5/7: Churchill Downs (Derby Day/2nd-13th)
 

After all the rotten weather in the Bluegrass for the fortnight leading up to this great weekend, Oaks Day at the Downs ended up a magical afternoon from every perspective. A huge crowd of 110,000 thronged the old plant under a brilliant sky, and the racing provided plenty of thrills and popular winners.

For the second year in a row, the Oaks and its' finish were as thrilling as you could possibly imagine, and as with Evening Jewel a year ago, the result fell a little bit short for me on many tickets. St. John's River (16-1) was a filly I lauded repeatedly leading up to Friday based on her excellent a.m. appearances, and Andy Leggio's Include miss harrowingly threatened Bob Baffert's Plum Pretty in the final strides thanks to a brilliant Rosie Napravnik ride. But for the second time in three years, it was a daughter of Medaglia d'Oro winning the distaffing side of the sophomore classic, providing Baffert with his second win in the race (Silverbulletday). The $130k Peachtree purchase stalked pacesetter Summer Soiree from the outset of the Oaks, and her performance staying on while other front end attendees backed up, confirmed the legitimacy of her runaway effort in the Sunland Oaks last month.

Baffert also beat me in the other leg of the late P4 that I missed, when First Dude ended his reputation as a near-misser annexing the Alysheba in a 6 horse scrambling thriller. The play throughout the card was largely successful, if slightly chalky, with a few key horses generating big returns. In addition to the first pair of P4's ($202 and $94), the American Turf and Edgewood provided the quality hits you look for on a day like Friday, with $312 and $159 triples respectively. In both cases, it was the runner up that made the mutuels attractive as Neil Howard's Close Ally (14-1) got up behind Tom Proctor's favored Banned (3-1) in the Turf, while Ken McPeek's Sassy's Dream (9-1) chased home Dale Romans' Diva Ash (7-2) in the Edgewood. (Sassy's Dream was of course the filly we hooted about on ATR after she thumped Niji's Grand Girl in a workout.)

All told, it was a good start to the weekend, and I hope you did well. Let's get to Saturday's deep card and the main event!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


SCR/CHG'S


2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 BIND 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Supreme Ruler 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Worldly 2-1 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #3 Eddie Set Go 12-1 5th


3rd: MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Golden Triumph 4-1 6th
Next Best: #4 C J Russell 5-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #9 Tyrus 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Quick Recovery 15-1 4th


4th:OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Persuading 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Perfect Shirl 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Snow Top Mountain 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #3 Shameless 20-1 4th


5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Saratoga Red 3-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Depeche Chat 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Lee Chapel 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Chasing Moonlight 12-1 9th


@$50 ($1) P4 Play:

2: 2
3: 2-4-7-9
4: 1-3-4-7-8-9-10
5: 2-4

1x4x7x2 = $56


6th: 17th Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Feels like Chamberlain Bridge isn't where he was for so long. OK as exotics include, but as much as I love him and respect Calhoun, you have to play against as winner at very low tote..

Most Likely: #3 Custom for Carlos 3-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Regally Ready 3-1 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Bridgetown 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Early Return 12-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Chamberlain Bridge 2-1 3rd


7th:25th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

The question coming out of Florida frequently regards whether Team Todd runners will hold form. Hilda's Passion was sensational winning the 'Bertie and Inside Info, but you don't know when those performances are going to manifest themselves with a tailoff. Respect her of course, but be open to options..

Most Likely: #7 Hilda's Passion 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Evening Jewel 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Amen Hallelujah 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Shotgun Gulch 6-1 5th


P4 Play Options ($12-$96):

4: 3-4-7-8 (1-5-9-10)
5: 2-4
6: 2-3-8
7: 7 (3-4-5)

MAIN: 4x2x3x1 = $24 ($1 OR $12 FOR .50)
FULL: 8x2x3x4 = 192 x .50 = $96

(SPREAD OR APPLY BACKUPS IN 4th AND 7th BASED ON YOUR BUDGET)


8th: 26th Churchill Ditaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Besides today's feature, this race feels like the day's best opportunity for an exotics score-o. I'll include the lower priced options of course, but I'm willing to be wrong using horses like Vance's Kiss Mine (20-1) and Wilkes' Vivo Per Lei (30-1) for their potential to set off fireworks. That 10-1 on Fantasia is yet another amusing ML. Will be happy getting 50% of that..

Most Likely: #7 Fantasia 10-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Kiss Mine 20-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Aruna 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Gate SCR


9th: 77th Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

This is a strategic rest stop in the late action P-X races, as a place to try to isolate/minimize your multiples. I think Apriority is very tough here and will lean heavily on him, but Regal Ransom's excellent Alysheba try Friday flatters 'Candy', and you want to use him with the top pick to get through multis..

Most Likely: #3 Apriority 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Capt. Candyman Can 9-2 4th
Best Value: #12 Here Comes Ben 10-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Mythical Power 10-1 9th


10th: 25th Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult edition of this event with everything coming down to trip. Little Mike spiked a fever and is SCR'd, but Citrus Kid seems a certain 'draw in' (Caracortado ran Friday and SCR's) which should keep Get Stormy honest. Use as many as you can afford..

Most Likely: #5 Prince Will I Am 5-1 5th
Best Value: #13 Battle of Hastings 12-1 DNF
Next Best: #12 Court Vision 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Moryba 12-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Stately Victor 30-1 11th


11th: 137th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Has been a great run up to Derby these past 2 weeks, and I hope many have been able to draw conclusions about the race from our ATR coverage. Take a big swing. It's annually the game's most unusual race circumstance, and one that is meant to be enjoyed. Good luck and 'Happy Derby'..

1 Archarcharch (10-1): Hurt by draw but not a death knell either; Has worked aggressively..
2 Brilliant Speed (30-1): Will be back early and stay on; Good candidate for bottom of Super, Hi-5..
3 Twice the Appeal (20-1): Borel destroys any value that was available; Looks good physically..
4 Stay Thirsty (20-1): Remaining Pletcher/Repole hope only modestly talented; Trained forwardly..
5 Decisive Moment (30-1): Nice horse and nice story for 50+yo Kerwin Clark; Also-ran..
6 Comma to the Top (30-1): Almost certain as pacesetter; Hard to conceive of finish in top half of chart..
7 Pants On Fire (20-1): Breen/Hall/Napravnik player hard to knock, but hard to see above minor share..
8 Dialed In (4-1): Those doubting fitness status likely misjudging conditioner that's won this twice..
9 Derby Kitten (30-1): Favorite among clockers to be last..
10 Twinspired (30-1): Being ignored and one of the interesting prices that can invade exotics at big number..
11 Master of Hounds (30-1): Being adopted by those searching for path in chaotic race; Will let him beat me..
12 Santiva (30-1): Getting late discussion as clever horse, but board hit would surprise even Kenneally..
13 Mucho Macho Man (12-1): Story too good to be true; Looks wonderful & certain to run his race. Using..
14 Shackleford (12-1): Committed to this hard running red early last week and sticking with; The choice..
15 Midnight Interlude (10-1): J-T combo copped '02 running of this; Going right way and worth including..
16 Animal Kingdom (30-1): Had maybe best pre-Derby machinations; Johnny V. inherits mount. Hmmm..
17 Soldat (12-1): Drew ideally for clear run; Sets up shop on backstretch and takes some catching. Using..
-- SCR
19 Nehro (6-1): "Too attractive" for my approach having done little in lead up to endorse at short number..
20 Watch Me Go (50-1): Nice horse and happy for O'Connell to get here. Hard to suggest for tickets..

As discussed on ATR and in the XpressBet Derby Wagering Guide, I'll key Shackleford in the top 3 slots in exactas and trifectas with those below (and likely Archarcharch). Odds listed are ML and overnight/current..

Best Value: #14 SHACKLEFORD (12-1/21-1) 4th
Next Best: #17 Soldat (12-1/17-1) 11th
Exotics Use: #8 Dialed In (4-1/5-1) 8th
Super Add: #16 Animal Kingdom (30-1/23-1) WON ($43.80)
Hi-5 Play: #13 Mucho Macho Man (12-1/12-1) 3rd
Also Include: #15 Midnight Interlude (10-1/10-1) 16th


<$50 P5 P6 Play:

7: 7
8: 6-7-10
9: 3-6
10: 4-5-12-13
11: 8-14-16-17

1x3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$100 P4 Play:

8: 5-6-7-8-10-11
9: 3-6
10: 4-5-12-13
11: 8-14-16-17

6x2x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96


12th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 De Price 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Firm Resolve 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Streakin Mohican 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 After Shock 4-1 5th


13th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Gentle Tap 3-1 WON ($10.00)
Best Value: #3 Shrill 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Shotgun Shine 7-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Totemtale 8-1 9th


<$100 P4 Play:

10: 4-5-12-13
11: 8-13-14-15-16-17
12: 4-6
13: 1-2-3-5

4x6x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $92


Good luck!
Steve

picks missing
 

steve somethimgs wromg races missing

Not done.. ;)

sry bud and thanks for the awsome picks

It's his age. He's losing it.


Thanks for everything, SB. Been too busy to follow you much the past couple weeks leading into today, but I know others have followed along and many echo my sentiments and gratitude.

Can we get a weather update for today Steve?

Great job all week...radio, here...per usual.

Good luck today.

Steve, thoughts on Doubles Partner?

LMAO Kev. :D

Owner Covello wrote on the TG board Citrus Kid will NOT run in the Woodford Reserve.

Thank you for the hard work Steve!! (Gus too) May you guys lead the way to the IRS window today!! It all culminates this evening!!

none of the AE's are drawing in for the WR....Pace looks much different with little mike out....interesting.

Thanks again Steve for all that you do. Its like waking up Christmas morning, the first thing I did was log on to read your post.

Good Luck and hope to see you on the 3rd floor.

Steve, I have 2 questions for you (or anyone who might know)

1- Regarding Santiva, did Kenneally really say he would be suprised if he hit the board?

2- I didn't see any races or charts from yesterday and will be lucky to even see the Derby today, but how was the track playing? Were there any kind of bias yesterday (I know that could change with the possible rain today)?

Thanks for the insight and Good Luck today, hope everyone is going to the window to cash many times over today.

12,

Nice now, but they're talking absolute 50-50 crapshoot for t-storms as day wears on...

And thanks very much for the kind words. It's always my pleasure.

BOL today!

Hot Pursuit was scratched in the 3rd.

http://www.equibase.com/static/latec...gesCD-USA.html

Thx Short Stack!

(Amelia's growing so fast! Looks from the picture that she's almost up to your chin!)

Seems OK but looks just a cut beneath. Many are using him prominently...

G/L today!

Mike,

Thx! Knock 'em dead today...

Too kind Root. G/L to you today... Enjoy the experience. I hope it's the once in a lifetime day everyone in the camp hopes it might be. Will try to catch up with you over there.

Matt,

No... Kenneally didn't say that he'd be surprised if he hit the board. He just seems to be feeling like he hasn't been able to come up to this they way he had hoped with Santiva.

Regarding the track, there was a pretty apparent dead rail yesterday. If I had to wager right now if it is the same today, I'd bet 'no'. Expect the rail to be better today. That seems to be Butch Lehr's M.O. on these 2 day events: Deep, tiring inside day one. Tighter, faster inside day two. Talamo doomed Caracortado Friday by staying on inside yesterday. Rosie gave St. John's River a fighting chance by getting off it late...

My pleasure delivering any insight I could muster from the pundits available. Best of luck today!

whats with this where the hell are the picks for the first race!
Just kidding!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for the insight and hard work Steve, was fun listening and reading and of course good luck as always

" :tro: "


Thx Nic. Happy Derby!

Great work, Steve. First time I'm not at the "Downs" on Derby day since 2004. Good luck today.

My opinions are pretty similar to yours, which is probably bad news for both of us. Piggybacking on you in the Derby, as I really can't get a hold on it this year.

Have a great Derby day Steve-O!

Starting off the way he finished yesterday!

Thx JS! That's a nice Derby run.. Start a new one next year. BOL today!

Thanks OEY.. Not the same in Louisville without you on hand, but you'll appreciate that I woke Tina up this morning at 5a pounding away on the keyboard!

Good luck rest of the way!

Thank You Steve!!!

Much thanks to Steve for a great week of entertainment and opinions. I had my best day "ever" when the Kingdom came home:)

Tom/Dino,

Thx. Glad you came out with something good. Thought ATR delivered some outstanding insight for the weekend. Gary Young couldn't have been clearer about Animal Kingdom. Gus had another amazing Oaks/Derby. Migliore. Welsch. Privman. Haskin. Etc. Everyone contributed something valuable.

I had a much better Friday than Saturday, and my negative opinion on Nehro hurt what was an otherwise good feel for Derby with Shack, Mucho and Animal Kingdom. Apriority beat more or less doomed the day for me.

Hope everyone did well and enjoyed the weekend. On to Baltimore and something close to normalcy after three weeks on the road.