I agree with Andy, of course What I saw in this race is that I don't think the horse can rate comfortably. I doubt he'll make a habit of being fractious in the gate, but if Mott was trying to get him to rate, it didn't work. I'm not sure how far he even wants to go. I was guilty, I think, of being seduced by how he rated against the bad field of maidens he buried.

Also, Soldat was there - and so if it's not him involved, invariably there will be another quality speed that he faces. I think back to his debut when he broke badly from the rail and rushed up to lead for most of the rest of the race. Perhaps that says that he's really a speedball miler type?

Forget for a second about how ridiculously you are overrating his supposed first turn trouble.....what you seem to be saying is that if, once again, he had gotten another perfect trip, he probably would have won, if Soldat hadn't been in the race.

You do realize how ridiculous this is....right?

:zz:

Lets say this race took place four weeks after the Remsen...

Put him in post 1 - put Soldat outside. Stick a hopeless longshot who is going to be used like a rabbit and ultimately eased in between them.

Make To Honor And Serve the one who is sent leaving the gate - and make him the one who is floating Soldat out on a fast pace through the first turn.

What's the result going to be? Soldat is probably stopping to a walk. Of course he can't win in that situation.

In terms of a Kentucky Derby chance - I gave To Honor And Serve a very slight edge over some horse who just won a race at Golden Gate - and has never even run on dirt before.

He has a lot to prove ... I suppose it was realistic to think he could overcome his positioning into the first turn - which I think you're under-rating - and just go off and run a 110 Beyer at 9fs in his return?

I didn't say Soldat didn't have a better trip, and perhaps the race came up fast, though I am somewhat dubious as to how fast, and I still maintain his performance was poorer than some will say because of how dressed up he was going in. He failed the first time everything didn't go his way. That is a bad sign.

He could still win the Derby.....but that depends on Uncle Mo. I'm just not a big fan.

My opinion on this is that your Facebook avatar is much better than the Brett Favre one.

I would guess the figure to be somewhere in the 106-to-109 range. It was about 20 points faster than the alw race.

The pace was about 30 points faster than the 9f alw race pace.

I didn't mean to suggest that exactly, which is why I said in my post:
"I'm somewhat skeptical of trainers ability to control when a horse is "cranked.""

I just sometimes wonder if, when it comes to horses on the "derby trail" with the necessary graded stakes earnings in hand, trainers do try....whatever is they try....to get their horses to "peak" on Derby day. I do remain skeptical about how successful they would be at doing this, but it at least seems more probable to me with a horse in To Honor and Serve's position than is typically the case when people use the "it was just a prep race" excuse.

I suppose.

By the way - had To Honor And Serve won the race - Jerry Brown might be calling him the fastest 3yo ever... or at least fastest pre-Derby 3yo.

The horse who won the ALW that went 20 Beyer points slower ran a 1 last out. Soldat ran a Negative 1.50 last out - once you factor in the weight and ground loss on there scale - I think it's a pretty safe bet To Honor And Serve ran a new lifetime top today. Had he won today - I can't even imagine how strong the hype would be from those guys.

And that makes sense to you as a single variant situation?

I don't have a good answer, by the way, but I'm skeptical at face value.

I thought To Honor And Serve ran like junk today. There wasn't much about his race I could give him a pass on, sans the outside draw/wide early. But even then, he's supposed to finish better. He was done and out with about 3 1/2 furlongs to go.

On the other hand, he does have room to improve going forward, and yes, it was his first start of the year. That said, I was never really impressed with his Remsen, and will sit on the "exposed" opposed to "needed the race" side of the coin for now.

I think it does. If anyone thinks it doesn't I'd like to hear there take why.

Arch Traveler - 76
San Pablo - 79
R Heat Lightning - 98
Flashpoint - 102
Soldat - 96

Arch Traveler ran a 7 point new career worst - and went backwards 14 points off of his last race in victory?

Even Gourmet Dinner went backwards! Everything in the only two route races today all went backwards!

I'm with you that they don't look right.

I know there are only two races to work with - but for the life of me - I can't ever remember being that far in disagreement!

Sheckleford's 9f GP alw win got an 89 Beyer... and here's how the top 3 finishers from that race performed in the Fountain of Youth...

Winner: Sheckleford - 5th by 23.5 lengths

2nd Place: Casper's Touch - 7th by 35.5 lengths

3rd Place: El Grayling - pressed the pace and was eased through the stretch after hopelessly beaten.

I think THAS got exposed for the horse I suspected he was all along.

A slow speed horse that needs a soft pace to run his race.

I don't know what's worse - that they let PG 1985 make the Beyers today for the two 2-turn routes at Gulfstream .... or the person on Facebook saying that Soldat "upset" To Honor And Serve ... how does a 1.40-to-1 favorite "upset" a 1.70-to-1 second choice?

I think this is true. When horses used to have 3-4 prep races before the Derby, I think it was more often the case where they would be well below 100% for their first out. When they are only going to prep twice, there's much less room for error and I think they are wound tighter for the first out than they used to be. It used to be that trainers would not mind losing a race or two in preps if it helped them get their horse just where they wanted for the big one. Not so anymore. Because horses race so infrequently now and because so much emphasis is placed on their record, each loss is now magnified to a level that is pretty ridiculous. With that in mind, trainers are usually trying to win EVERY race now and have their horses tuned accordingly.

You see this all the time in College hoops when some unranked, or lesser ranked, team beats a highly ranked team, and the newspapers call it an " upset " even though the winner was favored.

from bloodhorse:


It will also be on to the Florida Derby for To Honor and Serve. "(Velazquez) liked his race," trainer Bill Mott said. "He said (To Honor and Serve) did everything he asked until he got to the quarter pole, and then he said he got a little flat. I can imagine he might have needed the race. If he got beat I thought he might carry (Velazquez) a little more into the stretch.
"It looks like he needed the race. John compared him to the horse he rode and won the Davona Dale (R Heat Lightning). The first time down here she was a little flat and she came back and ran big today.”

A typically useless jockey and trainer quote.

I think the R Heat Lightning comparison he makes was because she was 4 wide chasing a fast pace in her prior start. He wasn't on Devil May Care last year for her 3yo debut at FG - I think Castellano was - but that was the same type of thing. DMC chased a very fast pace four wide through the 1st turn - and when she couldn't go with inside horse on the far turn she hit the reset button and fired on the airbreaks... I think she was like 5th by 12 in that race.

Mine That Bird was 4th or 5th in the Sunland Derby when wide and chasing a very fast pace. Sure, his Derby was a fluke - but he just missed in the Preakness - and a lot of people thought he was best in the Belmont.

Archarcharch was hung wide against a fast pace in the Smarty Jones when he faded. There's hundreds of big form reversals I can think of that come from that type of races. A lot of times though - the big form reversal only happens if horses can comfortably relax early on next time out.

It's the exact opposite in slow paced races. You want to be a wide presser in those type of races...especially with inferior horses inside of you. You have complete and utter control of the race from there.

That's why I don't even bother watching a race until I feel comfortable that I can gauge the pace. The same wide pressing position that can be an absolute dream spot in a slow paced race - is a horrid spot in a fast paced race.

What's interesting about this years Fountain of Youth is that there are mixed signals on how fast the pace actually was - it was 30 points faster than the alw pace - but very oddly it graded out a lot slower than I expected on my par chart. And even the final time figure has question marks. It looks cut and dry in the 106-to-109 range to me.

And here I was wondering which fool in this world helped make Travelin Man 3/5 in the Hutcheson.

Maybe the next time I write that I don't like an odds-on favorite BEFORE the race and it loses, you'll manage to respond BEFORE the race.

Then again, you may well have been too busy singling that 3/5 every way you could imagine.

Yeah because the 3/5, outside of the juicer special, was impossible right?

Go bore the infamous horsey board, you indirect redboarding douchetip.

probably. i put that up because there had been posts saying the horse should drop off the trail; a ludicrous suggestion at this point. besides, i was told on here before that bill mott of course knows best, so he'll wait to see after another race what the horse can accomplish. but any horse with a bit of talent and ability will be kept on the trail.
it's a true dichotomy here-people complain when a horse doesn't run, then they complain when he does. people say 'we understand a horse can lose', and then when one does, he sucks. yeah, that's understanding...

i'm sure he was searching for giants causeway offspring to add to his stable mail, while capping the wood memorial.

Seriously, I admitted I overreacted to the race by saying that he should be pulled from the trail (but you ignored that and decided to start something this morning for no reason). Why my one comment is such a big deal is beyond me. THAS ran terribly, but if you don't think so, then go pick him for the Florida Derby......or go read Andy's comments since you presumably take him seriously. What does Mott have to do with this anyway? Did you see anyone criticizing his preparation of the horse? I didn't - and I've been posting all along that I had no problem with his race schedule for the colt. It's not on him that his horse ran badly. It's one thing to lose, as probably Mott expected, it's another to run an awful race, which is what THAS did. He didn't show anything at all.

It's actually, If you don't like America...change it!

What's more of an annual rite on DT?

Logo threads for big race days or Betsy insufferably questioning the connections of horses on road to the Derby?

Now that you mentioned it, no you're not!!

A NY based horse that people are in love with that turns into a Chief Money Burner?

Me whining about Derby preps with short fields?

yeah but c'mon 3/5....are you kidding me 3/5?????? twice the beyer, one sixth the price and half as good all at 3/5....plus that kid (RHT 1985) is the mush or kiss of death.....especially with faves. anyone that saw flashpoint run knows 6-1 was an absolute joke.....juice and all! redboarding ...i'd be more embarrased i bet a horse like travelin man at 3/5........anyone that singled him .....well......never mind......no, it was not out of the question.....oh yeah, until the mush loved him.....lol. i would rather hear about people winning than the....."hes got a 106 beyer and can't lose"....then again people like this are needed for some maiden breaker to be 3/5.......you are sticking up for the guy with such gems as QR by 20 in the whitney and Rachel by 16 in the Personsal ensign...a true student of the game.......nothing is worse than this, so folks.....redboard away.

If you can't second Mott who can you? Plus we all know Live Oak is desparate for cash, soup sales aren't what they used to be!!!!

Saarland 4ever

Too bad I never questioned the connections of THAS........and Crossbow is not on the road to the Derby, lol. You would know from insufferable.......as well as being gutless. If you're referring to Crossbow, I wasn't the first one to criticize his connections, but still you aim your arrows at me. Pathetic.

i'm not quite sure why you think my post was a specific attack on you. my point was a general one; these reactions occur fairly often, from a sizable segment of fans. if you wish to think it was pointed at you, and only you, that's your issue, not mine. i wasn't suggesting he was my pick for anything in future, my suggestion was that one race a career/season/ campaign does not make. we've all seen horses not lift a hoof one race, and then run lights out later. witness afleet alex in arkansas with an inexplicable bad run, and then almost winning the triple crown as one example. i have no idea as yet who my fla derby pick would be; i don't start making selections ahead of time for any race.
and what does mott have to do with it? i posted his comments after the race about his horse to show he has no intention of stopping. i thought some might be interested in his comments.

i've paused more than once to remember who those initials belong to...seriously, peope write a paragraph, but can't write a full horse name in that paragraph? but then, i can't stand seeing b4...but the word 'alot' still curls my toes more than anything. it's a lot people!! two words, look it up.

I thought you directed your post to me because I was the one who suggested (immediately after a race which was incredibly disappointing to me) that Mott pull THAS from the trail. If you weren't, I apologize. In any case, regardless of what I think of the horse, he's going to the Florida Derby. I would be surprised if he ran well because he should have run better than he did yesterday (if I recall, AA had a fever in that bad race he ran)........and now I also question how far he wants to go. He's speedy and doesn't seem all that willing to rate; he was closer to the pace than I hoped he'd be. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but that wasn't the kind of race I expected from the colt at all.

i think you're basing too much on one race, especially when the goal is a race in may. should he have run better? maybe, will he end up running poorly again? that's to be seen. but plenty of horses over the years have run up the track and then gone on to bigger and better things. birdstone, thunder gulch, charismatic who ran for a tag and won 2/3's of the triple crown. the list truly is endless.
of course, there's also a list of horses a mile long who showed promise only to fade away; he could just as easily be one of those. my only point is that it's too soon to write him off. these horses are obviously still learning and developing.

i will offer one suggestion to you tho-don't get hopeful mainly due to a horses pedigree. it's all well and good to be a fan of a horse line, but don't think bloodlines alone will be enough. plenty of good horseflesh that doesn't pan out. base your picks and hopes on ability; take any biases out of the equation. horses don't run faster because you have high hopes for them.

such a delicate flower. be gentle. a googly!