Weekend Beyers: Blind Luck 104; Sidney's 100; AmLion 98
 

AQU-Wood Memorial S (G1): Eskendereya 109 (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
AQU-Carter H (G1): Warrior's Reward 103 (I. Wilkes/J. Leparoux)
AQU-Bay Shore S (G3): Eightyfiveinafifty 100 (G. Contessa/R. Dominguez)
AQU-Excelsior S (G3): Goldsville 96 (M. Hushion/R. Dominguez)

SA-Santa Anita Derby (G1): Sidney's Candy 100 (J. Sadler/J. Talamo)
SA-Potrero Grande H (G2): Ventana 92 (B. Baffert/G. Gomez)
SA-Arcadia H (G2): Compari 95 (M. Jones/G. Gomez)
SA-Providencia S (G2): City to City 86 (J. Hollendorfer/J. Rosario)
SA-Las Flores H (G3): Mona de Momma (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)

HAW-Illinois Derby (G3): American Lion 98 (E. Harty/D. Flores)
HAW-Cryptoclearance: Shadowbdancing 92 (T. Gore/E. Razo)

OP-Oaklawn H (G2): Duke of Mischief 107 (D. Fawkes/E. Coa)
OP-Fantasy S (G2): Blind Luck 104 (J. Hollendorfer/R. Bejarano)

KEE-Central Bank Ashland S (G1): Evening Jewel 88 (J. Cassidy/K. Desormeaux)
KEE-Transylvania S (G3): Nordic Truce 90 (C. Clement/J. Leparoux)

GP-Skip Away S (G3): Arson Squad 101 (R. Dutrow/P. Lopez)
GP-Harmony Lodge H: Cassidys Pride 96 (M. Estevez/J. Lezcano)

WO-Debut S: Grazettes Landing 92 (M. Casse/P. Husbands)

TAM-OBS Sophomore S: Thank U Philippe 90 (M. Wolfson/E. Trujillo)
TAM-L and D Farm Turf Distaff S: Closeout 91 (T. Proctor/J. Castanon)
TAM-Hilton Garden Inn Sprint S: Tommy's Memory 90 (A. Ryan/D. Amiss)
TAM Stonehedge Farm S. Soph Fillies S: Dances With Ashley 81 (M. Wolfson/E. Trujillo)
TAM-Kinsman Turf Classic S: Picou 98 (C. Brown/E. Trujillo)
TAM-Sophomore Turf S: Thunder Brew 86 (A. Pecoraro/V. Lebron)

LRL-Primonetta S: All Giving 87 (F. Stites/H. Karamanos)

So the Ashland graded out as horrible as it looked visually.

Blind Luck might be able to pull a Rachael on April 30.

I'm as big a fan of Blink Luck as there is. And there's no denying that she's better than Evening Jewel (even though she was all out to beat that one last they met). But 16 Beyer points better? Now, there's a system that makes sense.:rolleyes:

Question: what did these two run in terms of Beyer # last time they met?

88's.

The Fantasy number appears to have been very easy to make.

Using Tidal Pool's 101 last out as the stick, Blind Luck's 2.5+ advantage is +4 points so a 104-105 makes perfect sense.

6.5 lengths from Tidal Pool back to No Such Word (92 in the Honeybee last) = 11 points, so the margins back up the last race and the current.

Is the difference in Blind Luck Friday at OP versus Blind Luck at DMR, SA and HOL all that tough to figure? There was a slight surface switch involved..

So, she got that ridiculous setup last out and comes back to run what I'm assuming to be a significant new top, running the same type of race?

Umm...Oaklawn has dirt. IWR, etc.

Oh. I get it. Horses are FASTER on dirt. :rolleyes:

Every time I think you can't possibly be as stupid as you seem, you prove me wrong.

I'll never doubt you again.

What are you RETARDED?

Or have you simply accepted the BEYER BS as gospel? In your case, the former would be the better option.

Certain individual horses are faster on dirt.. yes. Just as certain individual horses are faster on turf... or even possibly on the third surface. Their individual physical properties can and will make them 'faster' on different surfaces.

Your obstinacy and myopia on this particular topic is hard to understand.

Then, the 'reasonable' conclusion is that Blind Luck is 15 or so points FASTER on dirt than she is on POLY. Even though, once again, she ran the same type of race. Maybe it has something to do with BEYERS on POLY being USELESS. Think that might come into play at all?

OK, all horses are equally adept on all surfaces. Whatever you say.

Sorry: "Adept" = "good" (sort of). Didn't mean to use a word obviously beyond your grasp.

Steve

This horse ALWAYS runs the same type of race. She's just GOOD. And, the more of these SLOW poly horses that run higher figures on the dirt, the harder it will be to HIDE the inadequacy of Beyers on synthetics. I mean, even CJ is on record that the Beyers in CALI absolutely suck.

At the end of the day, this is an underused and fantastic word.

OK... Understand that point. The inadequacies argument is a different discussion. I can guarantee that Andy Beyer, Mark Hopkins and Randy Moss and everyone involved in Beyer Associates is evaluating and re-examining their formulations constantly to try and get the equation as accurate as possible for the non-organic surfaces. As Beyer himself said when he came on ATR to announce and explain the fig adjustment last January, there is nothing more important to him than providing the most valuable and accurate figures they can to us, the wagering public.

In this case with Blind Luck, you just really see the quantum difference in dirt racing and synthetic racing and how the synthetic oval mutes raw speed. Blind Luck has done fine out west because her style particularly suits the surface and how races on synthetic have come to be run.. Zenyatta is another that fits the surface/style scenario. That isn't to say that Blind Luck still couldn't be bested by dawdling pace as she was in the SA Oaks and almost was in the Las Virgenes.

She wins the Oaks if she's not blocked the length of the stretch -- which would've been a ridiculously huge accomplishment. Combined with the Las Virgenes, where Evening Jewel was 'supposed' to win, one gets a sense of how good this filly is. Then, she comes off the surface that supposedly 'favors' her running style and runs what appears to be an identical type of race (haven't done the charts for this yet.).

All I want is some consistency. I want the Beyers to be able to show that this is a good horse, whether on synthetics or dirt --- as she now has proven. Clearly, there are horses that are better on one surface over another but is this really the case here? Did this filly suddenly get good by running a respectable number or was she always good? (note: I don't know what she's run in the past and have made the assumption that her peak was around 90).

If the numbers are not comparable to each other, something I completely agree with, then why were they being throw around last year in Eclipse discussions? If they are that important then they should be on the same scale.

I highly doubt that Ventana, what looks like the west coasts best sprinter, is 15 points behind the best sprinters out east.

Oh yeah, speed figures are often used in Eclipse decisions.

You used to be much smarter. Have you been eating peyote?

Are you high, even Beyer used it as an argument last year if memory serves.

Obviously Beyer looks at them....but what percentage of voters do...and even if they do how much would it possibly affect the outcomes?

I think Crist used them as well in his arguments...so yea some people do, and my point was if the best in the business do to influence the public with their reasoning than they should be at least somewhat accurate.

The 98 Beyer for American Lion in the ILLI Derby is obviously too low.

If you believe the 98 .....

* 2nd place finisher Yawanna Twist regressed a couple points. 2nd time router with a nice trip and being bet hard for Dutrow.

* 3rd place finisher Backtalk went backwards 12 points off his last number

* 4th place finisher Turf Melody went backwards 16 points off of his last number

* 5th place finisher Dave in Dixie went backwards 12 points off of his last number and 23 points off of his two back number.

* 6th place finisher Boulder Creek went backwards 10 points.

* 7th place finisher Stephen's Got Hope went backwards 25 points.

* 8th place finisher Game Ball went backwards 18 points.

The track at Hawthorne was incredible slow ... I wonder if they cut this race loose to get it where they could make it as slow as they did .. or if they just had virtually every single horse running below form all day long?

Of course Yawanna Twist and Turf Melody ran worse considering the trips/set-ups they had last time. Yawana Twist has had unbelievably good trips in all his races. This trip was, believe it or not, his toughest. How were Turf Melody's numbers before the Gotham?

Backtalk figures to run worse going longer.

Dave in Dixie? That's funny.

The race was dominated on the front end which makes it harder for the closers to have run to their figures. However, those are some big changes. But, it wasn't much of a field.

What about all of the other route races that day?

What about them?

And why should I care?

Do you honestly think either of the first two finishers rate to run figures in the 90s going long in the future?

How about Backtalk? You figure he will run a lot of figs in the mid 80s going 1 1/8 down the road? If he runs in the Derby he makes last very tough to achieve for the others. Hell, he's slow going his best distances.

Oh, wait, I got it. You're just pissed that the figure came back what it did because you wanted to post some " look at me " thread about why the figure wouldn't be predictive.

Don't worry.....you had a decent backup plan.

But don't worry about it....you can always go to escoteric and post something about one of your brother's ex-girlfriends and a sock.

Or, better yet, say something about " why all the hating on DrugS. "

16 Beyer points at 8.5F is 1.6 seconds, or about 9 lengths. If the trouble she had in the Oaks was worth 3-4 lengths, and moving to dirt was worth 5-6 lengths (certainly reasonable assumptions, no?) the number makes a lot of sense.

She is absolutely a good horse, and the one to beat on April 30th. Synthetics make her "not as good" a horse as she is on dirt like it does to a lot of horses. Others have about equal ability on both surfaces. A third group move way up on synthetics. The same phenomenon occurs on turf- plenty of turfers can't run a lick on dirt, and excellent dirt horses just look like they're running in place over turf. It's been proven time and again over the last 4 years that synthetics are NOT a replacement for dirt, but rather a 3rd surface, and must be treated as such in both handicapping through speed figures or visual/trip/charting assessments.

I have 4 brothers and I can't even name a single ex gf of theirs.

I didn't realize names were necessary.

Only you and The Fat Man can make an 8 point difference of opinion with a speed figure into something personal.

Oh, wait, something new in your repertoire....whining.

Do you want a hug?

I'd take one from Jessica Pacheco.

Since when does what they might do in the future have any bearing on what this figure should be?

Quite frankly, the Illinois Derby figures have been indefensibly high in the past few years (several of the runners never came close to repeating their number) and it's possible they took the low end of the range when they punched the 98 because of it. Not like anyone watches any other races from Hawthorne to know if the number is good in context.

And yes- I expect Yawanna Twist to run a 90 again... When he's 2-5 in the New York Derby at FL and wins by a pole in preparation for the Albany and Empire Classic.

Thanks for the entertainment, boys.

It was circular logic to annoy DrugS.

By the way, you are either poorly evaluating this year's crop of NY Bred 3YOs or not really thinking it through....or both.

That's all you got?

I couldn't even understand it.

Now you're interupting 21 Grams.

You mean you didn't like the 'up in short arms' crack?

It only made me pity you even more.