3/27-29 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4
 

2015 Kentucky Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

Runner (Pool 1 Odds) (Pool 2 Odds) (Pool 3 Odds) Pool 4 ML Odds

1 American Pharoah (12-1) (10-1) (8-1) 9-2
2 Ami's Flatter (-) (-) (-) 50-1
3 Bold Conquest (-) (-) (-) 50-1
4 Bolo (-) (-) (34-1) 20-1
5 Carpe Diem (15-1) (12-1) (10-1) 6-1
6 Daredevil (48-1) (40-1) (43-1) 30-1

7 Dortmund (9-1) (10-1) (9-1) 5-1
8 Dubai Sky (-) (-) (-) 30-1
9 El Kabeir (74-1) (39-1) (47-1) 20-1
10 Far From OVer (-) (-) (13-1) 15-1
11 Far Right (-) (48-1) (31-1) 30-1
12 Firing Line (-) (35-1) (29-1) 12-1

13 Frosted (38-1) (31-1) (-) 30-1
14 International Star (-) (44-1) (22-1) 20-1
15 Itsaknockout (-) (30-1) (30-1) 30-1
16 Keen Ice (-) (-) (27-1) 50-1
17 Madefromlucky (-) (-) (-) 30-1
18 Materiality (-) (-) (-) 20-1

19 Mr. Z (47-1) (44-1) (44-1) 50-1
20 Mubtaahij (-) (-) (-) 30-1
21 Prospect Park (-) (35-1) (26-1) 15-1
22 Upstart (53-1) (12-1) (15-1) 15-1
23 War Story (-) (-) (30-1) 60-1
24 Mutuel Field-All Others (3-5) (5-2) (4-1) 8-1

30-1 on Far Right, if we can get it, is certainly worth a look

tough to bet in this pool. most of the odds u can get close to on derby day

Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.

I suppose that were daredevil to win the wood, 30/1 would be value.

But yeah, what's the point

Whether either of those statements is true will depend on the closing odds of the Future Wager, not the ML.

--Dunbar

Well, obviously. But what I'm saying is that just about any of the horses that might be under the radar or whatever are running this weekend, so you're not likely to make any money.

If you pick and bet on the eventual winner of the Derby you will make money (80-1).

Are you talking about a particular horse that is 80-1 right now? If not, then yes you will definitely make money if you pick and bet the horse that wins the KD. Pretty sure the goal is to have a horse run in, then win the KD at the best odds possible.

What I took issue with was this blanket statement:
The Future Wager is parimutual, so there's every chance that there will be overbet and underbet horses. Saying now that there "is zero value anywhere" in the Future Wager is like saying today that there will be no value in the 8th races at Santa Anita or Gulfstream on Sunday.

--Dunbar

Yes I was overstating a bit. However, your analogy is somewhat off. At least all of the horses in the races at GP and SA are actually running in the races you mentioned.

Mr. Z for a hundred please.

Mr Z will be 15-1 on Derby day.

Unless a miracle occurs between now and then I beg to differ on mr z

:tro:

Time for a break for Mr Z. Unlikely he gets it unless he's injured though.

POOL 4 Current Odds:

1. American Pharoah 5-1
2. Ami’s Flatter 70-1
3. Bold Conquest 77-1
4. Bolo 36-1
5. Carpe Diem 10-1
6. Daredevil 55-1

7. Dortmund 7-1
8. Dubai Sky 22-1
9. El Kabeir 28-1
10. Far From Over 13-1
11. Far Right 41-1
12. Firing Line 13-1

13. Frosted 40-1
14. International Star 20-1
15. Itsaknockout 37-1
16. Keen Ice 68-1
17. Madefromlucky 91-1
18. Materiality 13-1

19. Mr. Z 51-1
20. Mubtaahij 8-1
21. Prospect Park 18-1
22. Upstart 15-1
23. War Story 49-1
24. Field (all others) 11-1

Upstart off a DQ and yesterdays trouble offers value at 15-1 in my opinion.

Just talking to Andy and he made very logical point that Upstart almost certainly will be between 15-1/20-1 (or more) given the highly prominent love interests (Bafferts'/Pletchers') that will take tons of money..

Thanks Steve. Is that 15-20/1 Derby Day or the end of today?

Derby Day..

May get to 50-1 if it gets out that I like him ;)

I'm not being sarcastic. What is it about this horse that people have liked?

I've never seen it for myself, and I view him as a horse that would clean up state bred money and pick up pieces in open company.

Value. Unless I am blown away in the next 2 weeks I see the winner coming out of Fla or Cal preps this year. You can make a case that he could be undefeated as a 3 year old and if you are giving me 15-20 to 1 then there are worse things for me to invest my money in. Of course I reserve the right to change my mind 50 times before they line them up.

hopefully one of these will be a "golden ticket"


$5 win
Far Right 39-1
Upstart 18-1

$10 win
International Star 17-1
Materiality 12-1

$35 win
Carpe Diem 10-1


-bt-

this would be true, IF every listed horse were to make the gate. If you factor that in to the equation, there really are no good bets in this pool. The odds difference makes it worth waiting for Derby day in case your horse does not run.

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 FINAL ODDS

(No. Horse Trainer P1 P2 P3 P4)

1. American Pharoah (B.Baffert) 12-1/10-1/8-1 5-1
2. Ami’s Flatter (J.Carroll) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 91-1
3. Bold Conquest (S.Asmussen) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 91-1
4. Bolo (C.Gaines) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/34-1 28-1
5. Carpe Diem (T.Pletcher) 15-1/12-1/10-1 10-1
6. Daredevil (T.Pletcher) 48-1/40-1/43-1 39-1

7. Dortmund (B.Baffert) 9-1/10-1/9-1 6-1
8. Dubai Sky (W.Mott) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 23-1
9. El Kabeir (J.Terranova) 74-1/39-1/47-1 28-1
10. Far From Over (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/13-1 14-1
11. Far Right (R.Moquett) 3-5(f)/48-1/30-1 39-1
12. Firing Line (S.Callaghan) 3-5(f)/35-1/29-1 13-1

13. Frosted (K.McLaughlin) 38-1/31-1/4-1(f) 40-1
14. International Star (M.Maker) 3-5(f)/44-1/22-1 17-1
15. Itsaknockout (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/30-1/30-1 53-1
16. Keen Ice (D.Romans) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/27-1 69-1
17. Madefromlucky (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 92-1
18. Materiality (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 12-1

19. Mr. Z (W.Lukas) 47-1/ 44-1/44-1 70-1
20. Mubtaahij (M.deKock) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 8-1
21. Prospect Park (C.Sise) 3/5(f)/35-1/26-1 18-1
22. Upstart (R.Violette) 53-1/12-1/15-1 18-1
23. War Story (T.Amoss) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/30-1 41-1
24. Field (all others) (n/a) 3-5/5-2/4-1 11-1

(f) – denotes field entry.

Win pool: $273,017
Exacta pool: $144,456
Total: $417,673
Four-pool aggregate: $1,523,175

Top 6 American horses for the derby: 3 trained by Pletcher, 2 trained by Baffert, and 1 owned by a former Baffert owner.

No problem here :rolleyes:

Arnold Zetcher (Firing Line) isn't a former Baffert owner, he's a current Baffert owner. He's had horses with Callaghan for a long time.

Those other 5 horses do represent 5 different owners that are well established with their respective trainers in Zayat, Shah, WinStar, Let's Go and Steve Marshall (Black Rock). And to be fair, you're conveniently leaving out the next 3 choices in Upstart (18-1), Int'l Star (18-1) and Prospect Park (17-1), trained/owned by veteran horseman connections in Violette/Evans, Maker/Ramsey and Sise/Wygod.

No one is a bigger critic of the concentration of talent in too few hands, but bigger outfits are going to put potential Classic horses (read stallion prospects) in the hands of Pletcher and Baffert the same way they were being put in the hands of Zito and Lukas.

The industry is just top heavy. The best horses are going to go to the owners with the deepest pockets, who will give those horses to the trainers with the highest win percentages. Its just the way it is, but it cant be good.

Zetcher choosing to give Firing Line to Callaghan rather than Baffert should be talked about. Good for him.

If Upstart is 15-1, I wil be all over him, he is genuine

Anyone who put money on Far From Over right before wagering closed should be pretty mad right now. Injury said to have occured in his gallop Saturday. Detected Sunday... Just now being announced?

Why? In the past 15 years, Pletcher and Baffert have each won one Derby, despite being annually stocked with the priciest, best-bred talent on their respective coasts. The run of recent Derby winners belies the "need" to put potential Classic horses solely in their hands and has proven that a good horse can thrive when put in the hands of other capable trainers. (The Breeders' Cup annually reinforces the notion as well.)

No argument from me. I'd like to see a wider spread of talent as much as you do. The 'why' part of the concentration gets back to the 'stallion prospect' aspect. And we have to acknowledge in this discussion that the top barns in question do 'make' stallions in the TC exercise process.

i think this is one of the reasons why it's called gambling instead of winning.
one has to expect stuff like this. hell, i had money on a sure win once-the jock fell off at the start. what are you gonna do?

:tro:

sad but true

Danzig, as you note, with the Future Wager the chance that a horse won't be in the gate on Derby Day is a known factor, and would obviously be included in handicapping the bet. But that doesn't excuse withholding information about current conditions.

However, I don't see anything to indicate that the injury was "Detected Sunday" as the original poster wrote. Pletcher is quoted in the Courier-Journal as saying the injury was detected Monday, which was well after the close of betting for the Future Wager:

http://www.courier-journal.com/story...ured/70717866/

--Dunbar

Dunbar -

I'm noting Sunday from a quote on Bloodhorse...

""He was walking a little short the day after the work," said Nick Sallusto, racing manager for majority owner Steve Marshall's Black Rock Thoroughbreds."

Perhaps they didn't do an xray or a scan on him until Monday and that's when it was over for his chances.

are you saying that American Pharoah 5-1 and Dortmund 7-1 is not a good ROI?