Derby Trail Forums - 10/13: KEE; CRC; Asst. Stakes

All during Saratoga, D. Wayne Lukas was getting markedly improved performances from his 2 year olds in their 2nd or 3rd starts. Friday at Keeneland, DWL sent out second-timer Cape Discovery (15-1 ML) in the very tough 7th and scored at 28-1. With predicted results following in the final three legs, the P4 returned $1,800 ($1).

2 mistakes (confidence and ticket structure) were culprits in the beat as Ravel proved trustworthy at 3-5 in the 2nd leg. While the nice $234.50 trifecta, (thanks to value player All Man third at an insane 44-1), softened the blow of missing the Quad, Ravel was embraceable as a single after all. Using Flying Circle and Stylish Wildcat ($7.40 winner) produced Leg C in the non-single suggestion, and 'Most Likely' Tempo Five ($13.60 winner) closed out the string for a $57.70 P3. Knowing that the first leg was going to be the tricky leg, an approach of 6x2x1x4 was the idea with a single, and 4x2x2x3 was an alternate plunge. Only an 8x1x2x3 (singling Ravel) would have caught the score, and I wasn't confident enough in Ravel's comebacker or Cape Discovery's ability to top several in the 7th to play it that way.

LRL and CRC host state-oriented stakes cards today, and KEE offers the Perryville and QEII as part of the Late P4 there. We'll look at Miami, Lexington and a couple of other graded events. Weather forecasts for the big venues below:

BELMONT PARK: Sunshine expected. High in the lower 60s.
CALDER RACE COURSE: Rain with a high of 82.
HAWTHORNE: Mostly sunny with a high of 61.
KEENELAND: Mostly sunny with a high of 65.
LAUREL PARK: Sunshine likely. High nearing 70.
SANTA ANITA: Mostly sunny with a high of 65.

KEENELAND

Superfectas in all..

7th: 9th Perryville, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3)

Best Value: #6 Steve's Double 6-1: Last best yet and time off to recoup.. WON
Most Likely: #4 Les Grands Trois 8-5: Victimized by Sciacca NY-bred in Bay Shore.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Shrewd Operator 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Chihulykee 4-1 5th

$1 Exacta (6-4) $33.90
$1 Trifecta (6-4-1) $168.90

8th: ALW/N2L, 2yo-F, 7f (P3)

Best Value: #6 Valentine Fever 4-1: Leparoux back on Lloyd Madison homebred.. WON
Most Likely: #3 School Girl 3-1: McGee bay chased Dreaming of Liz.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Easy Profit 6-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Democrat Taxes 10-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (6-1) $80.40
$1 Trifecta (6-1-3) $276.20

9th: 24th QE II (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD)

Best Value: #8 Costume 6-1: Doubt ML is post time price on Frankel's Danehill daughter.. 4th
Most Likely: #1 Bit of Whimsy 5-1: Tagg seeks 2 grass gal stakes here, BEL ('Capote').. WON
Exotics Use: #7 Dreaming of Anna 3-1: Dangerous of late with careful Catalano handling.. 2nd
Super Add: #4 Classic Neal 6-1: Respect KMc red that continues to improve.. 6th

$1 Exacta (1-7) $32.80

10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9.75f

Best Value: #1 Beckwith Street 6-1: Tough with repeat of maiden-breaker.. 4th
Most Likely: #3 Curvature 4-1: Visit to Cincy poly produced best last out.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Rovic's Wealth 15-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Twisting Road 15-1 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-5-6
8: 3-6
9: 1-7-8 $1 P3 (6/6/1) $516.40
10: 1-3

4x2x3x2 = $48

CALDER

Superfectas in all..

5th: The Cassidy, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, P4)

Best Value: #7 Permanent Makeup 15-1 2nd
Most Likely: #2 Yonagucci 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Robbie's Gal 6-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Sacred Realm 3-1 4th

6th: Spend a Buck (Gr. III), 3+, 8.5f (P3)

Best Value: #3 Olympic 8-1 9th
Most Likely: #9 Electrify 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Rehoboth 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Summer Book 6-1 3rd

7th: Calder Oaks, 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3)

Best Value: #6 COZZI CAPITAL 6-1 WON
Most Likely: #4 Lady Digby 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Snow Cone 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 The Real Future 15-1 7th

$1 Exacta (6-3) $16.50

8th: My Dear Girl, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3)

Best Value: #3 Calico Bay 10-1 WON
Most Likely: #4 Silk Ridge 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Asi Asi 8-1 DNF
Super Add: #7 Awesome Dreamer 4-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (3-4) $13.40
$1 Trifecta (3-4-7) $50.60

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 2-3-6-7
6: 3-9
7: 4-6
8: 3-4-9

4x2x2x3 = $48

9th: Calder Derby (Gr. III), 3yo, 9f-T (P3, P4)

Best Value: #8 Fearless Eagle 8-1 4th
Most Likely: #2 Fair Weather Stan 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Soldier's Dancer 5-2 WON
Super Add: #7 SCR

10th: In Reality, 2yo, 8.5f (P3)

Best Value: #1 Sir Dave 15-1 4th
Most Likely: #2 Wise Answer 8-5 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Inner Light 6-1 8th
Super Add: #4 SCR

11th: Shocker TH, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3)

Best Value: #2e Rose entry 15-1 4th/10th
Most Likely: #1e McDonald entry 8-5 6th/8th
Exotics Use: #7 Cat Can Do 2-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Gadolinium 20-1 2nd

12th: Birdonthewire, 2yo, 5.5f (DD)

Best Value: #8 Turnpike Tommy 6-1
Most Likely: #1 Carson's Legacy 4-1 WON
Exotics Use: #9 Unlimited Dreams 7-2
Super Add: #5 Surrealdeal 10-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (1-5) $21.50

@$50 P4 Play:

9: 2-8-10
10: 1-2-7
11: 1e
12: 1-5-6-8-9-10

3x3x1x6 = $54

BELMONT

9th: 30th Althea (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #1 I'm in Love 10-1: Exotics booster on best.. 2nd
Most Likely: #3 DANCE AWAY CAPOTE 8-5: Tagg has her dialed in.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Criminologist 2-1: Preferable to Shirl from pace standpoint.. WON

$1 Exacta (5-1) $29.75
$1 Trifecta (5-1-3) $60.00

HAWTHORNE

8th: Hawthorne Derby (Gr. III), 3yo, 9f-T (Super)

GREAT betting race and standing against #9 Twilight Meteor (4-1) 2nd who is only marginally better than most here..

Best Value: #3 Bold Hawk 10-1 WON
Most Likely: #6 Voy Por Uno Mas 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Starvinsky 5-1 5th
Super Add(s): #5 All I Can Get 20-1 10th

SANTA ANITA

9th: Oak Tree Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f-T (Super)

Best Value: #8 Ten a Penny 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Stoneside 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Asperity 4-1 10th
Super Add: #2 Karazi 12-1 5th

Good luck!
Steve