12/5: Hollywood C/O Contest Thread
 

Wednesday carry of $175,000 in the Hood which will swell to $1.2MM+...

Contest! Let's do it! $800 the budget...

And maybe this is the play to put together a DT syndicate...?? Root, Phil, Bigs, Pmac, Declan, Elvis, etc... ???


DRF GRADED ENTRIES

THIRD RACE Probable Post 1:30 PST

1 Mile. Turf. 3-Year-Olds and Up. California-bred. Maiden Special Weight. Purse: $44,000

6 Brian the Bold Gomez G K 121 3-1
2 Jupiter's Stone Solis A O 121 7-2
10 Apoplectic Baze T 121 4-1
5 Dee's Fling Court J K 124 6-1
8 Complexity Potts C L 121 8-1
4 Northern Diplomat Castanon A L 124 10-1
9 Free and Cool Pedroza M A 121 10-1
7 Lost Paradise Talamo J 121 15-1
3 Grizhead Red Blanc B 121 20-1
1 Shantivan Quinonez A 121 30-1
11 Wild Places Baze M C 121 50-1
12 Kickin Caper Berrio O A 121 50-1

Blinkers On: Dee's Fling



FOURTH RACE Probable Post 2:01 PST

5 1/2 Furlongs. All Weather. 3-Year-Olds and Up. Claiming ($10,000 to $9,000). Purse: $12,000

12 Call Or Raise Nakatani C S 120 7-2
8 Dark Past Pedroza M A 122 4-1
9 Hemet Espinoza V 120 9-2
1 My Master Baze T 119 5-1
2 Somthintomakimrun Baze M C 118 8-1
5 Smoke N Wagers Arias S 120 10-1
7 Alpine Sport Quinonez A 120 12-1
10 Celtic Fable Potts C L 120 12-1
3 Six Again Jimenez A 120 15-1
11 Sumatra's Hope Court J K 120 20-1
4 Shore Patrol Rosario J 120 30-1
6 Swiss Swiffer Enriquez I D 118 30-1
13 Generalist Rosario J 120
14 Proud Hope Pedroza M A 122
15 Cristofi Valdivia J Jr 119

Blinkers On: Alpine Sport



FIFTH RACE Probable Post 2:32 PST

1 1/16 Miles. All Weather. 2-Year-Olds. Fillies. Maiden Special Weight. Purse: $44,000

5 Life At Ten Gomez G K 120 3-1
6 Skylighter Leparoux J R 120 7-2
1 Tates Queen Baze T 120 4-1
7 Shy Baby Valdivia J Jr 120 9-2
4 Theycallmeladyluck Espinoza V 120 5-1
8 Spinning Yarns Rosario J 120 8-1
2 Iaintnobunnyrabbit Quinonez A 120 10-1
3 Miss Johann Talamo J 120 20-1

Blinkers On: Tates Queen, Spinning Yarns



SIXTH RACE Probable Post 3:04 PST

5 1/2 Furlongs. All Weather. 3-Year-Olds and Up. Claiming ($25,000 to $22,500). Purse: $24,000

2 Ghosttrapper Talamo J 124 7-2
3 Gray Black N White Pedroza M A 120 4-1
11 Monarcho Polo Espinoza V 120 9-2
5 Jitterbug Ball Court J K 124 6-1
6 Count Orange Baze T 122 6-1
4 Cousins Lew Potts C L 120 8-1
10 Smart Hit Enriquez I D 122 12-1
12 Lord Albion Rosario J 120 12-1
9 Colonel Courtney Smith M E 123 20-1
1 Wilburs Mr. Ed Gryder A T 120 30-1
8 Evanston Flores D R 120 30-1
7 Stormont Nakatani C S 120 50-1



SEVENTH RACE Probable Post 3:35 PST

1 1/2 Miles. Turf. 3-Year-Olds and Up. Fillies and Mares. Hermosa Beach H.. Purse: $65,000

5 Wingspan Gomez G K 115 7-2
1 Rockella Baze M C 114 4-1
4 Grat Valdivia J Jr 115 4-1
6 Sohgol Talamo J 118 9-2
7 Higher Love Gryder A T 113 5-1
3 Forest Melody Baze T 110 6-1
2 Steelin' Arias S 111 8-1



EIGHTH RACE Probable Post 4:05 PST

6 Furlongs. All Weather. 3-Year-Olds and Up. California-bred. Maiden Claiming ($40,000 to $32,000). Purse: $20,000

10 Partywithlarryz Talamo J 122 3-1
3 Familiar Stranger Baze T 122 7-2
4 High Investment Rosario J 122 4-1
13 Alfred Kent Blanc B 122 9-2
11 Virtuous Carson Arias S 122 8-1
9 Pluginthejug Court J K 122 10-1
14 Liz's Pirate Gryder A T 122 12-1
12 Brother Albert Jimenez A 122 20-1
2 Umber Leparoux J R 122 30-1
1 Heavens Snow Chief Enriquez I D 122 50-1
5 Joaquin Murrietta Quinonez A 122 50-1
6 Media Maker Smith M E 122 50-1
7 Putyourarmaroundme Baze M C 124 50-1
8 Cachito Master Scott J M 122 50-1
15 Obedience Nakatani C S 122
16 Power Blend Gryder A T 122

Blinkers On: Umber, Virtuous Carson, Obedience

Hey Steve,
If you set up a syndicate.. Im in. Good Luck KP

I could be up for a piece of the syndicated DT ticket and we have a few days to work out logistics.

BTW, Steve do you ever sleep?

I'm definite for the contest.

I would also love to take a whirl with a syndicate play at some point.

For a Cali play, I would definitely want the strong West Coast players to have the majority of say in gradings.

I would certainly be willing to pitch in as much as I can on the ticket structure side if that would be helpful.

I think the main starting point for a syndicate play would have to be (A,B,C,X) gradings by a number top guys with a notations of A+ for top selections (singles on a $100 pk6 play) and C+ for "top covers". From there I am not sure of the best way to hammer out the final tickets.

I would assume some sort of combined grading followed by additional input, discussion and draft tix.

I'd be interested in doing a syndicate as well.
In the past, how have they worked through the board?
Would it be $50 per share or ???

Unfortunately, I will not have the time over the next couple days to devote to handicapping the card properly.

A syndicate would be tough (I think we addressed this a few months ago, but I haven't looked for the thread). There are a lot of strong willed/minded handicappers here that may cause difficulty in coming to any sort of consensus. Someone would have to have the final say (Steve?) or I don't know if it would ever get done to anybody's satisfaction.

I hate to be a wet blanket on the deal, but I personally would not be terribly excited to get involved with one. I'd rather lose my money at the hands of my own questionable decision making instead of second guessing others.

*Edit* Here's the thread....http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...ight=syndicate

Great card for a Wednesday.Brian d Bold appears to be a hangin' rat.

I see my status as syndicate handicapper is in the the shitter. One cold streak where I don't hit the board and I get NO RESPECT!!! :)

Bigs is right though, for it to happen successfully, you would need to sell shares and have three assigned people (maybe these people are the ones that have the most risk, say 10% each and the other 70% is 'shared' out) and those three people put together a ticket, and the other 70% are silent.

Its ok Tom...you are now in possess knowledge of "the angle"...don't let them sweat you and your cold streak.:cool:

It is the first and last angle you will ever give me, but I do thank you for it

Keep that sh*t attitude up and your d*mn right it will be the last one I ever give you.:D

tom nothin lasts forever cold streaks or hot ones - soon you will breakout!

Contest sounds fun, as always.

A pick six syndicate could be worth a shot. Would this be open to anyone, even silent partners?

Need specifics.

I'm down with the contest for sure; the syndicate?.... meh. I would have to echo Big's thoughts.... Fields are huge as usual...probably looking at the 5-10K range to be realistic

Plus, we've got an OPENING DAY coming up here to save our bank roll for :D :)

:cool:

Have to admit, I am very intrigued by all this Tampa Bay talk..

Who is going to give the Tampa 101 course? Hope you guys throw us a few bones...

The 'Terror of Tampa'...! The 'Baron of Balmoral'...! The 'Mayor of Maywood'...!

GPK!

Dean of the Ditch!!

sported "the jacket" to the OTB the other night Steve

LOL...I love that ditch man...

More like the Red Neck of Roanoke
:D

His Highness of Harness???

Slammed at work....no time to cap. Good Luck to all!

Hopefully not for much longer...trying to get the hell outta this place.


oh yeah...gfy

Roanoke, VA? Yeah, I spent a year there one weekend. Not a whole lot goin' on..

Its f*cking depressing around these parts...especially this time of the year. I can't get out of here soon enough.

Is the Cornedbeef still open? Had a couple of nights there a few years back that I vaguely remember.

Yeah...still up and running. Cornedbeef and Cornerstone Bar are the only 2 decent places downtown to hang out at. Then again, if you blink, you can miss the whole downtown alltogether...

Back to the task at hand, I will do a write up today regarding the P6.

Just when I thought I was out, I GET SUCKED BACK IN!!

Yea, I will only to take a stab in the contest as well. A caveman ticket at that. I have no time, and after this past weekend, I have little scratchola to my name. Not to mention the weeks to come, Oye oye oye....

Contest Entry
 

Tried to get through HOL last night so maybe I could peak at AQU tonight...

Decided to hang my hat on Wingspan. I will live or die with her and take the extra coverage elsewhere.

Main Ticket
R3 - 1,6,7,10
R4 - 2,8,12
R5 - 1,5
R6 - 2,4,6,10
R7 - 5
R8 - 1,3,7
$576

Cover #1
R3 - 5
R4 - 2,8,12
R5 - 5
R6 - 2,6,10
R7 - 5
R8 - 1,3,7
$54

Cover #2
R3 - 6,10
R4 - 1,3,9,10
R5 - 5
R6 - 2,6,10
R7 - 5
R8 - 3,7
$96

Cover #3
R3 - 6,10
R4 - 2,8,12
R5 - 5
R6 - 1,5,12
R7 - 5
R8 - 3,7
$72

Grand Total - $798

Good Luck!

P6 Analysis
 

Race 3 - MSW Cal-Breds - 8f Turf

An interesting start to the Pick Six as the race has a couple obvious horses, 1 horse that will get played that isn't that good, and 1 that could surprise. #5 Dee's Fling is very interesting. After being off for over 18 months Robbins dropped him into the open maiden claiming ranks, which can be seen as a protected race that he could run well in, he now comes back to statebreds and jumps him up in class, two good recent works and throws the blinks on. Robbins is 10% better 2nd off the layoff. #7 Lost Paradise's last race is better then it shows, it was a 5 horse field with a crazy front horse that drifted out and left the rail wide open for the winner, while Lost Paradise was being confidently ridden 4w. The 2nd that Talamo saw Tizmet get through, he touched him and he took off only to get tired from being wide the whole time. Is bred to love the lawn with Manila being his damnsire and has the tactical speed to get a great lawn trip. #10 Apoplectic is by Unusual Heat, who moves his horses up nearly 5 TG points when they hit the lawn. 2 sprints and now stretching out and while the post is a concern, I like that Tyler is staying aboard, and that he hits at 33% with Zucker. #6 Brian the Bold is going to take money and honestly I don't think he is good enough to win. While his last race was down the hill, he got a perfect pace scenario to blow but couldn't (44-half, 107-6f). A toss for me

Race 4 - Claiming 10k 3+ - 5.5 furlongs
Most of these cheap claimers in California are a pain in the ass to handicap and this one is no different. Just so hard to have a solid opinion on so many inconsistent horses. #12 Call or Raise is the most consistent horse TG-wise but the drop from 25k to 10k is VERY suspcious to me, especially for a trainer like Mitchell who usually is rising them in class and the horse ran well last time at the 25k level, so why drop? If Nakatini was off him, I would be tossing him, but since he is still on I have to use him. Both #8 Dark Past and #9 Hemet will be running off a last race top but with different circumstances. Dark Past recently improved 4 pts while dropping back into state breds and now is back in open company. Should be the speed of the race, in a race with lots of it (#2,#4,#6). Montelone, the trainer of #9 Hemet, is a tricky trainer. He scores with Espinoza at 31%, is 22% off the layoff and the horse has a long string of decent works. I do like that he will be stalking. #7 Alpine Sport is another that will be stalking and has past number power. Gets a 41 day break, blinkers added, two good recent works and Wallace has been 22% the last 90 days. Also consider the #5 Smoke N Wagers. I accidently bypassed his sheet and his last race is better then it looks, although he got the supreme pace setup, if the same thing happens again, the jock change could be the difference, albeit a small one

Race 5 - MSW - 8.5f
A very interesting race because I can see many people singling #5 Life at Ten, the recent Pletcher purchase. She finished very strongly once shown daylight and should improve off the barn switch (even though Hendricks have been on fire recently) and distance increase. Note that 3rd place finisher Ready for Fortune came back to win on Sunday. #6 Skylighter, trained by Frankel, has the best debut figure, and it is not too fast so improvement should also happen here. 3 good works over the strip and the Frenchman aboard, Frankel is 25% BETTER with 2nd time starters (10% 1st time winner, 35% 2nd time winners). Another that is bred to love the route distance. #1 Tates Queen should benefit tremendously from the blinkers. In her two recent performances she doesn't look focused until the final furlong, hopefully closing her sight will get her into the race earlier. She is coming into the race with a great TG pattern, one that usually signals a move forward. Hard to separate the 3 IMO.

Race 6 - Claiming 25k - 5.5 furlongs
Another very hard claiming race in California and would not fault people hitting the Schrup button. We obviously don't have that luxury. #2 Ghosttrapper returns to the 25k level after trying the 40k level and running poorly, after having some traffic issues. Sherman always dangerous, and is 23% the last 90 days. #6 Count Orange drops in class and might be returning to his friends. Tyler gets aboard and should have the right pace set up. Also seems to be cycling back to some better numbers after West has gotten a hold of him. #10 Smart Hit is dropping to his lowest level and while I am not a fan of Enriquez, he has the number power and could be a great price, always seems to be around and maybe the drop is what is needed. #11 Monarcho Polo is a hunch play. This horse keeps on getting new riders and different tactics, I am guessing he is one confused horse. That being said, he drops back to the 25k level, where he won by 5 lengths way back in November of 06. Another that could be a great price and should get a decent trip.

Race 7 - Hermosa Beach Handicap - 12 furlongs Turf

This is a forced single for me in #5 Wingspan. You gotta single somewhere, IMO, and the horse has the best numbers and best connections. Trip is less of a factor unless you get lone speed in a race like this. I am concerned with #7 Higher Love, who is shipping in from No. Cal for Steve Miyadi. That last race is a toss and if you go back to his last 4 turf races he is competitive. He is also bred to love the long route.

Race 8 - Maiden Claiming 40k - 6 furlongs
It looks like the favorite, #10 Partywithlarryz, is scratched in this race as I just went to DRF and he is no longer posted in the race. If he is in the race for some reason, he is a must use. Sadler's other horse, #3 Familiar Stranger is also a very strong contender, I would have liked to see a rise in class to the 62.5 or even MSW level but this will still do. Claimed off of Mullins, could go gate to wire. If #15 Obedience gets in, he is also a contender, getting blinkers and Nakatini with a good recent work. #4 High Investment sees like a hanger but continues to have the underestimated Joel Rosario aboard and if a pace meltdown happens, he will be right there at the end.

If I got to single it'll be Rockella in the 7th.I'd rather go down with a horse with an attitude like that.If somebody has info on a reason for this chalk horse's disappointing runs,then I'll listen,but I am not going down with that one.If they found something wrong,and fixed it,then maybe.Just seems like they shuffling her around to find some course she likes.

While I will have a hard time going against Hollendorfer, I don't think the horse will get 12 panels, unless it is a VERY slow first 6 furlongs

I would interested in the syndicate as a silent partner as well...

Awesome analysis Scavs. I'm all over Lost Paradise in the first leg. He's raced against better and he has some other angles in his favor.

Race 4 - Claiming 10k 3+ - 5.5 furlongs
Most of these cheap claimers in California are a pain in the ass to handicap and this one is no different. Just so hard to have a solid opinion on so many inconsistent horses. #12 Call or Raise is the most consistent horse TG-wise but the drop from 25k to 10k is VERY suspcious to me, especially for a trainer like Mitchell who usually is rising them in class and the horse ran well last time at the 25k level, so why drop? If Nakatini was off him, I would be tossing him, but since he is still on I have to use him. Both #8 Dark Past and #9 Hemet will be running off a last race top but with different circumstances. Dark Past recently improved 4 pts while dropping back into state breds and now is back in open company. Should be the speed of the race, in a race with lots of it (#2,#4,#6). Montelone, the trainer of #9 Hemet, is a tricky trainer. He scores with Espinoza at 31%, is 22% off the layoff and the horse has a long string of decent works. I do like that he will be stalking. #7 Alpine Sport is another that will be stalking and has past number power. Gets a 41 day break, blinkers added, two good recent works and Wallace has been 22% the last 90 days.


Those are the exact words that I wrote on my form. I am taking a stand against.

You just never know with Mitchell though and there isn't much in this race. I wouldn't be surprised to see him scratch tomorrow

Had time at work to take a look. Here is my entry.
R3: 2,4,5,6,7
R4: 8,9,10
R5: 1,5,7
R6: 2,3
R7: 5
R8: 2,3,4
$540 Ticket

Ticket #2
R3: 6,7
R4: 9,12
R5: 1,5,6
R6: 2,10
R7: 1,5
R8: 3,4
$192 ticket

$732 total. Good Luck everyone.

6,7
2,9,12
5
3,6
1,5
3,4

$96 Good Luck All

Contest Entry

R3 2-5-6-7
R4 2-8-9-12
R5 1-5-6
R6 2-3
R7 5
R8 3-6-7-14

$768

Best of luck to all.