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-   -   3/23 (FG): Louisiana Derby Day (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=65927)

Kasept 03-16-2019 07:50 PM
3/23 (FG): Louisiana Derby Day
 

RHT2004 03-16-2019 08:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1123606)
3/23 (FG): LA DERBY ~ 100-40-20-10

1) Roiland (Amoss/Graham) 12-1
2) Lemniscate (McPeek/B. Hernandez) 15-1
3) Limonite (Asmussen/J. Ortiz) 20-1
4) Sueno (Desormeaux/Lanerie) 8-1
5) By My Standards (Calhoun/G. Saez) 12-1
6) War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) 6-5
7) Mr. Money (Calhoun/Beschizza) 20-1
8) Country House (Mott/Saez) 9-2
9) Bankit (Asmussen/I. Ortiz) 20-1
10) Spinoff (Pletcher/Velazquez) 8-1
11) Hog Creek Hustle (Foley/Mena) 12-1
Country House and Spinoff for me.

moses 03-17-2019 07:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1123607)
Country House and Spinoff for me.
I’m going to watch each horse again but that’s where I’m leaning. I like WOW but I’d guess his odds will make him unplayable.

RHT2004 03-19-2019 02:43 PM
Im torn on the 11th. Bricks is one of my all time favorite horses. He will also be 4-5 vs a strong group. Im not using War of will at all so maybe you just single Bricks and find your price in other spots.

blackthroatedwind 03-19-2019 03:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1123659)
Im torn on the 11th. Bricks is one of my all time favorite horses. He will also be 4-5 vs a strong group. Im not using War of will at all so maybe you just single Bricks and find your price in other spots.
So War of Will appears to face the softest pace he's had to deal with yet, but you think he's a total pitch?

You have a good opinion, but just tossing chalk because it's chalk likely doesn't help you. Why are you tossing this horse?

knickslions2 03-19-2019 07:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1123660)
So War of Will appears to face the softest pace he's had to deal with yet, but you think he's a total pitch?

You have a good opinion, but just tossing chalk because it's chalk likely doesn't help you. Why are you tossing this horse?
Not Baffert, Mott, Pletcher or Brown trained.

RHT2004 03-19-2019 07:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1123660)
So War of Will appears to face the softest pace he's had to deal with yet, but you think he's a total pitch?

You have a good opinion, but just tossing chalk because it's chalk likely doesn't help you. Why are you tossing this horse?
I like Country House. Im going to back up with Pletchers horse. Why back up with a heavy favorite? Im playing the race like this... Country House will move forward and be better then War of Will. The price will be better and i feel like my opinion is right. So why cover War of Will? Thats my thought process, but im open to talking about the race.

RHT2004 03-19-2019 07:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1123663)
Not Baffert, Mott, Pletcher or Brown trained.
Its getting old. Worst then Alabama lately. I still think the pms about me in the selections is your best work. You'll never get back to that level in my book.

knickslions2 03-19-2019 07:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1123665)
Its getting old. Worst then Alabama lately. I still think the pms about me in the selections is your best work. You'll never get back to that level in my book.
What you talking about. I’m just stating they are the only trainers you ever pick. Nothing malicious.

blackthroatedwind 03-19-2019 07:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1123664)
I like Country House. Im going to back up with Pletchers horse. Why back up with a heavy favorite? Im playing the race like this... Country House will move forward and be better then War of Will. The price will be better and i feel like my opinion is right. So why cover War of Will? Thats my thought process, but im open to talking about the race.
You're trying to hit a Pick-5, I assume. Why would you let the likeliest winner beat you, have some smart opinion in another leg, and blow the sequence because you're stubborn?

I like Country House more going forward as well.

knickslions2 03-19-2019 08:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1123667)
You're trying to hit a Pick-5, I assume. Why would you let the likeliest winner beat you, have some smart opinion in another leg, and blow the sequence because you're stubborn?

I like Country House more going forward as well.
Country house can improve but doesn’t this seem like a perfect setup pace wise for war of wills? I’m not a chalk guy but no way I would leave him off ticket in this race.

RHT2004 03-19-2019 08:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1123667)
You're trying to hit a Pick-5, I assume. Why would you let the likeliest winner beat you, have some smart opinion in another leg, and blow the sequence because you're stubborn?

I like Country House more going forward as well.
I have been known to blow scores leaving off big chalks.

blackthroatedwind 03-19-2019 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1123669)
I have been known to blow scores leaving off big chalks.
Don't be proud of that. You're smarter than that.

RHT2004 03-19-2019 08:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1123670)
Don't be proud of that. You're smarter than that.
Right or wrong i take stands. Anything under 8-5 is single or toss.

moses 03-19-2019 11:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1123660)
So War of Will appears to face the softest pace he's had to deal with yet, but you think he's a total pitch?

You have a good opinion, but just tossing chalk because it's chalk likely doesn't help you. Why are you tossing this horse?
Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1123668)
Country house can improve but doesn’t this seem like a perfect setup pace wise for war of wills? I’m not a chalk guy but no way I would leave him off ticket in this race.
I haven’t looked at the field very thoroughly yet but shouldn’t Spinoff be forwardly placed and possibly press the pace?

Alabama Stakes 03-20-2019 04:37 PM
Good stand
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1123671)
Right or wrong i take stands. Anything under 8-5 is single or toss.
He is an obvious go against at a short price who ran a lower Beyer last time. Why take a hoss who could be heading in the wrong direction? I’m looking for hosses whose Beyer numbers are getting higher, not lower.

ateamstupid 03-20-2019 04:41 PM
Whether or not War of Will wins Saturday, the fact that his Beyer fell two points last time while facing the toughest pace scenario of his career is not a good reason to be against him.

Alabama Stakes 03-20-2019 04:53 PM
Often it is the little things that preclude the bigger issues.

ateamstupid 03-20-2019 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1123684)
Often it is the little things that preclude the bigger issues.
Assuming that two points was a significant drop, which it isn't, you're still ignoring the context of the effort.

declansharbor 03-20-2019 09:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1123607)
Country House and Spinoff for me.
I’m with you on Spinoff.

I’ll be in Vegas this weekend until April 1st. Could very well play a gigantic (for me) cold P3.

Bricks / Serengeti / Spinoff

Stone COLD should bring back, what, $30-40 for $1?

Alabama Stakes 03-20-2019 10:00 PM
You're going to Vegas for 2 weekends of march madness ? Must be cool to be young.

moses 03-21-2019 09:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by moses (Post 1123672)
I haven’t looked at the field very thoroughly yet but shouldn’t Spinoff be forwardly placed and possibly press the pace?
I’m not sure I agree that this is going to be a soft pace for WOW.

Spinoff coming out of the 10 post may try to get front position early. Bankit started as a sprinter and gets Irad back aboard. Lemniscate likes to be up front. Sueno should be close to the pace. Of course there’s WOW. And I guess Mr. Money may try to run up front.

moses 03-21-2019 11:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by declansharbor (Post 1123689)
I’m with you on Spinoff.

I’ll be in Vegas this weekend until April 1st. Could very well play a gigantic (for me) cold P3.

Bricks / Serengeti / Spinoff

Stone COLD should bring back, what, $30-40 for $1?
Hard to bet against Serengeti Empress, though I like the #4 Sweet Diane and will probably be including her.

ateamstupid 03-21-2019 02:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by declansharbor (Post 1123689)
I’m with you on Spinoff.

I’ll be in Vegas this weekend until April 1st. Could very well play a gigantic (for me) cold P3.

Bricks / Serengeti / Spinoff

Stone COLD should bring back, what, $30-40 for $1?
Did you mean $30-40 for $2? I’d be surprised if the Bricks/Serengeti double pays more than $6 for a deuce and Spinoff will be in single digits.

cakes44 03-21-2019 07:45 PM
I like Sueno to make a big jump.

RHT2004 03-23-2019 05:39 PM
I wont say exactly how much but the 10 losing just cost me 4 figures.
I thought i was home.

jms62 03-23-2019 05:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1123823)
I wont say exactly how much but the 10 losing just cost me 4 figures.
I thought i was home.
Condolences...

RHT2004 03-23-2019 05:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1123825)
Condolences...
Thanks Jim

moses 03-23-2019 06:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1123823)
I wont say exactly how much but the 10 losing just cost me 4 figures.
I thought i was home.
Sorry man. You had the #3 in race 12? Damn.

RHT2004 03-23-2019 10:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by moses (Post 1123830)
Sorry man. You had the #3 in race 12? Damn.
I used 2 3 4 6 my ticket was 8 for 1.
Lets say i had it more then 10x.


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