Weekend Beyers
 

DEL-Obeah (G3): UNBRIDLED BELLE 105
DEL-Susan's Girl: BON JOVI GIRL 103
CNL-Colonial Turf Cup (G2): BATTLE OF HASTINGS 92
CNL-All Along (G3): WINTER VIEW 94
BEL-New York (G2-Off the Turf): ICON PROJECT 106
CT-Dash: TRUST OR BUST 94
CT-Red Legend: BIG DRAMA 104
CT-Lady: JULIET'S SPIRIT 88
CT-WildnWndrfl: NO ADVANTAGE 99
HOL-Kerlan (L): DELTA STORM 99
HOL-Affirmed (G3): GRAZEN 100
HOL-Cinema (G3): OIL MAN 87
WO-Highlander (G3): SMART ENOUGH 102
WO-Singspiel (G2): MUSKETEER 97
WO-Queen's Plate (R): EYE OF THE LEOPARD 92


Others:
BEL (6/17-ALW): ROLLERS 107
AP (6/20-MSW): COLONEL KLINK 75
DEL (6/17-ALW): NICANOR 93

didn't see the race, but drama pulling off a triple digit beyer at the bull ring is pretty impressive.

also good to see a solid number come back for the poly specialist col. klink

-bt-

I was there. He ran a nice race, settling in nicely and drawing off when asked. I was also surprised how small he was.

And there was a good crowd on hand. Probably the most people I have seen at the CT track. Great night of racing.

Does TBD mean "we can't possibly come up with a figure to adequately quantify the lack of quality in this G2 stakes"?

Can't they just call it a 106 and then change it in a few months and a few races from now if it's wrong?

Is that supposed to be funny, clever, or stupid?

They should do figs after the fact for most turf races anyway.

As you astutely determined, a fine mix of all three.

A combination that makes for the best posts.

Kind of like establishing a number for all the handle NYRA has lost with Belmont races coming off the turf this meet. Especially the days where the main dries out under the sun and is upgraded throughout the day eventually to fast.

Surely there is a guesstimate involved with this number as well...

I do my best.

I think Battle of Hastings got a 92, which seems a little low to me in a race with an honest pace.

As for Big Drama, how is running a triple digit Beyer at a bullring any more impressive than running it on a full sized track?

When handicapping the Colonial Turf Cup earlier this week, I thought a low 90's beyer would have been the number to win it or atleast it would have been competitive. I wouldn't be surprised if the final number will be in this neighbourhood.

I'm thinking the comment in question had more to do with the infrequency of triple digit Beyers at CT than with Big Drama's ability to achieve them on either 8 furlong tracks or 6 furlong ovals.

NT

They went 6-1-8-2-3 around the track, in terms of position. Are we supposed to upgrade the on the pacers, then, Captain? :zz:

No matter how you stack it I thought Straight Story ran a pretty good race.

NT

This was a race where the on the pacers got the best of it, IMO, and the winner, while making a nice run from off the pace, was aided by an insidish trip (if memory serves me correctly). As for your guy, I wonder if the situation is different if Kent doesn't take over the pace setting duties and thus relieve him of the dirty work.

I'm not saying he would have won but didn't Al Khali look dangerously like he was on the verge of stealing the race until he inexplicably drifted wide going into the stretch. :zz:

Horse ran a good race indeed but was not given the best ride.

I'll take the runner-up over the winner of that race happily the next time they face off. Desormeaux blew the race apart with his move around the first turn, but it's not like Straight Story ever really got to relax. After loafing for the opening quarter they sped it up quite a bit. The two internal quarters between the the 2f and 6f mark were pretty strong and SS responded well despite being put to a drive with about 3fs to go and being carried to the 8 path by the future 35k claimer Al Khali.

Battle of Hastings got basically the same insanely great trip that Julia Tuttle did in the filly race. The difference is BoH has some talent. I do, however, think he's absolutely stretched to the max going more than 9 furlongs. Given the disadvantage Straight Story was at in terms of seasoning, I thought he ran really well and is certainly a decent horse.

NT

Aren't you exaggerating? 75K claimer maybe...still 3X eligible and if that's not good Wolfson could turn him into a BC winner.

You still trip like a 'pace handicapper', Nick. I'd have thought that playing SA/HOL would've worked some of that out of you.

Look at the charts for the two mentioned races; they're completely different types.

Too bad TWINSPIRES doesn't have CNL.

I suppose the Julia Tuttle combination might not have been the best. I'm still a bit sore from thinking she was home free in mid-stretch. She did, however, have the race basically gift-wrapped for her when the leader went berserk in upper stretch. The race did completely collapse and that's where she fell apart. She's a filly who needs a perfect pace-setting/stalking trip at a mile.

If I've learned to read your charts astutely, then it would have to seem that the race flow didn't work well in Straight Story's favor, especially when you factor in the variable of how wide he raced the entire way. Did you not see the winner's trip being basically ideal?

NT

Actually, without having watched her race, I thought that JT got all the worst of it, making the 1st move in what turned out to be a 3 move race. I've seen enough of these types of charts (they're probably the most prevalent in turf races) to know that when the flow is against it, there's nothing a horse can do.

I have to watch it again but off the chart I don't like SS' race. Not only because of Kent's move but it appears that Take the Points also 'moved' before him at a key point. SS appears to have gotten the best trip of the pace setters in a race that held well.

Fatten Up
 

before & after

I'd still hit it!!!

yea but FATJessica is symbolic of knowing race flow generalities.

more cushion for da pushin'

Wow, if Jessica is fat everyone women in America better go on a diet. It's a terrible outfit.

Its a bad outfit and she looks just as good on the pic on the right as the one on the left anyway. She's also overrated and a Cowboys fan but I'd still be happy to steal her from Homo... I mean Romo.

Not the outfit as much as the jeans. I was watching some special on chick jeans yesterday and it is ridiculous how one pair can look so awesome and the other look so ridiculous on you people

Now you know why we spend so much time shopping! :D

FTFY

How does that explain the shoe thing?

I hate shoes - I don't know! :o

People accessorize shoes bro, even dudes, I have a friend that has about 20 pairs of shoes, it is nuts.

I have 8 pairs and it is ridiculous

if you count boots, I think I have 6 pairs...

I've got old sneakers, flip flops, and my personal favorite, bare feet. I had some nicer shoes for work but they got ruined in my closet (water leak through the wall).

I dont understand my friend who has 4.2 million outfits and a pair of shoes to go along with every outfit. And she complains she has no money, but single handidly keeps the mall going through the reccession.

95% of the time I am barefoot or use my Masai Barefoot Technology sandals (MBT).

I have hiking boots. I have MBT sneakers.

I only have one pair of dress shoes, soley because I have a girlfriend.

In fact, back in college, I once went to the California state republican convention (I have always and always will be libertarian though!) in a suit but wore my hiking boots to the convention.

I remember being in the elevator with Pat Buchanon and his sister Bay. They were polite and friendly, but I don't think Bay liked my shoe selection.

:D

seriously race flow is awesome, and I didn't mean to get far off topic.
JESSICA:{>:


one of the "Traps" i see with race flow is once in a while mistaking the "bad horses" for being "against the flow". - like if the worst horses happen to be 1-2-3-4 for the race (which isn't that rare in a classy distance turf race)
and all those 4 quit - exactly like they should quit with their lack of talent - then you have to be careful about saying that the race flow was so favorable to those off the pace. It could still be, but what I am saying is that you always look at who is doing the quitting , not just where they happen to be bunched. The same visa-versa idea happens occasionally in dirt sprints where all the good horses happen to be 1-2-3-4 except maybe one good animal with a breathing or pallate problem that always quits.

Another thing to watch out for is giving undue credit to the rank horse or the knucklehead jockey who moves prematurely during the "rest period" before the last move. Yes, that killed his chances, but it is also easy to look great if you move early, and it is easy to blame a jockey and expect that next-out smooth trip. I think Mine That Bird was handled well by FATs and others because they noted the split fractions during the premature move and the raw times agreed with the race flow charts and the visual interpretations.

yet another , tricky situation is a kickback-heavy track such as turfway or woodbine. Anytime kickback is a factor you always have to watch the head on and the pan and try to form an opinion of whether the jockeys are riding wider. This is really less of a (direct) relationship to race flow.