2008 Kentucky Derby predictions
 

Okay, I know there's been a smattering of picks posted in different threads, but for the sake of centralization, post your predictions here.

If I had to pick, in order, the top four finishers:

1 -- Smooth Air
2 -- Z Fortune
3 -- Cool Coal Man
4 -- Colonel John

Towards the bottom, will also use Big Brown, Eight Belles, Pyro and Denis of Cork.

1.Gayego
2.Colonel John
3.Denis of Cork
4.Court Vision

1)Visionaire
2)Pyro
3)Colonel John
4)Denis of Cork

1) Big Brown
2) Court Vision
3) Monba
4) Colonel John

1-Brown
2-Pyro
3-Big Truck
4-Bob Black

1) Colonel John
2) Court Vision
3) Visionaire
4) Smooth Air

1) Visionaire
2) Big Brown
3) Z Humor
4) Pyro

Colonel John
Eight Belles
Denis Of Cork
Z Fortune

1) Z Fortune
2) Colonel John
3) Denis of Cork
4) Pyro

Colonel John
Denis of Cork
Court Vision
Z Fortune
Pyro

Colonel John
Denis of Cork
Pyro
Court Vision

9 of 11 posters have Colonel John in top 4 so far.

Yep ...

I can only tell you I liked the horse BEFORE he worked so well over a dirt surface. :p

At this point, I've still yet to make up my mind.

But I'm leaning towards

1.) Pyro
2.) Big Brown
3.) Recapturetheglory
4.) Colonel John

And Cowboy Cal will finish tenth. This is a guarantee.

Brian, can I ask you what it is that you like about Recapturetheglory? Just curious as that is one that I haven't seen many people pick.

He's a stab, I admit it. And the day after the Illinois Derby, I was first in line to trash him to anyone who would listen. But after watching the day's races again, it was clear to me that being on the lead and inside was the place to be, but I don't think it was anything near the advantage that people are making it out to be. Did he benefit from the track profile? Of course. But the fact remains that he ticked off remarkably consistent quarter miles throughout the race, and he wasn't going to get caught if they went around ten more times, slight inside bias or not.

I don't think he's War Emblem, but I'm willing to rate his Illinois Derby as much closer to that guy's performance than Cowtown Cat's last year.

If he were going to head to post at 12-1, I'd want nothing to do with him based on the setup of the race. But he's going to be a solid price, and since I'm of the school of thought that the track didn't help him along as much as some others think -- then he's coming into this race off what is arguably the second or third fastest race run by any Derby runner this year depending on who you ask.

Call me crazy.

My boss is putting money on him to win ... he knows someone who knows the connections or something like that. Hope you cash on him ... I can't use him, but if anyone will be right about him, it will be you. When you take a stab, it seems to work out for you! I should learn my lesson and not doubt. :D

I know I'm running about a 90% chance that he finishes dead last, but I see him as an all or nothing type on Saturday and I'm not convinced that it's going to be nothing. At his price, he won't be the worst crazy gamble on the board given the performance he turned in last time.

With that said, if he somehow wins this thing, none of my tickets will cash. I can't use him on top, but I'll use him in spots 3 & 4 definitely.

And now I'm off to bed, since opening day at Arlington is tomorrow!

in no order, BBJ, CJ, SA. i'll box an ex and tri with these 3. i'll play some on BBJ to show.

1) Big Brown
2) colonel john
3) Eight Belles
4) pyro

.................................................. ............................:D

ShadowRoll, you have the EXACT same eight horses I'm going to be using, albeit in different order. Bad news for us, eh?

Subject to change:
Tale of Ekati
Colonel John
Z Humor
Gayego

I toss off my normal handicapping goggles when it comes to a twenty horse Kentucky Derby, as I'm sure many of us do.

I haven't made final selections or combos yet, but I am focusing on the fact that both Zito and Mott each have two horses coming from the inside to mid-pack out of the gate.

ateam, if history holds, there'll be like $80 million gambled on this race. I think that's enough for you and me. Too bad for the rest of these folks, though.

I don't think I've ever been so unsure leading up to a Derby, but this is who I like approx. 36 hours out.

Big Brown- Not one to bet favorites, but right now I'm not sure anyone can
beat this one

Denis of Cork- Not sure if he can handle the distance, but he's working great

Monba- Forgive the FOY, this one is could run a big one.

Pyro- This one could end up being my top choice by tomorrow

Court Vision- Only recently has entered my radar screen.

******This is all subject to change because I'm a mess as to how I'm going
to bet this race.

in no order eight belles, pyro, smooth air and either visionaire or z futune. ex & tri boxed. if it rains i'll probably change it all.:o

still tossing things around and will try to come up with some plays today.
my focus has been on finding keys for exotics. the following are horse i'm considering for all placings;

Gayego
Eight Belles
Monba
Recapturetheglory
ZFortune

1.Big Brown
2.Pyro
3.Court Vision
4.Col. John

F-ing Calder is trying to black out all simulcast betting down here in So. FL meaning if you don't go to Calder, you can't bet... See if I EVER attend a race at Calder again if that happens. That is absolutely ridiculous!!!

IF we can bet..

My top four are:

1. Bob Black Jack
2. Visionaire
3. Cool Coal Man
4. Smooth Air (yes, even though I am mad at Calder, I do like this horse.)


Hubby is more fave orientied with a couple of long shots:

1. Colonel John
2. Pyro
3. Big Truck(who I do like. I think his last race was a throw out as his TB Derby was a big race for him. He is rested now and ready to go)
4. Court Vision

1. Colonel John
2. Court Vision
3. Pyro
4. Z Fortune

I've been on the Colonel John side for a while, mostly on pedigree grounds. I can't get my mind around a Derby winner by Gilded Times or Boundary or Grand Slam or some of these other stallions, especially when the damside support is skimpy. I feel safe with Colonel John (Tiznow over Turkoman, third dam placed in the CCA Oaks).

1. Pyro
2. Z Fortune
3. Big Brown
4. Colonel John
5. Bob Black Jack

Saver: Big Truck

1. pyro 2. z fortune 3 colonel john 4 gayego

1) DoC
2) BB
3) CJ
4) CV

1 Tale of Ekati
2 Cool Coal Man
3 Big Brown
4 Pyro/Colonel John

20. Denis of Cork


I could be wrong on my top picks, but that plug Denis of Cork will not crack the top 10. I'm amazed at how many people on here are picking this horse and NOT picking Big Brown. He had one more race and he's only posted one decent Beyer off of a god damn dream trip. Not to mention his trainer is nothing more than a glorified groom.

Good luck wasting your money on him.

1) Monba
2) Pyro
3) Court Vision

Looks like we're almost on the same page, hopefully we both get paid tomorrow. But I'm warning you now, I've never cashed a bet on the derby. So I almsot got a curse-factor as big as Hammerin Hank

Yeah, I know what you're saying. Despite Dahoss's effort to steer me away from him, I was the same guy who was touting Circular Quay last year. I wished I had listened to him and .

Bad news for all three of us then... I'm using the EXACT same 8 as well.

Big Brown
Z Fortune
Smooth Air
Colonel John
Eight Belles
Cool Coal Man

are my top 6, and protecting with Pyro and Denis of Cork.

You may be right about Cork. Like I said, by tomorrow I may not like him.
I really do think he flattens a bit after a mile, but he's working so well.