Who will be burning money?
 

A look at the favorites and most of them look very vulnerable.....

F/M Sprint: Dream Rush hasn't had to deal with the pace pressure she'll get on Friday. The Prioress was once again arguably the weakest Grade 1 of the year in North America. She already has lost at 3-10 at GP.

Juvenile Turf: With the turf likely on the soft side, Prussian becomes a total unknown and the Euros have to move up. But even with them, one of them (Strike the Deal) is unproven past 6f and another Domestic Fund starts from the dreaded 12 hole.

Dirt Mile--I couldn't bet Discreet Cat with monopoly money. If the horse really was 100%, wouldn't they run in the Classic? This horse has had so much hype he's still overbet, even when he couldn't outfinish Talent Search last out.

Juvenile Fillies- This appears to be one of the strongest chalks; of the favorites, the second most likely to get a win.

Juvenile--War Pass looks like too many others in the past who ran big in the Champagne then came up empty in the Breeders Cup. Its hard to knock his last race but I see him regressing.

F/M TUrf---with the turf on the softer side, Nashobas Key becomes a question mark. Too many others have handled soft turf.

Sprint---Midnight Lute will be favored off the Sar race and probably deserves to be. His best is definitely good enough but he also could easily run a middle of the pack race. 3rd most likely favorite to win.

Mile--who will be favored? I'm guessing either After Market will be scratched or won't be bet heavily. Excellent Art may go off favored but from the 13 hole, why take the short price?

Distaff--I suspect the m/l fave, Indian Vale, will NOT be favored here. The betting figures to be so close from 1st to 5th choice that it doesn't matter who is favored although I believe Lear's Princess should be.

Turf---hard to go against Dylan Thomas here. Probably looking at a legit 4-5 shot.

Classic--Lawyer Ron or Street Sense? I think they'll both go off co-favored. Of the two, I prefer Street Sense.

Nice work here JJP. I'm in total agreeance here with Discreet Cat. Not only do I not envision him not hitting the board, I see him finishing in the bottom half of this field. At least that's how the race unfolds in my mind.

i must be the only person alive who thinks dylan thomas is a sucker bet.

No, i'm with you. Although he is the best horse in the race, and should just toy with these, the Arc stat is hard to overlook and now the turf as gone soft, i don't think he has any shot at all. In fact, i don't think he will even run. They have too much to lose with him. Why risk it when he has already proved himself to be a very, very good horse this year.

I don't think the fav in the Juvie fillies is a good bet, either. There is so much pace in the race. Indian Blessing looked out on her last legs in the last furlong last out, she is going further this time and with more pace pushing her harder. I think she is dreadful value. A closer should win this one. Izarra would be my guess.

if dylan performs 5 lengths below his best, he still should win.. Hes known not to like soft ground but the ground was still soft when he won the arc and seems to take his races well.. I wouldnt be putting the mortgage on him though..

oh and i think we may be saying what a great price DCat is when he hoses up this evening....

The ground was only just on the soft side of good for the Arc. Maybe even a bit quicker than that so the jocks were reporting.

It will be european soft come the off time of the turf on Saturday. 100% chance of rain most of Saturday afternoon. I'm 75% sure they won't even run him, he has far too much to lose.

Discreet Kitty is interesting. On his Cigar Mile form he will win this doing handstands, but at 6/4 you have to oppose him. I don't think he is a big price at all. If he wins, he wins but currently, you have to oppose him. Gottcha Gold is big value ew in my opinion.

do u think they wont run him?? im not sure really how bad the ground is, or how bad the ground can get.. if its soft as we call it, id say he'll run but any worse and you could be spot on. the field looks so bad that he should be 2nd at least no matter what ground they have..


The only thing that scares me about D Cat is his ridiculous workout time last week.. If hes back to his best, he can win this by double digits...

They have far to much to rsk with Dylan. Everyone still expects him to win. This is 99% likely to be his last run before he is reitred. Getting beaten in a weak renewal of the turf won't be something they are comtemplating. We have all seen that he is a good few lengths better on fast ground.

Last week, Monmouth were reporting a dry week and expected firm turf at the weekend. Did you see the state of the track yesterday? The dirt is sloppy and they were off the turf yesterday. More rain expected today (80% chance) and 100% chance of rain all afternoon on Saturday. Jeremy Noseda said the ground was "good to soft" yesterday. They were expecting it to be a little softer today.

Magnier is already getting worried about the stats of Arc winners, and it wouldn't take much for him to pull him out in my opinion.

Even if they only get 50% of the rain they are predicted to get, the turf will be european soft on Saturday.

You're right about Discreet Cat, if he's back to his best he could run the mile twice and win both times, but that is a big IF....... and i wouldn't be able to back him, just hoping he was back to his best. They said he seemed really well last time but in the back of my mind things didn't seem right, and i get the same feeling this time. Godolphin are keen to win the Classic, and if he was back to his very best why aren't they going for that, especially now Coolmore have a runner in it.

I have to agree with you on Discreet Cat, if he wins, good for him but he wont get any of my money. I also have a big question mark beside the horses coming out of the Champagne, yeah they won and ran 2nd but both of the favs, came out of the race with injuries, so did they beat nice horses or horses with problems? In the F&M Turf, Nasobas Key is the one I would love to see win, but soft turf is a major concern and really she hasnt been going up agianst world beaters, not that that is her fault, but it raises major red flags. In the Distaff, I am just amazed how little respect Octave is getting, she is just a mare that tries everytime and the fast pace should suit her as they come back to her and she grinds them down. Teamate is another one that wouldnt surprise me if she ran a nice race. In the Mile, Ex.Art has ahorrible post but he is heads above the others but, chalk,chalk, chalk, I like several in here. Jeremy is one that has had several nice works, Purim is my bomb that I will be playing also. In the Classic, Street Sense all the way! I think Curlin will be right there, but I think Lawyer Ron and Hard Spun will hook up and LR will show his usually dislike for rating and have nothing left for the finish. The only one no one is talking about is Any Given Sunday, and I really cant find any reason to knock his last 2 races. My 2 longshots in the Classic is Tiago and Awsome Gem.

For one, it was firm when they flew over and at that point there was no talk about it becoming soft.

For two, before the Arc they weren't really interested about coming to this race anyway. They even said if they won the Arc (which they did) they wouldn't be going to America with him. I don't think they will be too bothered if he doesn't run.

Three. They have a few other runners with half decent chances, it's not as if they have spent lots by just taking him over not to run.

Four. DT has shown he isn't the same horse or anywhere near when running on soft ground. With this likely to be his last run (if he does run) Coolmore will be gutted if he retires on a low note, which is more than likely on soft ground.

Five. The horse has much more to lose than to gain...... does he have anything to gain by winning this? Not really.

Six. The coolmore team are getting very concerned about the Arc winners stats for this race, the soft ground gives them a real excuse to take him out and forget about those dreadful stats. He had a fairly hard race there, and their concerns could be justified.

Seven. Before the Arc they were leaving it until late about whether to run him or not. If the ground was deemed too soft they would have pulled him out.


There are more than enough reasons for him not to run in the Turf. I Cons of running greatly outweigh the pros of running.

this is the main reason that I'm considering some type of small play against him. this is often when things go awry when plans are modified in the afterglow of a big win. "hey! lets go win that BC race in three weeks. DT will trounce that field". by rights he should clean their clocks tomorrow because he no doubt lays over the field, but there are many variables in play that could trip him up also.

Eight. Thanks for the insight.

Ten. Oh bother! Tally ho!! I forgot nine!

Eleven. He'll run.

If he runs i will be surprised. Aidan isn't the sort of trainer who will run his horses just for the sake of running them.

Tainted reasons? If those aren't very good reasons not to run, i don't know what are the good reasons.

If the ground is very soft, which there is every chance it could be, he will get stuffed. You clearly have no idea of how ground dependant this horse is.

The BC turf was never the plan with him, i was first surprised when they said they were actually going to run him. It was never the plan. As i said, before the Arc they said they doubted he was going, and they said if he was to win, America would be well and truly off the cards.

The Arc stats are misleading? 0-8, or is it 0-10 Arc winners? If Magnier is concerned, that is enough for me to be a little concerned to.

If he runs and gets stuffed tomorrow, it won't help his sire status. His Arc win was the best performance of his career. They would much prefer to retire him with that clear in the mind of everyone.

I will ask you again, what does he have to gain by running in this race? The answer you are looking for is nothing.

All the talk over here is that he would be a very doubtful starter if the rain does arrive on Saturday.

and you know that for a fact, do you?

I'm not saying he will definitley get scratched, but there is a big chance of it happening, and the more rain they get the more likely he will be scratched.

I really don't see what they will gain by running him.

What do you get a prize if he doesn't run? Or are you just batshit insane with the essays?

How old are you?

All i'm saying is that at the moment there is a real doubt about him actually running on Saturday. Why would they want to risk him when he has nothing to prove and on turf that he will hate?

They have worried about soft turf before, and what will be any different this time?

They weren't really bothered about this race before the Arc, they weren't really bothered about it after the Arc and then all of a sudden they were going to run him. Soft turf will change that.

It was being called european good to soft by the jocks and the trainers yesterday.

I just don't like your smug attitude. Period. If the BC is so unimportant then wtf are you doing posting on a board primarily for American racing other than to troll?

Your insight is that of a fan yet you're acting like an insider. You aren't. You don't know what they're going to do. I was mocking you.

the guy simply thinks there is a chance he won't run, and gave his reasons for it. why is it necessary for you to imply he is nuts? why does every poster have to pass your sanity test or else get badgered to no end? its so tiresome.

Re: the stat on Arc winners in the Turf, I thought the sample size was really small; I thought it was 4; I could be wrong on that but I thought I heard that the other day. And Trempolino ran a great race; he lost a photo to a great American grass horse (Theatrical). Secondly, there haven't been too many soft courses; the 1988 running w/Great Communicator was on a bog; I think the Arlington and Lone Star BC races were on less than firm but not too many "softs" or "yielding".

When have I said the BC was unimportant??

I have said that the Coolmore team weren't interested in sending DT to the Breeder's Cup, and that is true. Before the Arc when asked if DT would go to America the answer was no. Then it changed to if he won he wouldn't travel. It shows that coming here was a very last minute decision. Even if he didn't win there was only an outside chance he's come here.

No, i'm not an insider, but i do know that there is doubt over him running at this point in time. Aidan O'brien has publicly said that the horse doesn't like soft ground and they will try and avoid it whenever possible.

The ground will be on the soft side on Saturday.

No, i don't know what they are going to do, i was told by a friend who works for coolmore in the States that there is a doubt if the rain comes, whether she is 'in the know' i'm not sure, but those words had come from Dermot Ryan, and that has been backed up on our racing channel today.

I'm not saying he won't run, but there is a doubt over him doing so.

Thank you, Arljim.

So you're gullible when it concerns horse racing news. My mistake. I apologize.

Well, i will believe close friends who have a connection with the horses rather than believe what 'joe blogs' says. If that makes me gullible then so be it.

Aidan O'Brien has said of the horses dislike of soft ground and will try and avoid it whenever they can. What Makes Monmouth's soft turf different to anywhere else?

It wasn't me who ever said the BC was unimportant, but the Coolmore team did imply that it wasn't so important with regards to this horse.

I hope he does run because i'd love to see him on the track once last time, all i have said is that there is a big chance of him not running, and i'm not in the minority over here by saying that. Many 'fans' are saying the same.

Hey I apologized. Why do you insist on baiting me into commenting again with this?

Steve...what do you want me to do? I can't control myself when stuff like this happens. This board is out of control with name dropping and insider info. It's borderline insanity what's going on. Any jagoff with an internet connection can register and claim they have good info because they know some guy behind the guy who combs a horsies hair. How can I rebut this nonsense without being nasty about it?

You could at least act grown up about it. You're about 60, right? Yet you're acting like a 12 year old.

I love the fact you said "he'll run" yet gave no reasons why you are so sure. I'm under the impression that they are having doubts about running him and gave reasons.

I dont really know if the point about this race being the plan for Dylan is as relevent as it might be for other horses. Sure, the Arc was barely even the plan for Dylan Thomas. All season, they basically ran him whenever he was fit and ready to go - they havent really stuck to a plan this year with him. I think it would have to be very very soft for them to scratch and even if it is soft, i think he'll win.

"Your insight is that of a fan yet you're acting like an insider. You aren't. You don't know what they're going to do. I was mocking you."

The Arc was the plan from early summer. King George and the Arc. The only concern for both races was the prosect of soft ground.

I just found it interesting that they never nominated this race, and specifically said that if he won the Arc, that would be it.

You say it will need to be very, very soft. There is every chance it could be judging by the forecast. If he does run and gets stuffed they will be gutted to go out on a low note, that certainly wouldn't be the plan.

about the turf being soft
 

I don't know how much rain they are getting
I have read that the new turf drains better than
well really good.
The sharp turns may be the greater concern
problem is.. like brockguy said, 5 lengths slower and DT still wins

This shows Aidan O'Brien's current concern.

From Racing Post.......

Ground worry for Dylan Thomas with heavy rain predicted

by Neil Morrice



AIDAN O'BRIEN expressed his concern on Friday about the very real prospect of testing ground for Dylan Thomas in Saturday evening's Breeders' Cup Turf at Monmouth Park.

Although the heavy rain of Thursday abated overnight, the local weather forecasters have predicted what could amount to a deluge on Friday evening and that would spell bad news for the drifting Turf favourite.

Dylan Thomas was widely quoted as an even-money chance by theBritish bookmakers today but anyone wanting to back the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner will surely do better by waiting as conditions will not go back in his favour.

The colt was partnered by work rider Pat Lillis for his first sighting of the Monmouth Park turf course as O'Brien accompanied his star on the back of a pony.

After taking his horses back to the quarantine barn the trainer was in contemplatory mood when talking about Dylan Thomas, who is on the cusp of clinching the Horse Of The Year accolade.

O'Brien pondered: "Dylan has such a long, low stride that soft ground is a disadvantage for him. He overcame it in the Arc but everyone knows he's better on concrete. The ground out there is better than Longchamp at the moment and much depends on what happens tonight."

If Dylan Thomas is to be blown off his perch, then Brian Meehan's Red Rocks looks the one most likely to do it.

The 2006 Turf hero cannot beat Dylan Thomas on the evidence of the formbook, but while the latter has endured quite a long and hard season, Red Rocks goes to post as fresh as paint.

Meehan ponied alongside his charge as they were one of the first out on the main track and afterwards the Manton trainer said: "He's on very good terms with himself.He's nice and relaxed and has done everything right.

"He just jogged a lap, then he cantered. He'll do the same tomorrow."

It will be fascinating to see what tactics Meehan opts for with Frankie Dettori's mount and there is a suspicion Red Rocks will be better-suited by the tight turning course than the massive Dylan Thomas.

Meehan, whose charge will run on Lasix and Bute, added: "Last year it took him a bit of time to get into the swing of it. Tomorrow I think there will be pace from the gate and that Dylan Thomas will be aggressive.

"My horse's two or three best runs have been from off the pace, so why change?"

****************

It all boils down to how much rain they get tonight and tomorrow, if they get what they are expecting it really won't surprise me to see him scratched.

The horse has more to lose than to gain and the coolmore gang will realise this.

Can i just ask......

English Channel and Better Talk Now, i know they are two of your best turf horses at this sort of trip and they seem to hold their form very well, BUT.... how good actually are they? I only get to see these horses once or twice a year and i can't really get a hold of their form.

I know English Channel didn't finish too far in front of Stream Of Gold on a recent start (was that his last start?) and Stream Of Gold was only really a handicapper over here.

What about Better Talk Now? I know less about him other than he finished second in this last year, so he must be half decent.

If they do run DT will he be able to win on the bridle? My worry is that he won't find those extra gears he has in this soft ground that is likely. I still don't think they are keen to run him, but it's weather they think his class can see him through, but i'm just not sure.

Stream of Gold also just ran fourth behind Cloudy's Knight, Quijano, and Ask at Woodbine last Sunday.

How would you rate Quijano and Ask? It might go a long way in determining what kind of animal Stream of Gold is/has become since coming here, and that might help you get a feel for English Channel, etc.

Also, if you watch the race where English Channel "didn't finish too far in front of" Stream of Gold, you'll see that there's a huge reason for it. If you haven't actually seen that race, you absolutely need to before using Stream of Gold's performance vis a vis English Channel in that race as any sort of measuring stick.

EC's barely beating him could (and should) have been an open lengths romp.

the fact that EngChan is 2nd fav after a less than stellar season just shows how poor this race is.. after dylan, id be looking at someone other than EC, BTN or Red Rocks to finish 2nd. Alot of the guys here like Shamdinan.

Quijano and Ask are two nice horses but they would have plenty to find with Dylan Thomas when DT is at his best.

I did see that race where he squeezed through an almost impossible gap and won well. I must admit i forgot about that until you just mentioned it. It's just the fact that i would hate to think how moderate Stream Of Gold would look against Dylan Thomas.

I'm just trying to judge is Dylan can win this when only being half as good as he can be. Soft ground does take a fair amount from him, especially his turn of foot.

I'm not pulling the "inside information" routine here -- just saying that a racing blogger I respect said that Shamdinan was the most visually unimpressive horse he saw all day today at Monmouth. He said his coat looked poor and that he just didn't look like he was ready to throw in a good performance tomorrow.

I like Shamdinan a lot on paper, and won't necessarily toss him because someone said he didn't look great, but it made me take pause.

He does NOT like soft turf. The drier it is, the better he'll do.

Shamdinan? his best race in Europe and his best race in the States were both on softish (well good ground in the states!) ground..