Overated / Underated... the anti-HOY Awards (so far...)
 

Okay I'm just curious..... who do you all think is the single most overated horse so far this year?

Underated?

The only rule is you may only give ONE name in each category.

Who wants to go first?

(..... and remember, no fighting in the sandbox kids!) :)

over? strong contender--hasn't beaten top shelf comp yet, only has excuses. yeah, he won the dwyer. WOOOOOW

under? barbaro. til after his derby win.

over rated;
Lawyer Ron, sorry I just never thought he was a top flight derby contender.

under rated;
Lady of Venice, filly looks like a turf monster to me.

Thats a pretty good duo of picks there IMO...nice...

Here I go (and I'll pick horses that WILL fall apart but haven't yet and horses that WILL be underappreciated):

Overrated: Lava Man (when he leaves the precious West Coast he is doomed)

Underrated: Napa Cat figured I'd throw in a 2yo who nobody is talking about right now but one that has CRAZY ability...won't be underrated if he wins the Bashford Manor though...

Nevermind on Napa Cat........he isn't even nominated to the Bashford Manor which means that Steve is either waiting for Saratoga or he got hurt....I'll find out...he has Chase City for the Bashford Manor who will be tough but Minefield will be the favorite and I think Run Alex Run will be a tough little horse to catch on the lead at a good price...Also, BErnie Flint has a maiden named Unbridled Express that will be a very live sleeper from off the pace if he chooses to run this one in the Bahford Manor instead of going into a maiden race...he is nominated at least...

Hate to say it, but when I read the title the first name that came to mind for overrated was Lawyer Ron, and it pisses me off to say that because I have been touting him since January. As for underrated, I think Bernardini is better than the credit he receives (most likely due to the Barbaro injury).

Yep, Bernardini is really underrated right now, but I think he'll quickly prove to get plenty of respect in the months to come....

Underated: Sun King, Brass Hat (only as good as your last loss)

Overrated: Borrego

I almost chose Bernardini for under-rated because I think his stock will continue to go up. Its just that he is already held in pretty high regard off the Preakness win so his upside is not quite as great. OTOH, who knows how good he becomes.

Lava Man is not a bad prediction for over-rated since he is so highly regarded now and may find winning outside of CA very hard. He is one that my head tells me will crash and burn when he travels, but if he should pull it off I'd be thrilled as a fan.

Overrated: Brother Derek...I don't care how bad his trips were or whatever he had the most ideal trips out in So Cal in all 3 of his preps. Just have never liked him.

Underrated: Better Talk Now...Don't know if he is really underrated but he is like 100 years old now and still is extremely competetive. I really hope the UN is run because I love watching the old guy run.

Overrated--Flower Alley. Yeah, he won the Salvatore Mile receiving a Funny Cide-like Beyer. They talk like he is in the top 2 male handicap horses in the east. I need to see a lot more.

Cause to Believe. He stinks.

Brass Hat. Chance to rise in the Foster. He stunk.

Bob and John. He stinks.

Underrated--Invasor. His two American races both top notch.

Lava Man. I don't care about only in Cal. Grade 1's on both dirt and turf. don't see that often. That speaks for itself.

Barbaro. Turf and dirt. See Lava Man.

Showing Up. Turf and dirt. See two above.

Steppenwolfer. He stinks and is slow, but he runs the exact same race exactly, every time out. There is something to be said for that. A good skill.

Gorella. Excellent horse who competes with the top boys.

Honey Ryder. Always runs well.

Discreet Cat. Hasn't run yet, but destroyed Invasor in Dubai. Counts for something.

Funny Cide. See Steppenwolfer comments. Just from the opposite end of the pack. And many thought he was done.

I have always thought Brother Derek was overrated...good choice...

I didn't follow rules. Sorry.

Overrated - 1st Samurai
Underrated - Showing Up

Overrated: Flower Alley and Brother Derek
Underrated: Bushfire- she's been the best 3YO filly since the Tampa Oaks yet people were still discrediting her after the KY Oaks, when she was arguably the best, battling a fast pace and still running third, only to get passed by two deep closers.

Overrated - Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron - it is a tie

Underrated - Jazil. Wins the Belmont and people forget about him.

overrated =artie shiller...top pick...2nd surf cat..if he cant close hes dead
3rd. battle won
underrated cool conductor..top pick 2nd siver train 3rd butterface...lol

Overrated: Mayan King (by me)

Underrated: Mayan King (by everyone else)

Overrated:

AP Warrior
Point Determined
Cause to Believe
Bob and John
Brother Derek outside of Cali
Lava Man outside of Cali

Underated-as of right now Lawyer Ron just because he had to have major surgery right after the Derby because he was injured. How quickly we forget. He still hasn't worked. This dude could run. I am still p i s s e d off at Holthus. He puts in one bad race which happens to be the toughest one in the world to win, has to have surgery after the race, and he is called overated. The horse had won a ton of stakes races before ever going into the Derby beating Steppenwolfer who finished third in the Derby every time.

Sharp Humor-The forgotten horse. IF he makes it back to the track, I believe he is going to make some noise.

Barbaro-He was going to be one of the best horses this world had ever seen yet few seem to acknowledge that fact.

Bernardini-he gets some respect, but not nearly as much as he deserves.

Seek the Gold is probably underrated as of right now. He put it all together in the Foster. He is one to watch.

Underrated - BRASS HAT. He's been underrated all his life. So he had a below par effort in the Stephen Foster; horses who run their hearts out in Dubai often don't come back immediately - horses who are up the track, like Invasor, tend to bounce back more readily. This was the only time aside when he got hurt that Brassy has finished worse than second on the main track.

Underated..... Pride!

Why anyone would assume this girl couldn't run with Hurricane Run and Policy Maker (and their respective rabbits) is beyond me. One of the best in the world, this mare..... 1st in the Prix Foy (beating Alkaased and Shirocco), 2nd in the Hong Kong Vase (ahead of Alexander Goldrun, Alkaased, Maraahel and Russian Pearl to name a few), 2nd in the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (again beating out Alkaased, Oratorio, Rakti and an endless list that reads like a Who's Who)..... a lovely girl who is just as good as Hurricane Run. Maybe now she'll get a little more respect.

Overated..... keeping in mind my question encompassed the entire year to date? Rockport Harbor. Through no fault of his own, perhaps.....

It didn't help matters being on a forum with a fan-turned-zealot who would track and report Rocky's every move, every breath, every bowel movement. Sweet enough posts, angry and long-winded posts, posts that made you want to run and find a knife and stab yourself repeatedly..... and they all, every one of them, ended with a GO ROCKY, GO! and a smiley face. Aaaarrrggghhh! The sanest among us had a Pavlovian reaction before long.

And so this particular poster who acted like he was waiting for the second coming, well.... when it got to the point where I was waiting for a light at an intersection and began hallucinating a flashing go Rocky go on the red, yellow and green lights? That was the moment my amusement turned to loathing. Had quite enough of the now-retired Mr. Harbor to last the rest of my days, thank you very much. Others may come and others may go, but he wins my award hands down.

Overrated- Surf Cat
I hope he heals up fine and starts whooping up on 4 horse fields again in the near future.

Underrated-Bordonaro
I respect all the great 3 year olds, however I can't believe the short memories of some about the first time LITF faced older.

Over- Sunriver

Under- Sweetnorthernsaint

Future Star- Bright One

Underrated: Carthage - 3 stakes, wins and after he beat Lost in the Fog everyone asked, "What is wrong with LITF" rather than be impressed with Carthage's performance

Overrated: Invasor - He still has not beaten a G1 horse, and I think Flower Alley will handle him at Saratoga.

Overrated... won't say any of the 3 yos... they've all accounted for themselves. Older ... Flower Alley and Henny H. I still need to see them beat a nice horse. Both looked great but...

Underrated... easy... Bushfire. At this point in a 3yo filly's year, you have to go way back to find another with three G1 wins at this point... back (as I recall) to Silverbulletday. Very rare stuff.

overrated...BERNARDINI, he's in everyone's "underrated" category, and if you really think he's underrated, let me know what kind of price he goes off at in his next race...

underrated...well I look at Watchmaker's list, and I'm never very impressed with it, but hey the handicap division this year isn't full of superstars...but there has been a big G1 race won by SEEK GOLD, and perhaps he was hepled by the pace breakdown in the Foster, but a win is a win, and he's not in the top 10, well MW's top 10
could surprise again!

I love how Watchmaker puts Henny Hughes 4 spots above Lost in the Fog....and the only reason he does not like LITF was because he was a 3 year old sprinter beating "no one".

I think both are great sprinters, but I can't see how HH is any different than Fog last year.


Overrated: Lawyer Ron
Silver Train
Bob and John
Borrego
Artie Schiller

Underrated: Gorella
Hystericalady
Lost in the Fog
Bernardini
Smokey Stover

Future Star: Untouched Talent (Filly that raced at Pleasanton)

Overrated: totally a personal opinion, but one huge race from Bandini this year does not a champion make. I like him and I hope he improves again, but so far...

Underrated: Miesque's Approval. Hell, he's 7 years old and has won a couple of big graded races this year -- and he only lost to English Channel in the Canadian Turf. He's like a fine cheese that improves with age...gotta like that.

I agree with Miesque's Approval...might be one of the best form reversals I've seen in a while along with Lava Man....wow!

As for Bandini?...were you thinking of Bernardini?..I think you were...

No, I was thinking of Bandini. Fired a bullet in his return and then didn't hit the board in his second, right? If I'm wrong about his record, then I'll think of another overrated one :)

He actually won two races since he came back. It was in his 3rd race that he didn't hit the board. Even though he won his 2nd race back, he didn't look like himself at all. There's definitely something wrong with him. I think he is pretty much through but you never know. I've seen Todd pull rabbits out of his hat in similar situations.

Nah dude, he ran twice at GP before the Met.

Either way, I agree with you. I couldn't believe Silver Train paid $6.60 and Bandini somehow went off as the co-favorite.

Yeah, I deleted that post before you posted when I realized I was totally wrong.

He won a minor stake on Florida Derby Day as the lone speed, beating that hopeless Hennig horse who couldn't keep up in the Pimlico Special in his next start. It may have been the worst winning performance of the meet.

His being the co-favorite in the Met was mind boggling. If he wasn't trained by pletcher he honestly would have been 10-1 or more.

Couldn't disagree more.. At 3.5 years old, Invasor is the likely the best older horse in training right now. The Suburban effort was quite something considering he was totally set up for a reaction from the big PIM Special effort. KMc will give him an appropriate break, he'll win the Woodward and JCGC and then, assuming he handles the quirky Churchill surface, demolish whoever shows up at 4th and Central in November. (I guess this is my 'bold prediction' that didn't make it to that thread last week...)

If you'd like to hear something REALLY funny, pull up the ATRAB archive from the Friday a week before KY Oaks for me asking Bill Mott if he cared to comment on Miesque's success under Marty Wolfson... Priceless. (As was my having to go up to Mott two days later on the Churchill backstretch and tell him I didn't mean to get him in a switch... He looked at me like something you scrape off your shoes.)...

I'll check it out, Steve, thanks!

So I'll stick with my picks. Forgot Bandini won two, but still...

So Invasor ran even better than it appears because Jerry somehow annointed a horse off a six week layoff a bounce or reaction candidate?

Now I've heard it all.


By the way, I like this horse as well, but I do look forward to him beating more than the distance challenged ( and far from special ) Wanderin Boy and the extraordinarily mediocre Wild Desert. I thought I read Kiaran was considering the P-Classic and JCGC.

Wow that IS a bold prediction for a horse that was so far behind Discreet Cat in Dubai that it seemed like he was part of a different race.
I definitely put him behind Flower Alley and Lava Man in the older horse category.

Lido Palace finished a distant third behind Express Tour in that same race just a few years ago. Lido Palace was a similar 3YO/4YO to Invasor and came to America and was exceptionally good. Express Tour, while he won the Jerome, was fair at best and not even in Lido Palace's league over here.

My guess? There's something funny, and untrustworthy, about the results in Dubai, especially when Godolphin horses are involved.

Invasor is a very good horse and is a true distance horse.

I'm glad you asked him that Steve
I don't think turf journalists properly scrutinize trainers
and I suppose it is because they don't have to talk to the press
as they do in an NFL, NBA, MLB, or White House situation

Overated Lost in the Fog

underated Brother Derik