Two at Toga (2024)
 

I'll give it another go. Feel free to join in.

Best Bet: Race 10 #10 Viggiedal 9/2
Not sure about 9/2 but I really like her chances today off that debut effort. Galloped out very powerfully and had been training up a storm before the debut. Typical Asmussen maintenance since and I think he's got another really fast Young filly and sitting on go today.

Best Value: Race 9 #3 Film Star 5/1
Don't love todays card now that its off the turf and this was as creative as I could get. Will be interesting to see how Linda's horses run compared to last year...I didn't find any of the others particularly compelling in here. Going to guess Linda has this one ready for this spot and maybe its early enough to get some value on her runners.

Best Bet Race 9 #5 Twirling Queen 8/1
Best Value Race 7 #6 Addicted to You 15/1

Bet: $16.00
Returned: $14.40

Film Star ran OK but seemed a little flat off the layoff. Should've been able to at least grab second. Viggiedal apparently isn't nearly as good as I thought.

Addicted to You gave me a brief thrill. Ultimately wasn't good enough with Ricardo giving a perfect trip. Luis also rode a perfect race laying just off the speed getting it done at 7/2 on Twirling Queen.

Nice card tomorrow.

Best Bet: Race 10 #6 Whitebeam 4/1
Absolutely love her in here today for better or worse. Think the last couple trips haven't worked out for different reasons. Two back was just way too fast early and thought Prat should've used her speed as more of a weapon in the last. Third off the layoff showing better than she did coming into a win in this last year and there's no In Italian in here...if Evvie Jets doesn't gun I think she's gone and if that one does I think tracking and getting more aggressive earlier will put the rest with too much to do late and hopefully she can hang on this time.
Best Value: Race 12 #5 Heymackitsjack 8/1
Not sure why Prat opted for King Moonracer in here but I think can prove best of speed with a better break today. Still ran well off the layoff jn the last showing a different dynamic. I think with a good break today will be tough to catch and I'm way against the favorite in here.

Good luck.

I will play along with you in the same races..

10th mission of joy... motion going long on the grass is always dangerous at a price. Looking for Johnny V to stay closer and look for the rail to open up...
whitebeard might be alone on the lead and without pressure. They aren't catching him.

Race 12... Sugar Gray Leonard. Ortiz gets back on board and he is a master ar sprint races. His works places him in the money here.

I agree, I wanted to like Mission of Joy. Tried her last out and think she's quite good. Can argue she ran about as well as anyone in there. I fell in love with Whitebeam but if she wins and Mission of Joy runs 2nd or third I should have some nice exactas and tris. Best of luck.

Good luck on this. I’ll probably have to skip on trying this year. My wife and I just had our 4th child (1st son) in June and I’m definitely not going to have time to do it.

Hope everyone has a great Toga.

Mose.. Mazel Tov! 4??? :eek: Wow... :wf

Congratulations... then you are not like steve and i.... we were born long enough to see and buy peanuts at the planter stores

Congrats Moses. Feel free to jump in in any says you get enough time to cap. Always appreciate your opinions. Same to dahoss and of course anyone else.

That was sweet on Whitebeam today, wish I connected the dots better but so far profited on 2/3 days at the Spa. Doubt it continues but will take that every week of the meet.

Nice Sunday card tomorrow I'm also looking forward to....hope everyone had a nice first Saturday of the meet.

Congrats and best of luck buddy

Always time for Saratoga

Best Bet: Race 6 # 10 Latte Lizzie 6/1 - Get why anyone would be tired of her act by now and maybe she's just not that good...but should be a decent price for Irad/Chad and was as fast as any of these as a 2yo. The last was really flat but hope she needed that off a freshening and if she can improve off her form from last year doesn't have to get that much better today. The entry does look pretty tough though and I also tried to make a case for Appellate who I do think is a little interesting in here as well.

Best Value: race 4 #5 My Kentucky Girl 12/1 - Going to try to get a form reversal in here, she has a race far back at this distance that could make her tough in here and the price will be right. Hoping the switch to Mott and the layoff and she's back in form today.

Super job! :tro::$:

Thanks Steve. That was pretty sweet. Thought the early races would be chalky with that as my one clever idea. Was able to catch the early pick 5 on a $12 ticket. Certainly kicking myself fir only having it for the minimum. Still was a very nice bankroll boost early on and had a pretty lucrative first week so I will take it.

Hope everyone had a nice opening week...ive started hot a few times and cooled badly so hoping I can sustain better this year.

Bet: $32.00
Returned: $74.90

Thanks all. Four is pretty crazy but all the credit goes to my wife for keeping everyone in line (mostly me, to be honest).

I’ll still be making some bets at Saratoga but won’t have the time to look at it every day. If I see anything I really love, I’ll try to post.

I jokingly told people that I was going to name him after the greatest athlete that ever lived. People guessed things like Jordan and Brady and so on…and I’d tell them — no, Secretariat (for better or worse, my wife vetoed that idea).

Best Bet: Race 8: #4 My Shea D Lady 8/1
Best Value: Race 7 #4 She's Awesome 6/1

My Shea D Lady won pretty well but lost all value due to the scratches. Ill update totals after today.

Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Grayosh 9/2
Best Value: Race 7 #2 Principe D'Oro 8/1

Bet: $48.00
Returned: $88.50

Tough beat for Grayosh who i thought was home midstretch after a less than ideal trip. Tyler's ride on Proctor Street made the difference. Dagger because I didn't have time for a write up but would've expressed I really liked Grayosh today. Had a large win bet (for me) and may have cost me many multis pending the result of the 10th. Thought the maiden was exceptional and really thought the Wonder Again had major excuses. Didn't like the other chalks at all but unfortunately didn't like the winner at all, who in hindsight was a big overlay at todays odds off that debut with lots of upside.

Interestingly I was listening to the Bet with the Best podcast today a while after making my picks and Aragona who was the latest guest pointed out how tough it can be form the Wilson chute on the rail. Watch the head on for Principe D'Oro for a case in point. Not sure the horse was nearly good enough but that was quite the trip, even more trouble after the disaster of a start. As someone in the minority and actually likes rail draws in many instances that might be worth considering moving forward.

Onto tomorrow.

Nice Start

Best Value Race 7 #8 Critical Threat
Best Bet Race 10 #3 Heart of the Night

:)

Thanks jms and casp. Guess I bet the wrong De Paz in the last although I wonder if Heart of the Njght got out he wins....cant complain on the ride by Manny though, rode a perfect race just got unlucky.

Bet: $56.00
Returned: $109.80

Was worried about you haven't seen you post in a bit hope you fared ok in that weather.

Best Bet Race 9: #3 Belouni 4/1 - Been waiting for this one to move forward and seems recently to be coming to hand. Might need another step forward tobeat Major Dude today but think there's a good chance he's sitting on a big effort.

Best Value Race 10 #7 De Regreso 6/1 - Not a huge believer in Oversubscribed yet. Feels like Manama Gold is going to take a lot of money today. Think this one can sit the right trip today and get first run.

Best Bet: Race 8 #4 Lakeside Getaway 10/1 - Excited to bet this one in here today. I thought the last race was quite good and she may have just gotten a little tired late. She very slowly was coming around and note after they laid her off she's had a tremendously steady work pattern that seems to indicate the last was no fluke and she's improved as a four year old. That number makes her about as good as anyone in here besides Firsttimeinforever but its fair to wonder if she's going a little off form given her last couple. If Lakeside improves second off the layoff as I expect and Firsttime doesnt get back to her better efforts I think she's a very likely winner today and should be a very nice price to find out.
Best Value: Race 3 #12 Sandrone 12/1 - Perhaps he's just not good enough and the outside post could be a problem but after a couple scratches I think Frankie can come running out of there and stalk or maybe try to tuck behind Royal King. This one clearly has issues staying on the track so I like how hes coming in today with a little additional time since the last trying to target a race like this at the Spa (vs the 2023 spacing).

Good luck

Hey Jim...house and fam okay, no power for 8 days, we had plenty generator power, AC, hot food, and coffee. There were many that had way less than us, never seen the amount of trees down that fell during Beryl.
Now playing catch up...hopefully I will get to watch more Toga...good luck!!

Sandrone lost all chance stumbling at the start but probably wasn't good enough anyway.
Lakeside Getaway got a great ride from Lezcano and was simply second best paying $9.20 to place.

Bet: $72.00
Returned: $119.00

Best Bet: Race 6 - #2 I'm Just Kiddin 5/1
Has a race that can beat these if ready.
Best Value: Race 5 - #7 Funny Uncle 10/1
Surprised they haven't tried turf since the debut...find it interesting Maker claims and stretches out gets some improvement with Jose aboard. He stays and now they switch to turf at a realistic class level.

Funny Uncle got it done with a furious late rally unfortunately the morning line was cut in half, still got $13.60/$7.80

Bet: $80.00
Returned: $140.40

Best Bet: Race 3 # 1/1A entry 9/2
Best Value: Race 9 #6 Freedom Speaks 15/1

Best Bet: Race 9 - #1 Accretive 5/1
Think he figures to trip out from the rail today and think we will get close to if not all or more of the generous ML despite the connections.
Best Value: Race 8 - #6 Surveillance 6/1
Think is best at 5.5 and certainly seems to handle turf. Getting similar vibes to Funny Uncle today.

Traveling today so wanted to post now. Might come back with changes and/or some analysis if I get time.

Best Bet: Race 9 - #3 Navy Seal 5/1
Best Value: Race 12 - #8 Princess Summer 15/1
Cant resist another Maker claim going to the turf with Jose up

Bet: $104.00
Returned: $168.10

Still can't believe neither half of the entry got up Thursday.
Accretive did what he does a lot and was just second best Friday. Surveillance ran to the money he took and Jose gave another excellent ride.
Thought Navy Seal was home free yesterday, some run from WestHollywood. Was pretty excited to bet Princess Summer and she offered nothing.

Best Bet: Race 7 #8 No Nay Hudson 6/1 - I think Wards horses have really been ready to run this meet despite what his win percentage shows. Liked the way he was coming along last year and he should get a great trip with Prat today. Not many of these are big on passing horses and hes the only one who likes to with any tactical speed besides perhaps Nobals of course.

Best Value: Race 10 #6 Shpilkes 12/1 - This is not typically my kind of horse, shipping up from Parx...anyway I was searching this field high and wide because I think Laurel Valley will be overbet today with the obvious running line/win by Gem Mint Ten yesterday. And I just find the other logicals to be very meh. Tried even making Manny Penny, Dolly's Bank or Kingdom on Paws but couldn't do it. Twos a Crowd is a wiseguy horse that I just couldn't really make personally. Left me looking at Shphilkes who many will dismiss setting a very slow pace winning a neck vs a weak field and Parx...and they'll probably be right...but I do wonder if that low Beyer means much given the pace...and I like how much this horse dug in and fought late. The 84 Beyer he ran on the turf last May would make him a legit contender. He ran some other decent races a ways back before going totally off form...hoping the switch back to turf has him rounding back into form and its some very dirtied up form to be sure.

Best Bet: Race 9 #6 Dark Devil 9/2
Best Value: Race 8 #4 Poca Mucha 15/1

Pica Mucha got quite a setup but proved much the best paying 22.60/7.50

Dark Devil had a strange trip looking dead onnthe turn then was really resurgent in the street paying 4.68 to places clearly second best.

Bet: $112.00
Returned: $202.80

Best Bet: Race 10 #15 welcome back babe 5/2
Best Value: Race 8 #10 Baldizar 6/1

Best Bet: Race 9 #3 Zverev 4/1- A little obvious in here but its a tricky race where lots could take money, long been high on this one, Cherie has been firing, flattered by West Hollywood...not sure we will get it but 4/1 seems generous.
Best Value: Race 6 #3 Harvard 10/1 - Atras may have found something switching to the turf.

Good luck

Best Value: Race 4 #5 Mim 20/1 - Going to be totally overlooked in here but I think actually should've been moved back to dirt already. Its a ways back but whats wrong with the dirt mile in December vs these?

Will come back with another later.

Last five picks have been some of the worst all meet. Hopefully can turn it back around.

Best Bet: Race 8 #1 Emery 5/2 - If they go for Ways and Meand as much as I expect might get all of the ML here and I just think Emery is really on the improve. The last was a little disappointing for most and maybe that will keep enough money off her but she can really finish up the way the good Cox horses do.