Street Sense's splits
 

Here is a copy of Dr Roman's post today over on the Homestretch board, I got about the same numbers (I figured in 5th's so this is more accurate). Street Sense obviously had slow early splits but his last split was excellent as Dr Roman points out!

Steve Roman

Registered User
Posts: 1391
(5/6/07 1:52 pm)
Reply

Re: Calculated Fractional Times, Pace Setter and Winner comp
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Keith,

I didn't do a calculation for Hard Spun, but I get different numbers than you do for Street Sense using BRISNET charts directly and assuming 1 length equals 0.2 seconds.

Distance, Pace, Lengths Behind
2f, 22.96, 16
4f, 46.26, 19.5
6f, 71.13, 12
8f, 97.04, 3.5
10f, 122.17, 0

Street Sense's Pace
2f, 26.16
4f, 50.16
6f, 73.53
8f, 97.74
10f, 122.17

Street Sense's Splits
0f-2f, 26.16
2f-4f, 24.00
4f-6f, 23.37
6f-8f, 24.21
8f-10f, 24.43

I only mention it because his last quarter compares favorably with the average of about 25.40 over the last 36 years. His 6f split, however, is the slowest.

In those 36 years there have been 8 sub-25 last quarters and 1 sub-24.

Street Sense Internal Fractions:

Street Sense went the first quarter mile of the Kentucky Derby in a very modest :26.61, then reeled off the second quarter in :23.45, the third in :24.02, the fourth in :23.66 and the final quarter mile in :24.43.

I have different fractions for the final 2 quarters. I am looking now to see what/why the difference is.

i got his 4th qrtr as 24.64
and his final qrtr as 24.61

could well be an error by me or the report

First of all, six lengths equals a second, and while it may vary slightly at different parts of the race, it is the universally accepted accurate way to measure lengths beaten and times.

Thus, the second set of numbers should be....


25.63

49.84

73.13

97.62

122.17


making his splits....

25.63

24.21

23.29

24.49

24.55

check your beaten lengths.

I show a little bit more than 17 for the 1st call, e.g.
(we are adding HEADS, right?)

here is my math - I am using a new spreadsheet so I a may be in error.

I have 12 beaten lengths for the 3/4 CALL

I have 3.5beaten lengths for the 1M CALL



last 4 furlongs=
=(660*(Q45-R45)+8*AE45)/(X45+0.18*BB45)
=(660feet*(4furlongs)+8feet*12beaten lengths@call)/(51.04seconds+0.18*0beatenlengths@finish)
=53.60502 feet per second
4furlongs or2640 feet/53.60502 feet per second = 49.24912281 seconds



last 2 furlongs=
=(660*(Q45-S45)+8*AF45)/(Y45+0.18*BB45)
=(660feet*(2furlongs)+8feet*3.5beatenlengths@call)/(25.13seconds+0.18*0beatenlengths@finish)
=53.64106645 feet per second
1320 feet/ 53.64106645 = 24.60801187 seconds


last4furlong time 49.24912281 seconds
minus
last 2furlong time 24.60801187 seconds
-------
= 24.64111094 seconds for 6f--->8f

Unless I'm wrong, I think your 2nd and 3rd splits are off:

second set

25.63

49.52

73.13

97.62

122.17

splits

25.63

23.88

23.62

24.49

24.55

assuming you're multiplying by .167

and using the BL above

I need to recode my program using this algorithm.
Presently using the 6 Ls per second. Not that I pay attention much attention to this. Does it matter?

Fat Man
 

I'm sure I screwed up the math....usually do. I'll take a look after the Sopranos.

now this is really odd -
If I use the traditional method of .2 (or .167) whatever seconds per length and then subtract that from the splits , I get the same answer as the original post (24.21 , 24.43).
- *see work shown below

However if I calculate it by feet per second (velocity) my answer is different.
All im doing with the velocity is saying that street sense ran more feet in the same amount of seconds(faster). The more feet comes from the 3.5 beaten lengths * 8feet in a beaten length(some use 9,10) Then I just went back and divided the total feet in 2 furlongs by the ft/s velocity.

Either I am doing something wrong with my math or their is a funky difference between the methods.




work for traditional math
*last 4 furlongs -
6f--->wire
.2 seconds *12 = 2.4
48.64

24.21



last 2 furlongs
1m ---> wire
.2seconds * 3.5 = .7

25.13 - .7 = 24.43

BTW is right, its Sopranos time.

put away your slide rules and spreadsheets, you'll figure it out later.:)