2010 races have been any worse than 2009. The Dubai World Cup was underrated all things considered.

I'll give him the Manhattan off the bench and it's not like Winchester hasn't backed it up just a bit. He basically did his best Zenyatta imitation in the Man O War coming from well off a brutally slow pace. Ramon did not give him a good ride in the Arl Million at all and the paid the price.

I've also been of the opinion for quite some time that a mile is his best distance. If I'm right then I'll win, if I'm wrong then I think Goldikova goes three in a row. I'm not spending one cent on Sidney's Candy.

To me, that's the only way he has a shot. Because if he runs the races he ran at 10-11 furlongs on Saturday, he'll get stomped.

I believe The QT and Candy are the two most likely upsetters in here.

My impression of Gio is that he's a horse that can beat low quality fields, but when going up against genuinely good horses, he runs a few placings back.

Have you looked at Gio's PP's? What are you basing it on?

I think it's kind of funny that you question Gio Ponti's ability against genuinely good horses after you said you think The Usual QT and Sidney's Candy can win the race. I'd take any of the also rans in just the Shadwell (save Acting Zippy) against Kid Edward, Alphie's Bet, Victor's Cry, and Battle of Hastings any day of the week.

Let me amend what I said. Or at least how I said it.

I like QT's and SC's chances at their odds MUCH more than I like GP's chances at his low odds.

I also think they both have a nicer turn of foot than GP.

SC is a complete wild card in this race. He could win, or he could jump the rail, who knows.

I would take QT in a heads up against GP.

There probably were and he won't be anywhere but 4th for me. And that's a stretch.