Deja Vu all over again?
This Triple Crown reminds me a lot of 1990.
In 1990, Nafzger had a solid contender in Unbridled who lost his final prep in the Blue Grass when he was compromised by a slow pace (and a rail bias that he tried to rally wide against) while Summer Squall was the beneficiary of the pace and bias and won. When the horses got to the Derby, there was plenty of speed; Summer Squall tried to rate but ended up moving a bit too soon and was just inhaled in the stretch by Unbridled. Summer Squall actually ran a pretty good race to finish 2nd; arguably he expended the most energy. Two weeks later in the Preakness, many of the speedballs from the Derby didn't enter; the pace was slower and Summer Squall beat a wide rallying Unbridled fairly convincingly.
Fast forward 17 years. Once again, Nafzger has a top contender who is a stretch runner who was compromised by the lack of pace in the Blue Grass. But when the field lined up for the Derby, they went :46 1/5 and the sizzling pace (as well as Borel's ride) was the equation for Street Sense's perfect trip, while Hard Spun ran a big race to run second. When they get to Pimlico, this has the feel of the Unbridled vs Summer Squall rivalry, and the challenger may get the best of the champ.
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