Oaks and Derby Handicapping
 

17 days out. Its time......

Oaks-

Mamma Kimbo has done nothing wrong, tons of room to improve still. At this point shes better then Plum Pretty was last year.

Zo Impressive, I still love her and Im not giving up yet. I dont think she loved being bottled up inside and behind horses last out. Her 2 previous wins she was kept wide and in the clear. Wors is shes going to the Acorn, if she goes to the Oaks shes a must use.

Princess Arabella is another potential Baffert monster. She has also done not a thing wrong. Whats not to like.

I like to play multis... So as of now its those 3. I love it because Im fairly confident I dont have the chalk in there. On Fire Baby and Grace Hall have to be bet, and they are both beating me. If Zo Impressive does not run, I have In Lingerie and Edens Moon as potential back ups/use horses.

Derby-

Take Charge Indy has so much room to improve still. He reminds me of a much better bred Super Saver. A horse who can sit off and make a run for Calvin. Calvin does not hurt a thing at Churchill other then the price, but thats OK. I have him bet in pool 1 of the Derby future.

Bodemeister is a tough read for me. First off its the GOATs best horse. The GOAT himself has said this. Plus its the fastest horse coming in. Does he need the lead to run fast? Im not sure, Im lost on that much. If he wins in Barbaro like fashion will I be surprised? No not at all. If he duels a hot pace and collapses, I would not be surprised either. As of now, 17 days out, he is one of my 2 A's.

Dullahan.... Feels like Paddy O'Prado again. I dont play tris and supers so Paddy again wont help me. I thought Hansen ran huge Saturday and Dullahan ran him down fairly easily. Gotta respect Romans also. Feels like he could be flying late.

Alpha had a little trouble then a perfect trip after in the Wood. Im guessing he will be around 20-1. Big pedigree, top connections not much not to like.... Other then hes a bit slow. Other then Bode whos not slow though? Alpha feels like a grinder who can sit 9th-14th and just keep running late.

Daddy Long Legs as of now is a backup/C type horse. Dougie Sal likes him or liked him, I respect Doug. My brother likes him, and a close pal of mine likes him. Thats a lot of people whos horse opinions I respect who like him. Personally I dont get it, but I said the same thing going into the UAE Derby.

Ill be against Union Rags and Gemologist for sure. Might get Creative Cause in there on a deep spread ticket. Dont like the horse who just beat Creative Cause at all though..... Thats about it. Hoping people ignore the person who started this thread and actually discuss it. Exciting time of year.

I love him as a turf horse. If the Derby is moved to the Churchill Downs turf course Daddy Long Legs would win with utterly disdainful ease.

He's not entirely an unknown quantity on dirt ... he ran up the track in the BC Juvenile while Wrote (a horse he pissed on in a wickedly fast 2yo turf race in Europe that went as fast as an older Group 1 for fillies at the distance thirty minutes later) made short work of the field in the Breeders Cup Juvenile turf.

I get it, but my brothers not totally clueless with this stuff and he likes him. My buddy Adam is high on him also, has been since he bombed in BC JV turf. There will be some kinda spread ticket where Ill have him on.

I'll have a million thoughts in the next 18 days, but here goes....
Dullahan is likely my first toss of the ones who figure to take money (<10-1). I know he ran late past some tired horses in the BC, but I think that finish was phony. He was on the rail all the way and really looked to have a clean trip. Others backed up. His Keenland wins were really nice, but so were Dean's Kitten, Monba, Dominican, Brilliant Speed...whoever. He would have to work like Paddy or Animal Kingdom for me to consider him anywhere but the super.

Daddy Long Legs causes me to pause, and I"m a Scat Daddy fan, but I need more evidence that he will feel comfortable on dirt. If so, live at a price.

I think there's more in Bodemeister, but the pace scenario scares me.

Union Rags and Creative Cause are the two that I have seen move on the turn and finish. If Creative Cause will level off and finish straight, he's the one I'll go for.

I'm not auto tossing Hansen like everyone. I have my doubts he'll slow down, but when they headed him last year at the top of the stretch, he went on. If the bandwagon empties to 20-1 like the English books have him, I just have to include.

I prefer Alpha to Gemologist.

Take Charge Indy and I'll Have Another get looks.

Loved El Padrino before last, so have to keep an eye on and decide what to do. He'll be a huge price.



I like Grace Hall and wonder why the On Fire Baby seemed dead set on the Derby, then just decides to skip an April prep and train to the Oaks.

He didn't bomb in the BC Juv turf. He ran in the Juvenile...and not well either.

I like Daddy Nose Best.

Speaking of Daddy Long Legs:Not to be Confused,

Daddy Nose Best (outside) 5F in 1:00.20 in company with Hierro. Splits 12.40, 24, 35.80, 47.60. Out 6F 1:13.80, 7F 1:29.20.

Daddy Nose Best

I thought Hansen ran great in the Bluegrass and clearly his BC win was big. I dont want to use 5 or 6 horses, but Hansen is right there if I went even 5 deep.

Going to be a fun race.Its much too early but so far i like these two Union Rags and Creative Cause.

Thank you for the correction.

A month ago those were the chalks. Sticking with them might pay off.

Agree. Ill take 5-7/1 on either of them.

I think 7-1 is low end on both. I think you can get 8-12-1ish.

Double the odds on him as a month ago, on both, and really my opinion of either didn't change much.

If Rags wins the Florida Derby, he would be 3-1, but you will get twice that. Creative Cause could have been the favorite if he had won, especially since the San Felipe win looks so much better after Bode's big win.

i like dullahan, but not for the derby. he's 0-3 at churchill, and i don't see why that would change next month. he's a turfer-they need to treat him as such.
i'm tempted by gemologist, but i can't manage to pull for a pletcher horse (except for a certain filly in the belmont a few years back that is). have time tho, so we'll see.

Sticking with Union Rags :D

Are you guys all confident he can get the distance? Im not really sure he can.

even after his last? left me with some doubts.

There are reasons to like and dislike Union Rags. The fact that he only has one rather easy victory against a weak field then the Florida Derby as a 3YO is a bit frustrating. The Fountain of Youth had a soft field, featured a distance-challenged Pletcher trainee who rode a dead rail, and it ended with him beating a total bum in News Pending.

Leparoux gave Union Rags no chance to win the Florida Derby. Somehow it has been forgotten that Union Rags won the Saratoga Special in wire-to-wire fashion last year. Leparoux rode him as if he is a one-paced plug who needs race dynamics to go his way. This came one race after he let him run a little bit early, and the result was a handy win.

Even if Leparoux did hurt Union Rags' chances, there wasn't enough about his Fla Derby effort to make you stay very confident in him. The latest round of preps certainly made the odds on contenders drop, and that will help Union Rags' odds. However, if you're betting him, you are hoping that he will be able to negotiate the traffic from behind a fast pace, because Leparoux will allow him to meander through the opening half-mile, as he does nearly every horse he rides.

alpha issue??
 

just read the story on drf about the leg infection and not getting to CD when they wanted. That would concern me if i was gonna bet on him. Seems like at this stage of game there can be NO issues at all. Opinions??

Not good news....

http://www.drf.com/news/aqueduct-alpha-staying-home-now

I forecast Bodemeister winning the Preakness and running 2nd to Princess Arabella in the Belmont.

Considering the odds I am hearing, he is the first horse I throw out of the Derby. In my opinion, Baffert is short a race with this horse. He let him roll in the Ark Derby because there was little pace and he needed money to get in the Derby. I think this field is much better than the ones which Smarty Jones, Barbaro, and Big Brown were able to rate, pounce and win. The fact of the matter is the horse has never rated. He did look a lot more comfortable when the hood came off but he was on an easy lead. Twice he has been on loose leads and romped; twice he has had a horse in front of him and he lost. I think he will come out of the Derby a much better horse than going in. If he makes the lead and wins a la Winning Colors, War Emblem, Spend a Buck, then so be it, but I find that scenario highly, highly unlikely. I might throw him in a Pick 3 or a Pick 4 if he were 15-1 or so, but as a co-favorite or so, no thanks.

Obviously my comment on top reflects my opinion of the Oaks. IMHO, she is very,very, special. I think Baffert has been sitting with pocket aces since day one with this filly, and he has been blowing hard about Eden's Moon all spring to take attention away from this claasy miss.

Mamma Kimbo is no slouch.

I must admit that the thing with Princess A was for me like some Luck moment when Nolte's horse was running down the lane to violin music; however, the music started playing in the post parade rather than during the race. She looked more like your typical Drysdale mare back in the day than a Baffert. Edens Moon looks like something Baffert would train. When Arabella stepped on the track, I just sat back (she was like 3-5) and said I want to see what this girl can do cause it could be spectacular. HRTV immediately went off over her, particularly Pincay, Jr., to all of America.

Now, I was within 3 feet of Mamma Kimbo in the paddock when she broke her maiden, and there was a reason she was 6-1 or so in the midst of Baffert's historic streak. She was not an overly impressive athlete. She did run a lightning fast time that day however, and her Fantasy win was extremely impressive. You are right; she is no slouch, but it is rich man/poor man come May 4th for me.

If I am correct, but I might be mistaken, Arabella's attempt is something of a figures versus eye test scenario. I am not sure her figures have been all that good her last couple of races; however, i think they were both just public workouts for her. What do you do with a public workout that is getting a race figure? Her gallop out in the 7f allowance win was tremendous.
If you look at the works going into that race, she was verey lightly worked going into that race. The Oaks in New Mexico was a joke. We will see. As we all know, sometimes you get knocked the ____ out.

Visually speaking, Arabella is no Phone Trick.

alpha and bodiemeister my top two
subject to further health words on both

Any recommendations on how you hedge when you have some decent future pool tickets alive? I have liked Gemologist since last year and feel like I have secured some decent value relative to derby day odds. I have no reason at this point to jump ship but just curious how to approach. In df pool 2 I have an exacta box with gemologist tci and dullahan so I can't help but route for that finish.

Hansen
Gemologist
Daddy Nose Best
Alpha
Dullahan

The Wood returns to glory!

The only way Gem loses is if Bode is a freak which I don't think he is.;)

blogspot.com/

There's nothing like a first time guest that uses someone else's house to promote himself.

Only 18 days until the Derby is over!

Hmmm, looks familiar. How long until he unleashes a string of obscenities?

I'm guessing he doesn't get a chance.

Right around this time every year, you remind me of that guy at the concert who hates all the popluar songs his favorite band plays.

Of course, I always hated Wonderwall.

You're just jealous because I'm going to the Furthur concert today.

I really hope they don't play Casey Jones.

Grateful Dead, Nassau Colisuem, May 14th, 1980.....What did they close with?

No way you get this.

That was a few days after my second show.

I'll guess...US Blues or Don't Ease Me In.

Un-God-Damn-Real.

I enjoyed throwing some money in the futures. I have win bets in Pool 1&2
for TCI, and exacta box in pool 2 with CC,TCI, and Rags.

In January, I told my brother that Gemologist will be an undefeated Triple Crown Winner. Well here it is 17 days to go, and I stand by what I said in January..............Gemologist will not be denied...........When he wins The Derby and is still undefeated, you all will jump on the bandwagon. Go Gem Go..