+1 :tro: One of the most assinine Fatman posts I have glanced at in awhile and that's saying something.

:tro:

[quote=CSC]
The thing is, Summer Bird ran a REAL NICE RACE (expecting to get bitched out by fatman for this) in the Haskell. I thought he ran as well there as he did in the Travers. Rachel was hands down spectacular that day, just off the track record on a wet track.. but Summer bird ran his eyeballs out in that race and ran a winning Haskel race, if she hadnt done what she did.

So I just dont see the huge improvement when I thought SB ran very well in the Haskell too. It would be one thing if he would have lost by 30 lengths and ran last, but he was a "real nice colt" in that race too.

Another behind the times dirt lover who can't come to grips with the NEW PARADIGM.

Kind of sucks that I can WIN, and win at a ridiculously HIGH RATE, playing POLY with NO FIGURES, doesn't it Phil? :rolleyes:

My ****in ROI at WO, is RIDICULOUS, bro.

Put down the figures, and join the FAIR RACING club.

[quote=Antitrust32]Okay let's use just say he is a different horse today than he was then and that he has developed into a better horse. If you didn't understand the jist of my comment, though I thought it was obvious, my regrets.

[quote=CSC]

Just ignore that post of mine and check out reply #163. I put my feelings into words better there.

[quote=Antitrust32]SB chased in the Haskell and beat a bunch of nothings and a distance challenged Munnings for place. I give SB his due but he just hasn't beaten a REAL horse.

To put things in proper perspective, look at the thread of best Beyers by 3 year olds this year:

You have Munnings with a bunch of 110s or 111s and you have Zensational with a single 111. In what ****in' UNIVERSE other than BEYER LAND or a biased DIRT TRACK does Munnings do anything but SNIFF Zensational's ass? Or that freak at WO that just won the other day running those insane splits? Where's his 'fast' Beyer?

The old paradigm leads to cluelessness.

[quote=the_fat_man]

You have to understand my perspective, I dont bet much at all. I like to follow dirt and turf racing, and I have yet to follow poly racing. I havent checked out the stats lately, but when poly was in its initial stages, there were full fields galore, which leads to better gambling opportunities, though you disagree with that I think.

So we have two completely different thought processes. You want to make money, and I follow this sport like I do the NFL, and only once and awhile to I make a bet.

[quote=Antitrust32]He just ran in the Belmont(his 5th career race), cut back from 1 1/2 after a breakthru win, never showed any tractibility at that point, was put on the pace to engage Munnings, ran on a track that will most will concede was more beneficial to RA's style than SB's and still hung on for second. Given the context of these things yes it was a good race, but to suggest he is 7 lengths worser to a horse at 1 1/8, a horse that had infinite amounts of exp over SB. Are these excuses no...but in the context in which this discussion has turned the comments of beating SB like a drum, the implication that he is somewhat inferior to her, they do not belong in the same league, this distortion has to be addressed. Did she beat him by 7 in the Haskell yes, it's in the charts why anyone is even addressing this is a waste of time, will she beat him by 7 again or had they met in the JCGC Sat, I say not a chance she would have.

Seriously you believe this? There was some kind of pace conspiracy??? I just thought they rode their slow horses the same way they always did. Honestly as bad as this years older horses were in the Woodward and Gold Cup, last years may very well have been worse. So if they go too slow he has an excuse and when they go fast he has an excuse? I guess we will agree to disagree that his uninspiring performances last fall were questionably inspiring.

[quote=the_fat_man]I already posted the context of the Haskell race too many times, look for a 3 year old that just started running on Mar 3rd of this year, he's already accomplished alot. A hell of alot more than many 3 yr olds that have been declared great or atleast very good by some, your argument may have some legitimacy next year though I doubt it, he's the real deal. But realistically who can you expect from a horse to beat after only 9 career races. He will prove this in time.

If you thought that you should probably stick to training.

Honestly, you think a horse that closes off a slow pace and still wins is going to earn the same figures he did when the pace is very fast?

If you and I had a 100 meter race, an we walked 90 meters and I gave you a 5 meter head start, I would probably only beat you by a meter. It doesn't mean I've gotten slower.

I never said anything about figures. Just watch the races again. He struggles to catch and put away very weak competition, which is something that he hadnt had trouble with before. In both the Woodward and Gold Cup he cant dispose of Wandering Boy till deep in the lane. In the Woodward they ran the last 1/8th in 14.
If you want to believe that struggling to beat Past the Point and Wandering Boy was because of some sort of pace scenario, that is fine. But when you say he struggled to run past them because the pace was in one case too slow and in one case too fast makes me wonder how it works both ways.

Do you read anything or just assume everything? How many times have I disparaged Beyer figures on here as useless and unimportant?

Slow horses, however, should not benefit from ANY surface, and the fact of the matter is SLOW horses win too many races on synthetics.

Quite frankly, I don't care what your ROI is at Woodbine, either.

Wanderin Boy ran a 109 Beyer without any real smoke and mirrors in his start prior to his two meetings with Curlin.

Past The Point ran a 106 in his start prior without any real smoke and mirrors.


Those may not be horses with big resumes - but assuming they run back to those type of sharp races ... it takes an extremely good horse to make wide sweeping turn moves and blow them away with ease.

Compared to a WILDLY overrated horse like Street Sense - and very over rated horses like Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun ... I'd consider Curlin to be only just plain overrated.

I make a motion to have another board. This Rachel Alexandra can do no wrong board is too full.

This is very disturbing. When RA beats a horse like Macho Again, it's a great achievment. When Summer Bird and Quality Road do it, a slow older horse is just a slow older horse and SB has just gotten lucky against some suspect fields. Hmmm. So, when Rachel beats Flashing by 20 lengths it's awe inspiring, even more so when Flashing wins the Test. But the beyer guys are noticeably silent when that Test victory earns a high 80's beyer. And since those guys like to crow about Zenyatta's low beyers and suspect competition, I can honestly say I'm confused about what a good horse is or what a bad horse is, what a fast horse is, or a slow horse is.

All I know is it's October and we've had some real nice performances this year. I would even venture to say it's been a really good year.

Can't we enjoy them all?

I would suggest perhaps making an effort to learn basic fundamental handicapping skills.


Trader Pete ... like everyone else with an IQ over 40 ... realized that Macho Again was the #1 horse to avoid type bet against coming out of Saratoga.

OK, so how do you explain Zenyatta beating that slug last out by a nose if the slow pace didn't matter?

I'm sorry you don't understand how it can work both ways. It is pretty obvious when you make pace figures for a living. In the Past the Point race, Curlin ran about 10 Beyer points faster to the pace call than he did any other route race in his life to maintain his usual stalking position. Of course he wasn't going to have his usual finishing kick.

Maybe the problem, then, PHil, is what I've been alluding to all along: that the METHODOLOGY is flawed. Since these aren't time trials, with horses running individually or restricted to lanes, maybe the 'fastest' notion in terms of a number is not the way to go. If so many SLOW horses are winning on synthetics, then, I know that if I were a trainer or owner, I'd get my stock over there and win a whole bunch of races with my fast dirt horses. That this isn't happening sort of works against the methodology, don't you think?

I mean, arguing that these horses are SLOW is like the learned Jesuits of Galileo's era arguing for an Aristotelian view of the world because the CHURCH told them to save that view at all cost. What exactly is the excuse for all the BEYERITES here continuing to argue that these horses are SLOW? Time for a paradigm shift when your theory leads to ridiculous results.

I wouldn't agree that the obvious hot pace in last year's Woodward really hurt Curlin's chances or led to him running a sub-par race. It only made him finish very slow .. though still faster than how all the others finished.

The 112 Beyer he got in that race was actually outright the 3rd best of his entire career.

Curlin's a naturally fast horse who won his debut wire-to-wire sprinting with a triple digit Beyer ... laying 5.5 lengths off of razor sharp alw horses rolling along up front should hinder them more so than him.

I don't think it's a case like a Point Given in the Ky Derby... because PG didn't have quite the raw speed of a Curlin.

In one extreme example, you're talking about a 3yo going 10fs in May while hung very wide on both turns chasing a scorching fast pace in a huge field very deep in talent.

In the Curlin Woodward example, you're talking about an older horse going 9fs chasing a very strong pace in a smaller field pretty much void of any other real Grade 1 talent.

I must have missed it.

I guess I'm not as brillant as you.

That Curlin was long gone by the Derby. If I recall correctly, you posted quite extensively on PA about how Asmussen had taken all the speed out of him with all those long, slow gallops.

:rolleyes:

Zenyatta is an out the back of the pack dead closer. Curlin wasnt.

While I can understand that he didnt have his usual closing kick, he barely had enough to outfinish the horse who set that wicked pace.

All I am saying is that Curlin was not nearly as great as his overzealous owner and fans seem to think and that his less than fantastic final race lowered his stature enough that he has already seemingly been passed by RA.

He didn't exactly train him the way Baffert would - that much is for sure.

Christ, he was only a length in front of AP Arrow after a half mile in that race. The whole field was going too fast. It's not like a case in this year's Woodward where you had one rider smart enough to position his horse WAY behind everyone else.

Curlin's North American wins.... and how his winning Beyer compares with other editions of the race this decade...


7f 3yo MSW at GP 102 Beyer (outright fastest 3yo MSW at GP going 7fs this decade)

Rebal Stakes at OP 99 Beyer (tied for 5th fastest of 10 highest Beyers this decade)

Arkansas Derby at OP 105 Beyer (5th fastest of 10 this decade)

Preakness Stakes - 111 Beyer (tied for 5th fastest of 10 this decade)

Jockey Club Gold - 114 Beyer (3 way tie for 4th fastest of 10 this decade)

Breeders Cup Classic - 119 Beyer (tied for 2nd fastest of 9 this decade)

Stephen Foster - 110 Beyer (tied for 6th fastest of 10 this decade)

Woodward - 112 Beyer (5th fastest of 10 this decade)

Jockey Club Gold Cup - 111 Beyer (tied for 8th fastest of 10 this decade)


The only two winning figures he's earned that aren't your middle of the road par type numbers for the class ... are his debut win and his blowout BC Classic win.

Not to take anything away from his dynamite race in the Classic .. but it did come over a very wet Monmouth race track that tends to produce exaggerated large margins of victory.

Ghostzapper ran a very conservative 128 Beyer on a wet Monmouth track - Rachel Alexandra's 116 over a wet Monmouth track is the fastest Haskell ever .. even including Holy Bull's and Skip Away's... and Phil seems to think her number could have been a lot faster. Curlin's 119 wasn't a conservative number imo.. but probably wasn't too high either.

Curlin was basically an excellent 3yo and a pretty good older horse who didn't develop and improve a whole lot from 3 to 4. He benifited from being the best 3yo of a solid enough but very overrated 3yo crop.

Anyone that thinks his race on rubber proved anything about the kind of horse he was knows nothing about betting this sport. I don't really care what "fans" think, they don't bet anyway.

Barely outfinish? He won by a length and a quarter, not a desperate nose.

Curlin, overrated and all, very likely would have killed those two Euro's and Tiago on dirt.

Not beaten them .... killed them.

I understand Jerry Brown is way over the top on how he thinks horses have gotten faster the last 10 years or whatever it is. But I think Beyer is going overboard the opposite way. What has happened to the average Beyer in top class races the last five years? I have to imagine it has shrunk.

It has a lot to do with the differences between claimers and stakes horses in my opinion. It has changed quite a bit with the proliferation of slots. Notice how the stakes Beyers have shrunk at the big tracks for stakes races, while at the slots tracks they always seem to come back too high for their big money races?

Think on that for a few days before posting these historical comparisons.

One side note, it makes what Rachel is doing more impressive in my mind.

i agree. fwiw.

Curlin would not have beaten Ravens Pass on the dirt or anything. Maybe earlier in his career but he was nothing special at the end of his 4yr old year. It was a long year that started in Dubai. Ravens Pass could run on anything. His pedigree was fine for dirt. He was a great horse.

How do you possibly know he could run on dirt?

Oh gosh, he was by Elusive Quality, doesn't that mean he could run on dirt?

I've learned lately in this place to not step on the toes of the clairvoyant. They're out in abundance.

NT

:tro: :tro:

:wf

The Breeder's Cup just proved he was over the top since his Dubai race. He was extended to beat Past the Point and extended to beat Wanderin Boy. Thats the view from this betting "fan".

The horse threw a 22 second 4th quarter in the Breeder's Cup and hit the wall at the 1/8 pole. all earmarks of a horse that has seen his best days behind him.

He was a real good horse, not an all time great.

Everyone wants to talk about his 4-year-old year, but how about Curlin's BC Classic performance and his gutsy win over Lawyer Ron at Belmont? Sure, Lawyer was not at his ideal track and was on the way down, but it was still a solid win over a good handicap horse. I thought his Classic win was most impressive visually... he strided-out powerfully against the very underrated Hard Spun. Add to it he wins the Preakness with little experience against Street Sense who was in career form with the better trip to boot.

Yeah, he wasn't Secretariat... but he was talented.

I'm impressed. That's quite literate of you!

In a way handicapping is alot like being a clairvoyant. You just have a Potpourri of them here.

The Euros wouldnt have raced if on dirt and Tiago was nothing special period. The only reason the Euros came over is the race was on synthetics. IMO:D