5/3 (CD): 134th Kentucky Derby (Gr. I)
 

10th (6:04) Kentucky Derby (G1)

1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 Cool Coal Man Leparoux J R Zito Nicholas P 126 LA 20-1
2 Tale of Ekati Coa E M Tagg Barclay 126 LA 15-1
3 Anak Nakal Bejarano R Zito Nicholas P 126 Blk-Off LA 30-1
4 Court Vision Gomez G K Mott William I 126 Blk-On LA 20-1
5 Eight Belles Saez G Jones J Larry 121 LA 20-1
6 Z Fortune Albarado R J Asmussen Steven M 126 LA 15-1
7 Big Truck Castellano J J Tagg Barclay 126 LA 50-1
8 Visionaire Lezcano J Matz Michael R 126 LA 20-1
9 Pyro Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 126 LA 6-1
10 Colonel John Nakatani C S Harty Eoin 126 L 4-1
11 Z Humor Douglas R R Mott William I 126 Blk-Off LA 30-1
12 Smooth Air Cruz M R Stutts Bennie F Jr 126 L 20-1
13 Bob Black Jack Migliore R Kasparoff James M 126 Blk-On L 20-1
14 Monba Dominguez R A Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 15-1
15 Adriano Prado E S Motion H Graham 126 LA 30-1
16 Denis of Cork Borel C H Carroll David 126 LA 20-1
17 Cowboy Cal Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 20-1
18 Recapturetheglory Baird E T Roussel, III Louie J 126 LA 20-1
19 Gayego Smith M E Lobo Paulo H 126 LA 15-1
20 Big Brown Desormeaux K J Dutrow, Jr. R E 126 L 3-1

10/9/12/3

From a Colonel John basher to a touter?!

I needed him to prove he could handle the dirt. He erased those doubts, got a nice draw, there are Pyro rumors floating around, and Dutrow is an ass and suddenly he's my top choice.

MLs?

dutrow is so full of himself
 

He wants to prove to the world that he can win from the 20 hole. Good Luck. Why didn't he take the 2 hole? He's a moron. As soon as the 20 is in they spring the latch. There is a real good chance he'll miss the break from out there and then he's phucked.

10/16/9/4

Stammerin' Stank just picked Colonel John.

If you're worried about a horse whose inexperience could cost him when he gets rattled and bumped on the inside, or if you have a big, long-striding horse who needs a clear path to get his best stride, makes perfect sense. I would've tried to beat BB anyway, but I would have left him completely out of my trifectas if he was on the inside.

The undercard is LOADED with talent, short fields though...Overnights are up on Churchilldowns.com which is where i got it from

God dammit. I hate that shiat. :mad:

I wondered the same thing, but in a different way. Why not take the 2? If you break like a shot, wouldn't it be better to be in the 2 hole than have to waste all that time getting over and potentially have to use him even more?

Assuming that you're basically screwed if you blow the break, why not roll the dice with the 2 and potentially fall into a dream trip?

He could have had an Evening Attire like break and still been ahead of the horses in the 3 and 4 holes in a few strides. I could understand skipping the 2slot if there was some speed right there that truly could screw him if he missed the break but there wasn't.

BOOGADEE BOOGADEE BOO

God I love the chaos.

Exacta Box
 

4/10
Supers:
10/all/4/all
10/all/all/4

Box 2,3,9,10,16 = $20 per $1

Key Denis of Cork in all three spots in the tri with....

1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10,13 = $72 per $1 key, Total = $216 per $1....

Also, seems like drawing closely to the outside of Cowboy Cal, Recapture', Gayego, and Bob Black Jack could pose some problems for him getting the kind of sweet spot that makes a win from the 20 a real possibility.

I dunno, time will tell. I think he might just be that good, but I'd certainly be loads happier if he were in the 2.

I like the box, not as sure on keying Denis. I think I'm going to look for a logical horse on top and spread more in the second and third spots. Working around:

9,10/2,3,5,9,10,12/2,3,5,6,9,10,12,16

May play it also with Pyro/Colonel John in the second spot or just play the exacta heavier with them running second. Will probably cover a few more combos where both of them are in the top three as well.

Matz took the 8:D

Big win bet on Denis of Cork

3 horse exacta box of Denis/BigBrown/Pyro

3 horse trifecta box of Denis/Big Brown/Pyro

hate that.


damn, gayego hung out wide....and big brown in the 20, daaaaayum...

Recapture and black jack are the key to the race. Will they push the button out of the gate and refuse to let BB get position. I was thinking that Gayego was a good value but the post could give too many problems to overcome.IMO Col John made the best move of any of the colts in his last race and if he gets a clear trip down the stretch he should be able to shine.

Question: with the awful - in perception if not in reality - post and other factors, is it possible Big Brown won't go off as the favorite? If the folks on this board are any indication, there seems to be much more support for the horse breaking from the 10 post than the 20. Just an observation.

I actually like Visionaire quite a bit. But how many times over the course of the day do you think we'll have to hear that Barbaro was the 8, trained by Matz, who also trains Visionaire? Remember, they have lengthened the coverage this year...

Yeah, this really has me wondering. I think Watchmaker's M/L is low. I really think both Big Brown and Colonel John will go off around 4/1, with maybe Big Brown a tick lower at 7/2. Either way, the post is bad news for people that thought Big Brown would be some huge chalk. And all I know is even though I think he's one of the most likely winners on Saturday, I would never bet Colonel John at 4/1.

I was thinking the exact same thing. Colonel John will be the favorite. Big Brown will be 3rd choice
maybe

Looks like I have company in the crazy dept, Scav...
 

#33 Today, 12:47 PM
Scav
Royal Ascot Join Date: May 2006
Location: The Chi
Posts: 9,187

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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch
I love the hype this horse is getting...he beat El Gato Malaise by a half a length and the super offspring of Stormy Jack, Bob's Black Jack who's best race is probably a mile, by half a length at a mile and an 1/8th. Whoooppiiee!! He's never Beyered 100. Actually, he's barely shaded 5 lengths slower than 100. And, he's never run on dirt in the afternoon.

This folks is your second choice. And with the PP draw,and some more hype, could be the favorite.


here in lies the issue of old school handicapping. the Beyer over 100 isn't common on synthetics, I agree there are question marks, let there be them because I am hoping my odds hold.

You are out of your mind thinking this horse will be favored over Big Brown

I Love it...please please please make CJ the favorite...

I smell a crow pie baking in the oven ...

10/12/13/15 write it down and take it to the bank, denis of cork doesn't have a chance in hell

10 w/
2/4/5/6/8/9/12/14

10 w/
4/6/8/9/12
4/6/8/9/12

the public will hammer brown down to about 2-1

gotta remember BB was about 75-1 here for the Fla derby after drawing impossible post 12 and he still went off pretty low in "real life".
John will get lots of love as well.

Smooth Air, Bob Black Jack, and Adriano?
Ummm.............no.

16-5-6-12
Good luck ya'll:)

Tri 10/20 with 10/20 with ALL

I don't understand leaving Monba out of the back end of that tri.I think Dominguez/Pletcher need to be respected a little more than a lot of people are doing.Dominguez almost seems to set his goal as getting 2nd-4th in nice races.He has only run 1 bad race.Is it really going to surprise you if that horse gets a suck up 3rd?

i had monba pre-foy..supposedly he suffered a pretty good sized cut on his leg in that race, might help explain his one really bad effort. but i'd hate to go ga-ga over him based on the bluegrass.

question?

why is big truck biggest longshot on board at 50/1.

This guy is better then half the field.

I believe he can sneak in top 4.

but isn't big trucks claim to fame that he picked up the pieces in the tampa bay derby? he didn't do much last out...but then, neither did pyro and cool coal man!

i see him closer to the back of the field then the front....i think tale of ekati is barclays best shot at this.

I guess. But I am watching all races tonight on KD.com, and, yes he only has that 1 win this year, but his last three races look ok to me. He looks good in trafic and always tries. I like to see that. ok, BlueG was bad, maybe same excuse as Pyro, but he never has ran over CD surface. Maybe might like it,
you think?