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-   -   Weekend Stakes Beyers (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=34138)

Kasept 02-01-2010 05:43 AM

Weekend Stakes Beyers
 
SA-Santa Monica H (G1): Gabby's Golden Gal 95 (B. Baffert/M. Garcia)
SA-Sunshine Millions Classic: Bold Chieftain 91 (W. Morey/R. Baze)
SA-Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf: Tight Precision 94 (T. Proctor/J. Rosario)
SA-Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint: Quisisana 89 (M. Puype/R. Bejarano)

GP-Forward Gal S (G2): Bickersons 97 (K. Breen/J. Bravo)
GP-Sunshine Millions Turf: Jet Propulsion 98 (M. Wolfson/J. Leparoux)
GP-Sunshine Millions Distaff: Sweet Repent 104 (J. Braddy/M. Cruz)
GP-Sunshine Millions Sprint: This Ones for Phil 108 (R. Dutrow/J. Velazquez)

HOU-John B. Connally Turf H (G3): Acting Zippy 93 (W. Bennett/R. Albarado)
HOU-Jersey Lilly S: Love to Tell 91 (J. Caldwell/S. Sellers)

AQU-Coyote Lakes S: Tiger's Rock 93 (T. Pletcher/D. Cohen)
AQU-Correction S: Hold That Prospect 92 (G. Gullo/J. Chavez)

TAM-Manatee S: Lady Alexander 91 (B. Alexander/R. Feliciano)

FG-Marie G. Krantz Memorial H: Bubbler 94 (W. Calhoun/E. Martin)

TP-WEBN S: Kera's Kitten 79 (M. Maker/T. Pompell)

cakes44 02-01-2010 08:37 AM

That 91 in a $500,000 race for older horses is a real beaut.

The Indomitable DrugS 02-01-2010 08:46 AM

It could be worse ... the same race was worth $1 million not long ago.

slotdirt 02-01-2010 09:30 AM

Am I the only one that would find a mythical Oklahoma Millions as interesting as the Sunshine Millions?

cmorioles 02-01-2010 10:25 AM

The 108 for This One's for Phil was boosted about 5 by the Beyer boys for some reason.

cmorioles 02-01-2010 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
Am I the only one that would find a mythical Oklahoma Millions as interesting as the Sunshine Millions?

Hey, watch it!

freddymo 02-01-2010 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
The 108 for This One's for Phil was boosted about 5 by the Beyer boys for some reason.

Is boasting a fig from 103 to 108 the same as boasting it for 60 to 65.. when you boast from 103 to 108 its about a 5% inflation but 9% in the other example.. Is there significants to this or is that a poor analysis?

cmorioles 02-01-2010 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Is boasting a fig from 103 to 108 the same as boasting it for 60 to 65.. when you boast from 103 to 108 its about a 5% inflation but 9% in the other example.. Is there significants to this or is that a poor analysis?

It is a poor analysis, because a 65 is not 60% as fast as a 108, it is much faster.

freddymo 02-01-2010 10:38 AM

So making a fig 25 instead of 20 is the same as 110 to 115? I guess it seems a more dramtic inflation from 20 to 25?

cmorioles 02-01-2010 10:43 AM

It is pretty much the same. It might be a tiny bit different, but nowhere what you were suggesting. The difference at 6f between a 20 and a 100 Beyer is 5 to 6 seconds. The race takes high 60s, low 70s seconds to complete. Wrap your head around that for awhile before asking more questions. You'll get it.

freddymo 02-01-2010 10:54 AM

Interesting..

Horse A was given a 25 should have been a 20 and his next race is one were the winning par in 30

Horse B was given 95 but it should have been a 90 and his next race is one were the winning par is 100

Both theorically need to improve 10pts to win but the jump from 20-30 is equal to 90 -100.. I would have thought the 20 to 30 horses had more to improve then the 90 to 100 horse.. I guess I was very wrong again

The Indomitable DrugS 02-01-2010 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
The 108 for This One's for Phil was boosted about 5 by the Beyer boys for some reason.

Some reason?

Obviously because of the quick pace ... they've done it many times before in big races.

Remember the '01 Amsterdam when City Zip and Speightstown hooked up in an early war through insane fractions - and both lasted despite totally staggering home to a 1-2 finish.

They inflated City Zip's fig all the way to a 100 and Speightstown's to a 97 - a MUCH slower paced NY Bred maiden race at the same distance 30 minutes later went faster.

I think you would agree with me that they shouldn't do this ... because it unjustly rewards the suck-up closers.

cmorioles 02-01-2010 11:02 AM

Of course that is why they did it, and it does make horses that didn't run well look better. They do it in big races and small races alike ALL THE TIME.

freddymo 02-01-2010 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Some reason?

Obviously because of the quick pace ... they've done it many times before in big races.

Remember the '01 Amsterdam when City Zip and Speightstown hooked up in an early war through insane fractions - and both lasted despite totally staggering home to a 1-2 finish.

They inflated City Zip's fig all the way to a 100 and Speightstown's to a 97 - a MUCH slower paced NY Bred maiden race at the same distance 30 minutes later went faster.

I think you would agree with me that they shouldn't do this ... because it unjustly rewards the suck-up closers.


Do you like when they lower figs for reasons that they just believe the horses couldnt have improved as such?

smuthg 02-01-2010 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
Am I the only one that would find a mythical Oklahoma Millions as interesting as the Sunshine Millions?

how about Red River Thousands... a showdown of OK v. TX breds. Too bad Frank had to sell Lone Star and Remington.

freddymo 02-01-2010 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
Of course that is why they did it, and it does make horses that didn't run well look better. They do it in big races and small races alike ALL THE TIME.

Is this deemed the non scientific/artist license that Fig makers require?

cmorioles 02-01-2010 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Interesting..

Horse A was given a 25 should have been a 20 and his next race is one were the winning par in 30

Horse B was given 95 but it should have been a 90 and his next race is one were the winning par is 100

Both theorically need to improve 10pts to win but the jump from 20-30 is equal to 90 -100.. I would have thought the 20 to 30 horses had more to improve then the 90 to 100 horse.. I guess I was very wrong again

You are getting there. Ten points is about 7/10ths of a second on the Beyer scale. Which horses will have an easier time improving that much, those running 1:14 or those running 1:10?

cmorioles 02-01-2010 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Do you like when they lower figs for reasons that they just believe the horses couldnt have improved as such?

The biggest bet I ever made in my life was on Mossflower when she first ran in a stakes. The Beyer guys had demoted her figure for no apparent reason from a 110 to something in the low 100s if I remember right. I think it was the Hempstead. So yes, I love it, I take advantage of it when possible.

hockey2315 02-01-2010 11:09 AM

GGG got a 95

philcski 02-01-2010 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Some reason?

Obviously because of the quick pace ... they've done it many times before in big races.

Remember the '01 Amsterdam when City Zip and Speightstown hooked up in an early war through insane fractions - and both lasted despite totally staggering home to a 1-2 finish.

They inflated City Zip's fig all the way to a 100 and Speightstown's to a 97 - a MUCH slower paced NY Bred maiden race at the same distance 30 minutes later went faster.

I think you would agree with me that they shouldn't do this ... because it unjustly rewards the suck-up closers.

Wow, was that really '01? Speightstown was 6 when he won the BCS in '04 so I guess I'm getting old quick.

freddymo 02-01-2010 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
The biggest bet I ever made in my life was on Mossflower when she first ran in a stakes. The Beyer guys had demoted her figure for no apparent reason from a 110 to something in the low 100s if I remember right. I think it was the Hempstead. So yes, I love it, I take advantage of it when possible.

I wonder why they elect to not just post them as they should and subject them to creavity.I get why you wouldnt want them to change but it seems arrogant to adjust just for the sake of adjusting?

cmorioles 02-01-2010 11:25 AM

I think they do it out of ignorance, not arrogance. They don't look at pace so they don't know why the horse ran slower (or faster) than expected. Since it isn't understood, it is just assumed the track changed. That is my opinion only.

VOL JACK 02-01-2010 11:31 AM

Maybe they like to set up a bet every now and again.......my view from the grassy knoll.

freddymo 02-01-2010 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
I think they do it out of ignorance, not arrogance. They don't look at pace so they don't know why the horse ran slower (or faster) than expected. Since it isn't understood, it is just assumed the track changed. That is my opinion only.

Whatever the case its silly to rep what isnt

Linny 02-01-2010 11:49 AM

Sweet Repent continues to prove that the fillies born in 2006 are a very nice group. She's won 5 in a row, the last 3 earning Beyer's over 100. She hasn't had to beat much but she's done all they've asked.

The Indomitable DrugS 02-01-2010 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
Of course that is why they did it, and it does make horses that didn't run well look better. They do it in big races and small races alike ALL THE TIME.

They did it for some reason because they do it ALL THE TIME.

The Indomitable DrugS 02-01-2010 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
I wonder why they elect to not just post them as they should and subject them to creavity.I get why you wouldnt want them to change but it seems arrogant to adjust just for the sake of adjusting?

It's three times now that they've cut the wonder Pig's race loose from the whole card to give his race a lower fig.

cmorioles 02-01-2010 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
They did it for some reason because they do it ALL THE TIME.

Actually, they don't do it all the time, just some of the time. In my opinion that makes it even worse. I guess some figure makers for Beyer are more stringent than others.

The Indomitable DrugS 02-01-2010 09:13 PM

They did it for some reason because they do it ALL THE TIME...

But actually, they don't do it all the time, just some of the time.

cmorioles 02-01-2010 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
They did it for some reason because they do it ALL THE TIME...

But actually, they don't do it all the time, just some of the time.

I assume this is your way of poking fun. I didn't really want to get into the reasons but to point out it was done. Those that care probably already know, and those that don't care don't want to know.

I should have said they do it often. Does that make you happy?

The Indomitable DrugS 02-01-2010 10:49 PM

It doesn't take much to make me happy CJ.

A shiny set of keys might do the trick ... and a tube sock certainly would.

cmorioles 02-01-2010 10:52 PM

I have all kind of shiny keys around here. I have no idea what they open, but you can have them.

chucklestheclown 02-02-2010 02:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Is this deemed the non scientific/artist license that Fig makers require?

My secret's out. Damn it.


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