Fortunately, at least for my personal interests, the weight frequently seems to become an anchor in the Belmont.

The Derby winner always gets way over rated coming out of that race. Orb is really no different.

I think the dice have been rolling awfully cruel over the course of this drought.

Imagine if Spectacular Bid or Easy Goer had been foaled in the Sea Hero crop with El Bakan taking a 3rd for Robert Perez in that years Preakness.

Real Quiet coming a bad nose bob short, Mine That Bird, of all horses, taking a serious swing at it, and Afleet Alex was merely a more patient ride away from beating the mighty Giacomo (50/1) and Closing Argument (70/1) ... he was a close 3rd.

Hardiness, health, lack of quality opposition within the crop, and lack of terrible ride are four big factors to pulling this sweep off.

Being able to beat Golden Soul home, this field on Saturday with Titletown Five in it, and win the Belmont doesn't feel like it's asking much at all...but the dice element hasn't been kind for triple crown hopefuls over this drought.

Don't forget Risen Star, who was a horrifically wide trip (and beaten only 1 1/2 lengths) in the Derby away from a Triple Crown.

While I'll be rooting for Orb, I'll certainly enjoy watching the frantic Churchill Downs reaction when a fresh IL Derby winner, fresh only because he was excluded from the KY Derby based on their rules, passes the tiring KY Derby winner in the stretch.

Nothing personal but I really don't have time for this. Feel better now?

And he is doing it out of the dreaded 1 hole.

The life of an Internet horse whisperer is a busy one?

I don't think the 1 hole is a big issue for Orb on Saturday. He has won from the 1 before and with all the speed in this field it should allow Rosario to put him in a good position behind the speed and to save ground.

The stuff about post position is wildly overblown. It really doesn't matter.

i guess i need to trademark that phrase.

i disagree about them always being way overrated. some have been felt to be fluke winners who couldn't follow up their derby victory. i think a lot of people think that odds of it happening are increasing because it's been so long-but that has nothing to do with it, just like flipping a head or a tail will be 50-50 no matter how many times heads came up in previous flips.

i think the winning a tc goal is overrated. some of our greatest horses didn't do it-and some of the tc winners aren't great. they did something that few have done but they aren't necessarily great as a result.
when one looks at horses like the bid, native dancer, etc, you look at some modern horses and go yikes, they surely can't do it.
last year with i'll have another, everyone pretty much awarded him the prize leading in to the belmont. his opponents looked weak, he looked a shoo-in. but i told my husband, something will stop him. didn't expect it to be an injury and retirement, but i just felt that the jinx or gremlin or what have you would prevent him winning.

Just saying those betting on the 1 horse in the Preakness are 1 fer last 50. If anyone can get it done it is Rosario though.

I know Orb has won on a fast track but who was the last to come out of a sloppy Derby and win the Preakness? Smarty?

If Smarty couldn't do it...no horse will ever again.

better horses than he failed. and i'd lump him under the 'ride' portion of what doug posted as factors.
i think it'll happen again, regardless of who tried and couldn't do it.

It's just a three race divisional series, five weeks apart, all level weights.

It will happen many more times in your life...even if you swear off that stuff you eat now and live off of fried food and beer.

Last year, I'll Have Another was an odds-on favorite on the morning line in the Belmont Stakes, he was beating Spectacular Bid, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, and even the indomitable Smarty Jones on video games ...

And all of a sudden, he's scratched, retired, on his way to Japan because his pedigree isn't much, and now he's in a desperate photo with Sea Hero for 18th place in a video game running of the last 20 Derby winners.

Big Brown only needed to show up to beat D' Tara. He just didn't show up, not sure if it was the unhinged shoe or whatever that caused his physical issue. Spectacular Bid's Belmont was a case of Murphey's Law.

Every year there will be a Derby winner. All that's asked is for them to repeat in two fresh races against very similar competition.

Mine That Bird ran a very good second to the eventual Horse of the Year in the Preakness. I think his was the only sloppy track since Smarty (until this year).

Must you torture me?

(stares sadly at bowl of veggie burgers with cheese and sautéed vegetables)

Super Saver won the Derby on a sloppy track.

Right; I'd forgotten. He came into the Preakness looking pretty tired, though, didn't he? I think I remember Donna Brothers commenting during the Preakness broadcast that he'd lost weight.

So two ran well, and one ran poorly. Cue the Meatloaf song.