Pick4 Project? - Big Tix vs Small Tix
 

Been kicking the idea around of doing this myself. Was wondering if anyone else would be interested in participating.

Would like to handicap pick4 sequences using both a higher dollar/ multi ticket approach as well as a small ticket approach. Thought being that comparing results over time should give guidance as to which approach is more profitable.

Doing it as a group would get the sample higher much faster and if anyone participated enough, they could draw their own conclusions from thier plays alone.

Was thinking folks could post a pick4 play (large/multi and small) for same sequence at any track, whenever they feel like it. Those plays woud go into the sample (1 large, 1 small).

Would look at ROI of each if/when we got a decent sample size.

First would be to set "small" and "large" paramaters and see what tracks would be eligible. Although, I'm not sure if this is the best time of year for this.

Make any sense? Too much effort involved?

A small ticket approach would likely take forever to yield anything statistically meaningful. A large multi-way ticket might yield statistically meaningful results, but that doesn't mean it's better than the small ticket approach.

If Ellis does the 4% takeout thing again, I would participate, since I'd be betting that anyway.

--Dunbar

I dont think there is any doubt that betting one p4 for $144 versus betting 3 pick 4's for $48 each is a better way to go.

I am not saying bet EACH pick 4 that high, but if your budget is limited to bet on one pick 4 per day rather than 2 or 3 pick 4s per day.

You just have too much chance of leaving horses of value off the ticket by cutting corners on the amount bet.

Unless of course you are as good as BBB in handicapping... then you only need $16

we shall see...

There's not too much effort to post the picks. I would be interested in comparing not only the large/small parameters but also at what point does a p4 wager lose it's risk/reward value.

As an example I'll use Franks picks from last night at Hollywood from the Scav vs. TVG thread in selections.

Frank M
5: 1,2,6
6: 6,7,8
7: 3,4
8: 6,8

$ 36

For his $36 he has an option of playing the late DD 3,4/6,8 for $8 each combination. The double paid $36x4=$154
The late p3 paid $104 which he would have 3 times given a $36 investment.
3x$104=$312.
The p-4 paid $430.
Had he added the #5 in the 5th race to his combinations increasing the wager to $48 he would have cashed the p-4 for $430 but at the same time he would also have the p-3 once again bringing that total to $416 and the DD 2 more times totaling $226. In the race he missed the winner paid $10
and his choices were 3-2, 4-1 and 8-1.The question is was the risk worth the reward when only one of his choices in the 5th race would have yielded much more than $430 ?

I think the large ticket is always a much better play. I have no problem wagering up to $200 on a pick 4 ticket. I hear people playing multiple tickets with a single on each ticket. I also like that idea. You spend about the same as you would on a single large ticket. I do not understand that thought process of capping your only pick 4 ticket at $40 or so (unless the pick 4 sequence dictates as such).