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ShadowRoll 05-01-2008 08:45 PM

2008 Kentucky Derby predictions
 
Okay, I know there's been a smattering of picks posted in different threads, but for the sake of centralization, post your predictions here.

If I had to pick, in order, the top four finishers:

1 -- Smooth Air
2 -- Z Fortune
3 -- Cool Coal Man
4 -- Colonel John

Towards the bottom, will also use Big Brown, Eight Belles, Pyro and Denis of Cork.

Rileyoriley 05-01-2008 08:47 PM

1.Gayego
2.Colonel John
3.Denis of Cork
4.Court Vision

Lava 05-01-2008 08:56 PM

1)Visionaire
2)Pyro
3)Colonel John
4)Denis of Cork

lemoncrush 05-01-2008 09:20 PM

1) Big Brown
2) Court Vision
3) Monba
4) Colonel John

MarkyD 05-01-2008 09:22 PM

1-Brown
2-Pyro
3-Big Truck
4-Bob Black

Hickory Hill Hoff 05-01-2008 09:24 PM

1) Colonel John
2) Court Vision
3) Visionaire
4) Smooth Air

Zaf 05-01-2008 09:32 PM

1) Visionaire
2) Big Brown
3) Z Humor
4) Pyro

hailrazer 05-01-2008 09:35 PM

Colonel John
Eight Belles
Denis Of Cork
Z Fortune

declansharbor 05-01-2008 09:42 PM

1) Z Fortune
2) Colonel John
3) Denis of Cork
4) Pyro

Cajungator26 05-01-2008 10:44 PM

Colonel John
Denis of Cork
Court Vision
Z Fortune
Pyro

Linny 05-01-2008 11:03 PM

Colonel John
Denis of Cork
Pyro
Court Vision

pgardn 05-01-2008 11:09 PM

9 of 11 posters have Colonel John in top 4 so far.

Cajungator26 05-01-2008 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn
9 of 11 posters have Colonel John in top 4 so far.

Yep ...

I can only tell you I liked the horse BEFORE he worked so well over a dirt surface. :p

brianwspencer 05-01-2008 11:23 PM

At this point, I've still yet to make up my mind.

But I'm leaning towards

1.) Pyro
2.) Big Brown
3.) Recapturetheglory
4.) Colonel John

And Cowboy Cal will finish tenth. This is a guarantee.

Cajungator26 05-01-2008 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
At this point, I've still yet to make up my mind.

But I'm leaning towards

1.) Pyro
2.) Big Brown
3.) Recapturetheglory
4.) Colonel John

And Cowboy Cal will finish tenth. This is a guarantee.

Brian, can I ask you what it is that you like about Recapturetheglory? Just curious as that is one that I haven't seen many people pick.

brianwspencer 05-01-2008 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Brian, can I ask you what it is that you like about Recapturetheglory? Just curious as that is one that I haven't seen many people pick.

He's a stab, I admit it. And the day after the Illinois Derby, I was first in line to trash him to anyone who would listen. But after watching the day's races again, it was clear to me that being on the lead and inside was the place to be, but I don't think it was anything near the advantage that people are making it out to be. Did he benefit from the track profile? Of course. But the fact remains that he ticked off remarkably consistent quarter miles throughout the race, and he wasn't going to get caught if they went around ten more times, slight inside bias or not.

I don't think he's War Emblem, but I'm willing to rate his Illinois Derby as much closer to that guy's performance than Cowtown Cat's last year.

If he were going to head to post at 12-1, I'd want nothing to do with him based on the setup of the race. But he's going to be a solid price, and since I'm of the school of thought that the track didn't help him along as much as some others think -- then he's coming into this race off what is arguably the second or third fastest race run by any Derby runner this year depending on who you ask.

Call me crazy.

Cajungator26 05-01-2008 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
He's a stab, I admit it. And the day after the Illinois Derby, I was first in line to trash him to anyone who would listen. But after watching the day's races again, it was clear to me that being on the lead and inside was the place to be, but I don't think it was anything near the advantage that people are making it out to be. Did he benefit from the track profile? Of course. But the fact remains that he ticked off remarkably consistent quarter miles throughout the race, and he wasn't going to get caught if they went around ten more times, slight inside bias or not.

I don't think he's War Emblem, but I'm willing to rate his Illinois Derby as much closer to that guy's performance than Cowtown Cat's last year.

If he were going to head to post at 12-1, I'd want nothing to do with him based on the setup of the race. But he's going to be a solid price, and since I'm of the school of thought that the track didn't help him along as much as some others think -- then he's coming into this race off what is arguably the second or third fastest race run by any Derby runner this year depending on who you ask.

Call me crazy.

My boss is putting money on him to win ... he knows someone who knows the connections or something like that. Hope you cash on him ... I can't use him, but if anyone will be right about him, it will be you. When you take a stab, it seems to work out for you! I should learn my lesson and not doubt. :D

brianwspencer 05-01-2008 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
My boss is putting money on him to win ... he knows someone who knows the connections or something like that. Hope you cash on him ... I can't use him, but if anyone will be right about him, it will be you. When you take a stab, it seems to work out for you! I should learn my lesson and not doubt. :D

I know I'm running about a 90% chance that he finishes dead last, but I see him as an all or nothing type on Saturday and I'm not convinced that it's going to be nothing. At his price, he won't be the worst crazy gamble on the board given the performance he turned in last time.

With that said, if he somehow wins this thing, none of my tickets will cash. I can't use him on top, but I'll use him in spots 3 & 4 definitely.

And now I'm off to bed, since opening day at Arlington is tomorrow!

sumitas 05-02-2008 12:05 AM

in no order, BBJ, CJ, SA. i'll box an ex and tri with these 3. i'll play some on BBJ to show.

magic_idol 05-02-2008 01:13 AM

1) Big Brown
2) colonel john
3) Eight Belles
4) pyro

.................................................. ............................:D


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