Derby Future added for November
 

http://www.drf.com/news/churchill-do...l-end-november

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Churchill Downs officials announced late Friday that a future wager on the 2014 Kentucky Derby will be offered at the end of November, by far the earliest such parimutuel futures have been offered since first being made available in 1999.

The pool will be open for four days, from Wednesday, Nov. 27, through Saturday, Nov. 30, closing at post time of either the Remsen at Aqueduct or the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill, whichever is run first.

The three pools normally offered in the months preceding the Derby will be offered on this schedule: Feb. 6-8; Feb. 27-March 1; and March 27-29. The lone Kentucky Oaks futures pool will coincide with the second of those three.

The standard win and exacta formats remain, with 23 individually listed interests and a 24th “all others” option.

Will they ever make it a true Vegas like future and give a few hundred betting options? It would be pretty cool to see what all those options would look like in a pari-mutuel pool.

Bizarre placement. Leave it to CDI to try and squeeze the lemon some more.

Better off waiting for the day of the race then to get suckered into this lousy wager.

If they wanted to really juice the lemon they would get over that HUGE technical hurdle:rolleyes: of offering only 24 entries




Sent from my IPad Air

That's too difficult for a publicly traded company that feels the need to charge you 150 bucks to walk in the door to bet money on Derby Day.

My money is on a company 3D printing a human liver for transplant before they solve the mystery of getting over the 24 entry ceiling on a derby future bet

But yet some twat was able to rig Breeders Cup Pick Six in what 2002? What a disgrace CD is

I'm confused....they couldn't wait until after both races were run ( there is Sunday racing, no? ) and they think a pool of 24 horses, along with a field slot, over five months before the Derby, is an inviting idea?

This whole thing, the bet itself and closing before the 2yo races are done, is one of the dumbest things I've seen in a long time. What is the field, 1 to 5?

Outside of the timing when the pool closes, which I haven't looked at, getting people to talk and think about your product that much earlier is never a bad thing. There is also a pretty direct correlation between Derby handle growth and the future wager going back to when it started.

In my opinion ultimately the whole future wager concept is less about revenue off the bet, which really isn't much, and more about the chatter and getting people to talk and think Derby.

I'll just assume your joking so I can sleep tonight.

Fair enough....but they still need to enlarge the field size substantially.

Pointless unless they increase the number of individual betting interests from 23.
What is the Field going to close at? 3-5??

Less

:tro:

good points. they need to try to find ways to entice people to pay attention to horses and racing more, and things like this can only help. no reason why you can't try to generate derby interest that much earlier. it will help the preps as well.

So they want to expand the future wagers to cover races which are deemed almost worthless based on the minuscule amount of Derby points they offer? Typical.

jamming it into thanksgiving, black friday and thanksgiving weekend is also retarded...not like ky derby 6 months away is going to be exactly at the forefront of anyones schedule

william hill odds if anyone cares..pre bc so obviously have since changed

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/s...rlin-las-vegas

jamming it?

you could bet on the team that would win the stanley cup before the current nhl season started.
there are vegas odds available for the mlb 2014 season, and the dodgers are the early favorite to win the series-which is almost a year away.

you don't want to bet early, don't. but the derby future wagers fit right in line with what's available in the market.

I disagree. It's totally different from future books on sports. All 30 teams will play 162 (+/-1) games and have a "shot" at the World Series regardless of injuries, trades, etc. With FIXED odds. I would venture to guess that "maybe" 1 or 2 horses from the 23 listed will actually run in the Ky Derby. If that many. You'd have to be a fool to bet this pool this early.

This bet could make sense if you got really long odds on some relative unknown, but then again, you aren't likely to get that in an offering with only 24 horses listed.

perhaps.
i don't buy futures, but i can see why some find them enticing. if people don't like them, don't bet them. but it's certainly no harm, no foul by introducing it. i don't get the negativity surrounding this move.
it's for fun. for retirement savings tho, i recommend a 401k.

your missing my point...i don't have an issue with future wagering but having future wagering open for a 5 day window during the biggest travel season of the year and the biggest shopping day of the year is retarded..
you have to make it easy to wager not harder

Please stop using the word retarded.

Agree...very ugly.

Thank you.

tell me, for the most part, who is doing the shopping? the wagering?
also, there's this new invention...it's called a smart phone. you can wager from anywhere, at any time. even from the mall, your hotel room, the airport, etc.

and not only is it a big travel window, it's also a four day wknd-the only guaranteed four day weekend every year. i'd imagine while there's a break in football games, people could..oh, i don't know, make a quick wager? from where ever they are. you know, when not at work, where betting sites are probably blocked.

and i agree with andy, stop using that word.

The handle will decide the winner of this argument....i FIRMLY stand behind the retar...oh wait lets be politically correct ..absurd scheduling conflict...i have heard people whine for months about tracks running races on top of each other but when racing goes head to head with thanksgiving. Black Friday. Thanksgiving travel. And monster slate of NFL games its perfectly fine....handle will be trash....nobody will even know its occurring..there will be no advertising ...and that's where I sts d....racing dies for alot of people after the breeders cup...me included

big difference between future bets and not having staggered starts. obviously it would help bettors if they had time to cap different cards

If anyone is going to place a future wager on any horse this November for next years Derby, please place it with an online bookmaker overseas or go to Vegas. I'm sure they have some action for you.. More horses available at fixed odds. The Future wager as we know it here is a joke.

I don't see why you'd be a "fool" to make a bet into a pool with the same takeout as any other Churchill Downs win pool bet. Yes, there's a lot of uncertainty about a particular horse making it to the race, and to some degree, that is reflected in the odds. If you believe every listed horse is an underlay because of the uncertainty, then that makes the "All Others" a great bet.

Also, I'd make a substantial bet that more than your predicted "1 or 2 horses" from the pool make it to the Derby. In the past 10 years the fewest number of horses from Pool 1 to make it into the starting gate was 5. Next fewest was 7. In each of the last 2 years 12 horses from Pool 1 made it into the starting gate. It's certainly possible that listing the horses 2 months earlier will result in 2 or fewer entries, but the odds are small, IMO.

--Dunbar

what do yall think the "all others" odds are going to be? 2/5 im thinking

sure if you think 2:5 or 3:5 payable in 7 months is a good deal...No Thanks for me


I don't make "internet bets" but we can look back in 7 months and see

One thing CD should be able to easily do is show odds greater than 99-1. Several horses will probably be well over 100-1. You'd think they'd get more takers showing 150-1 than 99-1.

Here are the odds (to 1) of "All Others" in Pool 1 from previous years, which usually occurred in late Jan or early Feb:

1999 4.1
2000 3.5
2001 3.0
2002 2.8
2003 2.2
2004 1.8
2005 2.1
2006 3.0
2007 2.6
2008 3.3
2009 1.9
2010 1.5
2011 2.1
2012 1.5
2013 1.6

2008 was an interesting year. Someone made a moderately large bet on the 2nd day on "All Others", so that when the DRF reported the odds in Saturday's edition, it was 6-5 on "All Others". (it wouldn't have taken a very large bet to do that, given the small early action on the 1st days.) I was apparently not the only one who lost interest in "All Others" then, only to see it close at 3.3-1, odds which I'd have been thrilled to get.

--Dunbar

I looked and all others pool 1 has paid like 30% of the years

More like 47%:

YEAR, Derby Winner, Pool 1 Payout
2013 (Orb*) $5.00
2012 (I'll Have Another $60.20
2011 (Animal Kingdom*) $6.20
2010 (Super Saver) $43.20
2009 (Mine That Bird*) $5.80
2008 (Big Brown*) $8.60
2007 (Street Sense) $22.80
2006 (Barbaro) $40.20
2005 (Giacomo) $52.00
2004 (Smarty Jones*) $5.60
2003 (Funny Cide) $188.00
2002 (War Emblem*) $7.60
2001 (Monarchos) $36.60
2000 (Fusaichi Pegasus) $27.80
1999 (Charismatic*) $10.20

--Dunbar

$30 wagered as a $2 bet every year would have returned $49 which is actually a 63.3% flat return.

damn. i've never understood the attraction of this particular wager until you posted the retrospective.

it's still not anything i would consider handicapping but unless you want to argue the sample size is too small, "all others" could be a good bet.

even at 2-5 and assuming a conservative hit rate of 50% (pool 1 is 7/15 so i don't think 50% is unreasonable this much earlier) you either get a 40% return or lose everything. a long term expectation of 20% in roughly 5 months. annualized that and you're near 50%.

i don't know anyone that would be unhappy with that return.

Yes but the secret is out. The years to bet the field were much more in the beginning of the process. I used to bet a grand on it every year till the public caught on. Now it just isn't as attractive at 3/2 or less field 1....and in Nov? 2/5 to tie up my money isn't happening.