CR, I have 2 reasons to not agree with that way of thinking. First, it is said with hindsight. Even if you are correct that he had the perfect trip, the fact is that he came close. From the information BEFOREHAND, it is enough to have been that close. You cannot take the factors going into a race and say I am not going to bet that 21-1 shot because he is going to lose by 1 length. A much better approach, IMO, is to say that the 21-1 shot isn't that much behind the favs. He almost certainly has more than a 5% chance to win the race, so I am going to bet him. (I didn't bet him, I'm speaking generally)

The 2nd problem with the way you are thinking (IMO!) is that you are thinking of these horses like machines. You are thinking that a horse running the same path is going to run the same time under all conditions. In this particular case, you are thinking that if you give Pegasus the same nice trip time after time, he will run it exactly the same way. You are not considering variables that we can never measure, that are enough to produce a 1-length difference more often than not. (I'm not talking about different times as a result of more experience; I'm talking about the inherent uncertainty of the information we are dealing with.)

A related concept is that it was entirely possible that Scat Daddy and NoBiz could have both run into just a little more trouble than they did. It wouldn't have taken much to make Pegasus the winner. So, even if you were correct in suggesting that Pegasus could not have run a better time, there are many scenarios by which Pegasus could have won that race.

--Dunbar

Well, Oracle, this race at Keeneland is yet another example of the same jockey getting a horse stuck down on the rail,and then he has to wait for horses to go by him before he can get out(Espinoza then makes him go wider than Great Hunter on the turn.)Regardless of whether CQ liked this track,I think you don't want a post near the rail for the B.C. Juvenile.Jock seems unable to avoid getting speed-lacking chalk locked in on the rail down the backstretch. A better ride,a different surface,and a little hotter pace,should give C.Q. a big shot.I wouldn't call him a closing sprinter (yet,) but I do think he would like a little more heat to chase than he got in this Keeneland race.Scat Daddy appears to be a very versatile and game horse.To me,J.V. got this horse too close(on the backstretch in the Hopeful)to a pace that was way too fast for 7f.He realized it,and tried to get away from it,but it seemed the damage was done.The only knock I have on Scat is that he hasn't gone 2 turns yet.I think he will do it just fine,but some 2 year olds seem to be struggling with making that 1st turn.This horse seems pretty adaptable though.I think he is the gamest of the bunch.C.Q. gets his favorite track,and (with a fairly good pace) will probably have a slight talent edge.So,you have versatility,and gameness versus a horse with talent,but no speed.If I was making a huge place bet,it would be on Scat.I wouldn't single either one in multirace betting.

Believe me, I've seen scenarios where four horses have fallen down and it allowed a $80 horse to win loose on the lead before, but who can predict that?...You wouldn't bet Pegasus Wind to win because you thought the better and faster horses than him (Scat Daddy and Nobiz Like Shobiz) were going to get in trouble and that he would have things his own way that easily ad that is why he would win, would you?

pillow and cunningham
 

PM this crap please...

bam the mod puts the smack down...tko..lol

I think the Daddy goes favored. Always seems the Champagne holds more weight than the Keeneland race. Some of the West coast colts who beat GH will take some action as well. My guess is Daddy at 5/2, CQ at 3-1. We'll see what happens. I'm still a CQ fan. There should be a Pinnacle match-up with those two snout-to-snout.

If I thought he was just 1-3 lengths worse than those other 2, then yes, I would bet him at 21-1. My point is that when a horse loses by less than a length, it doesn't take much of a change to make that horse the winner. I only need him (or horses like him) to win 6% of the time to show an extremely nice profit.

I'm sure you understand that capping isn't about picking the most likely winner of the race. If someone doesn't understand that any horse can win (and any horse can lose), then he/she has very little chance of being a successful capper.

--Dunbar

IMO, only 6% of the time will he get such an easy trip to capitalize on....he got that ideal, lucky, beneficial trip to give him the BEST chance to win and he still got beat by better horses who had way worse journeys than him....

Scat had to make a far wider run than NLS and Pegasus Wind, both......Pegasus Wind got away with an easy lead while hugging the rail and fractions of 24 and change and almost 48 seconds for his half mile, which is RIDICULOUSLY slow for good horses going around one turn. Yet, he still allowed horses with wider and less advantageous trips to run him over late....I'm not impressed when a horse is given a race and cannot capitalize to even run in the Exacta....

God couldn't tell Lukas not to run his horses where they don't belong...that is a common practice from that barn....its all about winning the biggest races at ANY cost....

Anyone know what the plans for Tiz Wonderful are?

You know, I've been wondering the same thing...

He actually just put up a very nice work today in 100.80 for 5 furlongs at Keeneland...

He posted a nice workout today at least!
Opps! You posted about it! LOL

Yeah, I saw that, and editted my post including that...:D

And you just editted your post...LOL Sightseek. That is funny. Great minds think alike. LOL!

Just to let everybody know, that barn thinks that NAPA CAT is their best baby....put him in your stable mail....he has been a little knicked-up but is back working well at KEE. He'll likely run back in a 1X at CD in the next month or so.....nice black colt and worth keeping an eye on....