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-   -   Happy Ticket 11-1? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6124)

intense 10-25-2006 06:08 PM

Happy Ticket 11-1?
 
Bodog has Happy Ticket at 11-1 in their BC Futures betting... Is this a good price?

Travis Stone 10-25-2006 06:16 PM

Toss her last race, and she's right there. 11-1 might be a bit on the short side, but then again, she only has to beat a few of them.

brianwspencer 10-25-2006 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by intense
Bodog has Happy Ticket at 11-1 in their BC Futures betting... Is this a good price?

i've been planning on her falling somewhere between 9-1 and 15-1 depending -- and i think that anything in that range is a swell price on her. she rates as good a chance as anyone in there to take the whole thing, and she's going to be the biggest price of her life next saturday -- BIG overlay if you ask me.

FATPIANO 10-25-2006 06:17 PM

at 11-1 she is the horse to beat.......

Travis Stone 10-25-2006 06:27 PM

Shug said it best that though it's a competitive field, it's not one of the best Distaff fields ever. Happy Ticket is right in the mix of this group and should sit the stalking trip.

intense 10-25-2006 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
If this horse is 11-1 it's a steal. She was probably second best last out, but had a awful trip and likes Churchill a lot. I don't see her going off that high. I hope she does, but 11-1 would be very nice.


If you like it a ton, you can get 11-1 on her right now @ bodog...

Cunningham Racing 10-25-2006 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by intense
Bodog has Happy Ticket at 11-1 in their BC Futures betting... Is this a good price?

I actually think this is a GREAT price...I'm a big fan and made enough lines to know she'll be shorter than that.....she'll be under 10-1 IMO. Hell, she won CD's top Distaff race over the summer and ran pretty fast doing it. I think most of the big players out there know that the 3-year-old division was very weak this year too, which will hurt many of their odds IMO. Yes, Pine Island will be the favorite IMO, but Happy Ticket won't be over 10-1.....the decision you really have to make is taking 11-1 right now with 10 days to go or wait until BC day - when you know she'll be in the gate - and take anywhere from 6/1 - 9-1 IMO depending on any late defections in the field or if she were to work lights out in her final breeze and become a 'buzz' horse.


Your call, but that is a good price IMO - but then again I think a lot of her and believe she is the best distaffer in the country....

intense 10-25-2006 06:43 PM

she is confirmed and everything for a for sure go barring any setbacks, right?

Cunningham Racing 10-25-2006 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by intense
she is confirmed and everything for a for sure go barring any setbacks, right?

She is already at CD and doing very well from what I was told by a guy at CD I used to work with....

Cunningham Racing 10-25-2006 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Might try and get some of that action. For the mere fact that I think she will be 6 or 7-1 BC day.

I agree that is the range when the smoke clears.....

intense 10-25-2006 06:47 PM

If you guys do happen to signup there to get the bet, If you wanna use my refer number i'd appreciate it. :)

P686A60


I'll post the other odds they have in a few minutes.

intense 10-25-2006 06:49 PM

Odds to win the Breeders' Cup Classic
Saturday, November 4th, 2006

* Preview

All horses are action. No Refunds. No Parlays. Max $100
Bernardini

11/10
Brother Derek

28/1
Buzzards Bay

30/1
David Junior

19/2
Discreet Cat

8/1
George Washington

15/2
Invasor

11/2
Lava Man

9/2
Lawyer Ron

18/1
Perfect Drift

30/1
Seek Gold

23/1
Suave

30/1
Sun King

18/1
Super Frolic

30/1
Field (Any other Horse)

5/1
Odds to win the Breeders' Cup Sprint
Saturday, November 4th, 2006

* Preview

All horses are action. No Refunds. No Parlays. Max $100
Attila's Storm

16/1
Behaving Badly

13/1
Bordonaro

9/2
Commentator

14/1
Dubai Escapade

10/1
Henny Hughes

2/1
Kelly's Landing

14/1
Pomeroy

10/1
Silver Wagon

33/1
Siren Lure

5/1
Songster

35/1
Too Much Bling

10/1
War Front

13/1
Field (Any other Horse)

7/2
Odds to win the Breeders' Cup Distaff
Saturday, November 4th, 2006

* Preview

All horses are action. No Refunds. No Parlays. Max $100
Asi Siempre

23/4
Balletto

5/1
Bushfire

17/1
Fleet Indian

2/1
Happy Ticket

11/1
Healthy Addiction

8/1
Pine Island

11/2
Pool Land

9/1
Round Pond

15/1
Spun Sugar

11/1
Field (Any other Horse)

13/4
Odds to win the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Saturday, November 4th, 2006

* Preview

All horses are action. No Refunds. No Parlays. Max $100
Alexandrova

9/2
Angara

21/1
Arravale

28/1
Dance In The Mood

14/1
Film Maker

12/1
Freedonia

14/1
Germance

21/2
Gorella

4/1
Honey Ryder

14/1
Noble Stella

26/1
Ouija Board

5/2
Pictavia

27/2
Wait A While

7/2
Field (Any other Horse)

6/1
Odds to win the Breeders' Cup Turf
Saturday, November 4th, 2006

* Preview

All horses are action. No Refunds. No Parlays. Max $100
Ace

23/1
Better Talk Now

15/1
Cacique

28/5
English Channel

19/4
Go Deputy

13/1
Hurricane Run

19/4
Kings Drama

19/1
Red Rocks

9/1
Relaxed Gesture

30/1
Shirocco

19/4
T.H. Approval

19/2
The Tin Man

33/5
Field (Any other Horse)

16/5
Odds to win the Breeders' Cup Mile
Saturday, November 4th, 2006

* Preview

All horses are action. No Refunds. No Parlays. Max $100
Ad Valorem

14/1
Araafa

6/1
Aragorn

5/2
Aussie Rules

25/2
Badge Of Silver

31/2
Becrux

12/1
Brilliant

14/1
Caradak

14/1
Charmo

20/1
Echo Of Light

25/2
George Washington

15/8
Gorella

7/1
Librettist

19/2
Miesques Approval

15/1
Remarkable News

29/1
Silent Name

20/1
Stormy River

25/1
Three Valleys

31/1
Field (Any other Horse)

5/1

intense 10-25-2006 06:52 PM

anything else stand out to you guys?

Cunningham Racing 10-25-2006 06:54 PM

Just got an email back verify that my friend went out to the backside this morning and watched Happy Ticket train and said she looked spectacular - but I've seen her train many times so I can see why he said that....she always looks good to me....she is just so majestic...a beautiful mare and she is ALL racehorse......

oracle80 10-25-2006 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by intense
anything else stand out to you guys?

Anyone who doesn't play Pine Island at 8-1 is insane. Her figs are already at the level of the older fillies. being a three year old, and well rested, she is a big bet to run a new lifetime top in the Cup, and her trainer is incredibly proficient in big races and in the Breeders Cup. Get yourself some of that!!!

intense 10-25-2006 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Anyone who doesn't play Pine Island at 8-1 is insane. Her figs are already at the level of the older fillies. being a three year old, and well rested, she is a big bet to run a new lifetime top in the Cup, and her trainer is incredibly proficient in big races and in the Breeders Cup. Get yourself some of that!!!

pine island is 11/2.... I copy/pasted and they look screwy... the odds are matched up below the names .

oracle80 10-25-2006 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by intense
pine island is 11/2.... I copy/pasted and they look screwy... the odds are matched up below the names .

Well then I guess thats only a little above what she may go off at it, not worth the risk of pp draw or cough betwen now and then. Just wait for post time and unload if you like the price. Shes gonna be VERY tough to beat. The others all appear "over the top" in their form, and shes gonna surge.

intense 10-25-2006 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
Holy shiat, where do I start:

Wait a While at 13.5-1 is stealing, OUIJA BOARD is HIGHWAT ROBBERY at 23-1...are you kidding me?


you're reading them wrong too, sorry... its a bad copy paste job. the odds are under the horses name.

heres a link

https://www.bodog.com/sports-betting/horse-racing.jsp

paisjpq 10-25-2006 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
It says Happy Ticket is 2-1 on there :confused:

HAH, Henny Hughes at 10-1...wow....just keep punching...he might be the best sprinter in the last half decade....:eek:

I thought the same thing...robbery. But I think the odds are BELOW the name....

Cunningham Racing 10-25-2006 07:05 PM

Just realized that...sorry :D


Shiat, and i was just reaching for my credit card to open up a Bodog account...I was seriously about to UNLOAD! :D ...crap

zippyneedsawin 10-25-2006 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
2-1 on Kelly's Landing, WHAT:eek: ....WTF?


Personally, I don't think Bernardini loses, BUT if he does by some screwy chance I think David Junior is a great flyer at 30-1....this horse has been training like a gorilla in Europe.....he'll run big


You've got your glasses on crooked, HH is 2-1, David Juior is 19/2

intense 10-25-2006 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
JOEL YOU ARE READING THE ODDS WRONG


lollllll I hope you all signup and bet these. Bodog has insane referal bonuses for some reason.

intense 10-25-2006 07:10 PM

I put 20 on Happy Ticket @ 11-1 for now...

Cunningham Racing 10-25-2006 07:12 PM

OK, now that I've read it right, Happy Ticket is the best option and only one that appeals to me.....I really think Araafa is the true class of the Mile but 6-1 really isn't a great price in a race that is hard to win like the Mile....hell, I'm hoping to sneak out 6-1 or so on him race day.....most Americans get confused by European form....Drysdale's horse and Gorella will take all the money IMO....

zippyneedsawin 10-25-2006 07:26 PM

yeah, I'm liking Araafa a lot too... and 6-1 will be close to his odds at post time. (he'll probably be a little lower)

tanner12oz 10-25-2006 07:27 PM

siren lure 33-1
cacique 15-1

please

jpops757 10-25-2006 07:44 PM

Henny @10/1 run dont walk to the window.

intense 10-25-2006 07:50 PM

You are both reading them wrong...look at the above posts.

Dunbar 10-25-2006 07:52 PM

You can get 12.45-1 on Happy Ticket at TheGreek.com, which is a more respected book than Bodog. And you can bet up to $350.

--Dunbar

Dunbar 10-25-2006 08:01 PM

In the Classic, TheGreek has both Bodog and Pinnacle beat on every horse except a few of the 50-1 shots at Pinnacle. Here are the odds at TheGreek:

1501 Bernardini +125
1502 Invasor +715
1503 Lava Man +485
1504 Shirocco
1505 Dylan Thomas
1506 David Junior +1015
1507 Strong Contender
1509 Sun King +2050
1510 Premium Tap +2550
1511 Bellamy Road
1512 Jazil
1514 Lawyer Ron +2550
1515 Second Of June
1516 Giacomo +3550
1519 Suave +4050
1520 Super Frolic +4050
1521 Perfect Drift +3550
1524 George Washington +845
1525 Brother Derek +3550
1526 Flower Alley +4050

You can get Perfect Drift at 40-1 at Pinnacle, and BroDerek, SuperFrolic, and Flower Alley at 50-1 at Pinnacle.

--Dunbar

mclem10011 10-25-2006 08:06 PM

I agree with Travis........
 
Toss Happy Ticket's last race, that price would be a steal! I've liked this horse all year, she's been involved in some of the best finishes of the year, so far. I'll be playing her for sure, she'll be involved down the stretch, I give her a big shot!

SniperSB23 10-25-2006 08:20 PM

Happy Ticket is a nice horse but she stands no chance here. Way too much speed and she isn't even the best of the frontrunners/stalkers. Spun Sugar is the only stalker with a chance here since she runs her best races when there is a lot of pace. Unless Fleet Indian is an absolute freak (which my money will be against) the race should be all Pine Island's with Balletto making her typical move for second.

SundayStar 10-25-2006 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by intense
anything else stand out to you guys?


you mean besides the ones that are obviously not coming? shirocco for example

eurobounce 10-25-2006 11:31 PM

I am interested to see how the distaff is bet. I would say that they fav is around 4-1 or so. Be shocked if anyone was under that.

If Happy Ticket is anywhere above 8-1 then I am laying a couple of hundred on her to win.

Cunningham Racing 10-26-2006 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
I am interested to see how the distaff is bet. I would say that they fav is around 4-1 or so. Be shocked if anyone was under that.

If Happy Ticket is anywhere above 8-1 then I am laying a couple of hundred on her to win.

I see Pine Island at around 5-2 when the smoke clears and Fleet Indian will be 3-1ish.....just an educated guess...

Dunbar 10-26-2006 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
I see Pine Island at around 5-2 when the smoke clears and Fleet Indian will be 3-1ish.....just an educated guess...

In the futures at TheGreek.com, Fleet Indian is 2.65-1 and Pine Island is 6.45-1. I'll be surprised if the final odds on Pine Island as far off from TheGreek's estimate as you predict. TheGreek is very sharp, but they've made occasional blunders before.

--Dunbar


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