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-   -   Hollywood Pik-6 carryover 11/30 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7337)

SCUDSBROTHER 12-01-2006 10:26 AM

If somebody costs you a shot at 40 or 50k(or even 10% of that,) then it is normal to want them punished in some physical way.Then,it is also normal for that desire to pass(hopefully sooner than later.)

oracle80 12-01-2006 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
If somebody costs you a shot at 40 or 50k(or even 10% of that,) then it is normal to want them punished in some physical way.Then,it is also normal for that desire to pass(hopefully sooner than later.)

I'm still fuming about that ride Gomez gave Sigfreto in January or February.

eurobounce 12-01-2006 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
You have to single somewhere, and I agree that anyone who bet her at 6-5 made a horrendous bet.
I had her pegged as a co fave with the 8 in my own mind.
I originally had 1,3,8 in the race but when they scratched the 3 I decided to single the race and go for more horses in the other leg.
I would not say that taking her at 6-5 in a win bet was real bright. Completely agree with that.

I know hindisght is 20/20 but there was no way that the 1 horse was the single in the pick yesterday. To me the single was Little Teaser. In fact, that was my single in my pick 4. Mullins in that spot is a very solid play. My general rule is to never single a race where the field is even and I can make a case for all the horses. In addition, I try not to single a horse who seems to always find trouble and that is what the 1 horse does.

oracle80 12-01-2006 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
I know hindisght is 20/20 but there was no way that the 1 horse was the single in the pick yesterday. To me the single was Little Teaser. In fact, that was my single in my pick 4. Mullins in that spot is a very solid play. My general rule is to never single a race where the field is even and I can make a case for all the horses. In addition, I try not to single a horse who seems to always find trouble and that is what the 1 horse does.

I could never have singled her with the 1's form. No way. That was a classic two horse race.

blackthroatedwind 12-01-2006 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
You have to single somewhere, and I agree that anyone who bet her at 6-5 made a horrendous bet.
I had her pegged as a co fave with the 8 in my own mind.
I originally had 1,3,8 in the race but when they scratched the 3 I decided to single the race and go for more horses in the other leg.
I would not say that taking her at 6-5 in a win bet was real bright. Completely agree with that.


If you agree that it was an evenly matched race, which you did in this thread, and also singled this horse at 6:5 then you made a horrendous play...it's really as simple as that.

You say " you have to single somewhere " as though one throws a dart at a six spot dart board and singles in whatever race the dart lands in. That is absurdly untrue...of course. If one singles anywhere it is in the race he feels his ( or her ) money is best spent on one horse in order to spread somewhere else. You had just used five horses in the previous race. You could have used three there and two in the race you singled and only increased the ticket by $144. The pick-6 is about making choices where to spend your money and if after a race that you singled you say " it was an evenly matched field " then you are either redboarding to justify some bad opinion or played the Pick-6 poorly. It is really pretty much an " either-or " situation.

What this really gets to is that these tickets you are playing are very poorly constructed and are far from maximizing your chances of winning for the money invested. You would do very well, and I'm not being condescending, to read Steve Crist's new book about betting strategies, specifically Pick-6s, as you need to learn about seperating horses in individual races into different categories and playing multiple tickets. In all honesty, it is possible you would have hit yesterday's play using that method.

eurobounce 12-01-2006 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
I could never have singled her with the 1's form. No way. That was a classic two horse race.

Are you saying the 7th was a 2 horse race or the 8th?

hoovesupsideyourhead 12-01-2006 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
To be honest, Hitting pik-6's isn't the greatest thing on my mind these days.
I'm helping make claims for one owner, and have a zillion guys who need horses. I'm on the phone all day long looking for them.
Market's toiugh right now.
Looks like I may have gotten a fellow Derby trailer a nice one at the right price.
I haven't even looked at the pik-6 yet today at Aqueduct other than a casual glance.
Its not high on my things to do list.

you would think after the wonder lady ann l horse eeked into grade one win you would have so many on the line...but in the end personality has much to do with succsess....

oracle80 12-01-2006 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
If you agree that it was an evenly matched race, which you did in this thread, and also singled this horse at 6:5 then you made a horrendous play...it's really as simple as that.

You say " you have to single somewhere " as though one throws a dart at a six spot dart board and singles in whatever race the dart lands in. That is absurdly untrue...of course. If one singles anywhere it is in the race he feels his ( or her ) money is best spent on one horse in order to spread somewhere else. You had just used five horses in the previous race. You could have used three there and two in the race you singled and only increased the ticket by $144. The pick-6 is about making choices where to spend your money and if after a race that you singled you say " it was an evenly matched field " then you are either redboarding to justify some bad opinion or played the Pick-6 poorly. It is really pretty much an " either-or " situation.

What this really gets to is that these tickets you are playing are very poorly constructed and are far from maximizing your chances of winning for the money invested. You would do very well, and I'm not being condescending, to read Steve Crist's new book about betting strategies, specifically Pick-6s, as you need to learn about seperating horses in individual races into different categories and playing multiple tickets. In all honesty, it is possible you would have hit yesterday's play using that method.


I know all about that construction method.
Used to play with KR and we tried that for a while and it just never worked.
We found that you ended up maybe having the smaller paying ones twice or three times, but always ended up missing out on the score.
I don't argue with the model we use. It limits losses on a large scale, and we've made many large hits never spending more than 800 bucks.

oracle80 12-01-2006 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
you would think after the wonder lady ann l horse eeked into grade one win you would have so many on the line...but in the end personality has much to do with succsess....

Oh I do have many on the line thanks!!!!

oracle80 12-01-2006 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
Are you saying the 7th was a 2 horse race or the 8th?

The 8th. The 1 looked as good or better than the 6 did preceeding the race, and now I think its obvious she just can't handle poly. She had no troubel yesterday, unless you consider running horrendously with no excuse trouble.

SCUDSBROTHER 12-01-2006 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
I'm still fuming about that ride Gomez gave Sigfreto in January or February.

In Frisco,Sigfreto is still blowing by horses with a mad late rush.People please note that both instances(yesterday's 7th,and when Sigfreto got poorly ridden,) were inside chalk.Too G D many times this happens.Consider before singling.Let there be something good come from the thread.Think 2x,3x,5 f'n x before singling inside chalk.

hoovesupsideyourhead 12-01-2006 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Oh I do have many on the line thanks!!!!

bill collecters people you owe..ect..i bet the lines are ringing off the hook..lol

oracle80 12-01-2006 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
In Frisco,Sigfreto is still blowing by horses with a mad late rush.People please note that both instances(yesterday's 7th,and when Sigfreto got poorly ridden,) were inside chalk.Too G D many times this happens.Consider before singling.Let there be something good come from the thread.Think 2x,3x,5 f'n x before singling inside chalk.

Thats a very good point, truly.

oracle80 12-01-2006 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
bill collecters people you owe..ect..i bet the lines are ringing off the hook..lol

Well I dunno. I do know that the national leading races won owner rings me daily, and that the national leading trainer had one bought from me that didn't pass the vet. Just making offers for people like him are an honor.
Don't worry about me, thanks for caring though!!!!

uscrules 12-01-2006 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
The 8th. The 1 looked as good or better than the 6 did preceeding the race, and now I think its obvious she just can't handle poly. She had no troubel yesterday, unless you consider running horrendously with no excuse trouble.

Yesterday you said the 8th was a "crapshoot". Today your saying it was a 2 horse race? Which is it? You cant have it both ways.

Quotes from yesterday:

8th is a crapshoot but if we can get by this leg I think we've got one hell of a shot to be alive into the last leg.
I dunno Stud. That last race is just so hard.

eurobounce 12-01-2006 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
The 8th. The 1 looked as good or better than the 6 did preceeding the race, and now I think its obvious she just can't handle poly. She had no troubel yesterday, unless you consider running horrendously with no excuse trouble.

I agree with that. For me, I would rather single a race where I think it is a two horse race vs singling a race where I think eveveryone in the field is capable of winning. That is just me. To me, I think the 1 horse in the 7th was a nice single, but it wasnt for me. In fact, I went all in the race in my pick 4.

I agree that the 1 just doesnt like Poly or she is off form. But Gomez and Mullins is hard not to single. In addition, I also love singling in the last leg.

SCUDSBROTHER 12-01-2006 12:12 PM

I don't mean to make fun of the situation,but I think yesterday calls out for a reality movie to be made about horsebettors.I picture the guy playing Oracle.He is still fuming 18 hours later (at Victor.)He is sitting in a chair and has to answer the damn phone(because whoever it is won't leave him alone...they won't just leave a message....they keep hanging up and calling him.)He must pick the phone up because he has told family members to use this technique "if they really need to talk to him." He picks the phone up to find out it is somebody he indeed loves,but not somebody he wants to listen to.He is working hard to control his temper,and doesn't want to be rude to this close famly member,but getting them gone would cure cancer.They keep rambling about how somebody he could care less about is getting married.Oracle keeps struggling to act like he cares. Then pan to the T.V. that is suddenly showing Victor speaking in his baby talk style.Victor is struggling for a word to describe something.The interviewer injects one,and then Victor chuckles while agreeing with the interviewer.Oracle is now red and sweating.Victor continues on with the interview.At this point a loop of specific lyrics from an Oasis song is added in"I DON'T BELIEVE THAT ANYBODY FEELS THE WAY I DO ABOUT YOU NOW"..............."I DON'T BELIEVE THAT ANYBODY FEELS THE WAY I DO ABOUT YOU NOW".....Suddenly,Oracle loses it,and screams into the phone "ALL RIGHT ALREADY...ALL RIGHT," and he chucks the phone at the T.V....The phone explodes into many pieces,but the T.V. is still showing Victor chuckle(because the phone didn't hit the glass...it hit the frame surrounding the glass.)...........Next scene

oracle80 12-01-2006 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
I don't mean to make fun of the situation,but I think yesterday calls out for a reality movie to be made about horsebettors.I picture the guy playing Oracle.He is still fuming 18 hours later (at Victor.)He is sitting in a chair and has to answer the damn phone(because whoever it is won't leave him alone...they won't just leave a message....they keep hanging up and calling him.)He must pick the phone up because he has told family members to use this technique "if they really need to talk to him." He picks the phone up to find out it is somebody he indeed loves,but not somebody he wants to listen to.He is working hard to control his temper,and doesn't want to be rude to this close famly member,but getting them gone would cure cancer.They keep rambling about how somebody he could care less about is getting married.Oracle keeps struggling to act like he cares. Then pan to the T.V. that is suddenly showing Victor speaking in his baby talk style.Victor is struggling for a word to describe something.The interviewer injects one,and then Victor chuckles while agreeing with the interviewer.Oracle is now red and sweating.Victor continues on with the interview.At this point a loop of specific lyrics from an Oasis song is added in"I DON'T BELIEVE THAT ANYBODY FEELS THE WAY I DO ABOUT YOU NOW"..............."I DON'T BELIEVE THAT ANYBODY FEELS THE WAY I DO ABOUT YOU NOW".....Suddenly,Oracle loses it,and screams into the phone "ALL RIGHT ALREADY...ALL RIGHT," and he chucks the phone at the T.V....The phone explodes into many pieces,but the T.V. is still showing Victor chuckle(because the phone didn't hit the glass...it hit the frame surrounding the glass.)...........Next scene


Scuds I'm always happy to hear from family and friends.
Phone never stops ringing though.
Ryan and I (The Bid) have hooked up as well working on deals(hes also an agent) and we talk about ten horses a day.
It can be rather comical.

Coach Pants 12-01-2006 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
I don't mean to make fun of the situation,but I think yesterday calls out for a reality movie to be made about horsebettors.I picture the guy playing Oracle.He is still fuming 18 hours later (at Victor.)He is sitting in a chair and has to answer the damn phone(because whoever it is won't leave him alone...they won't just leave a message....they keep hanging up and calling him.)He must pick the phone up because he has told family members to use this technique "if they really need to talk to him." He picks the phone up to find out it is somebody he indeed loves,but not somebody he wants to listen to.He is working hard to control his temper,and doesn't want to be rude to this close famly member,but getting them gone would cure cancer.They keep rambling about how somebody he could care less about is getting married.Oracle keeps struggling to act like he cares. Then pan to the T.V. that is suddenly showing Victor speaking in his baby talk style.Victor is struggling for a word to describe something.The interviewer injects one,and then Victor chuckles while agreeing with the interviewer.Oracle is now red and sweating.Victor continues on with the interview.At this point a loop of specific lyrics from an Oasis song is added in"I DON'T BELIEVE THAT ANYBODY FEELS THE WAY I DO ABOUT YOU NOW"..............."I DON'T BELIEVE THAT ANYBODY FEELS THE WAY I DO ABOUT YOU NOW".....Suddenly,Oracle loses it,and screams into the phone "ALL RIGHT ALREADY...ALL RIGHT," and he chucks the phone at the T.V....The phone explodes into many pieces,but the T.V. is still showing Victor chuckle(because the phone didn't hit the glass...it hit the frame surrounding the glass.)...........Next scene


Coach Pants 12-01-2006 12:25 PM

So basically what happened is you made the mistake of singling a horse Victor was on. I can't stand Victor but he gets good mounts and forces you into making decisions that can backfire. Afterall you're not handicapping the jockey, as most expert handicappers say. Big rolleyes on that one.

There are some jocks that could lose on Pegasus in a bottom level claimer. Then there are the jocks like Leparoux who force you into not betting where they're riding because when you bet a horse he's on the son of a bitch will run out of the money and when you bet against him he'll **** up all of your bets.

If only the technological advances were at the point where it's possible robot jockeys could ride the horses...


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