Derby Trail Forums - 8/23: Saratoga (Travers Day)

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8/23: Saratoga (Travers Day)

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 On Board Again 7-2
Best Value: #1 (POE) Cash McCool 9-2
Next Best: #9 Aquino 5-2
Super Add: #4 Barrier Reef 15-1

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Florentino 7-2
Best Value: #1 LORD JUSTICE 8-1
Next Best: 4 Spaniard 3-1
Exotics Use: #2 Coal Baron 15-1

3rd: MSW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Tiz It 5-2
Best Value: #2 Bet the Limit 6-1
Next Best: #7 Jimmy Simms 4-1
Exotics Use: #6 Different Drummer 15-1

4th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Unbelievably difficult state-bred lawn ALW.. Virtually all possible.. Spread wide and demand value..

Most Likely: #2 Beneath the Crown 8-1
Best Value: #12 Triple Bogey Blues 15-1
Next Best: #11 Dazzling Derek 12-1
Super Add: #6 Tobruk 8-1

5th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Rogue Victory 7-2
Best Value: #3 Uncle Indy 8-1
Next Best: #8 Intercoastal 3-1
Super Add: #9 Yuletide 12-1

<$100 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-4
3: 2-4
4: 2-6-11-12
5: 3-8-9-10

3x2x4x4 = $96

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Parc des Princes 3-1
Best Value: #2 Hammock 12-1
Next Best: #8 Extra Zip 15-1
Super Add: #3 Big Stick 8-1

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Prussian 5-2
Best Value: #5 Baron Von Tap 20-1
Next Best: #3 Holiday Trip 8-1
Super Add: #6 Sir Lowry 3-1

8th: 6th Victory Ride (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 INDYANNE 6-5
Best Value: #4 Informed Decision 5-1
Next Best: #1e Zayat entry 8-1

9th: 50th Bernard Baruch (Gr. II), 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Thorn Song 3-1
Best Value: #9 Yate's Black Cat 15-1
Next Best: #7 Proudinsky 9-2
Super Add: #5 Distorted Reality 6-1

10th: 24th King's Bishop (Gr. I), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Vinery entry 3-1
Best Value: #10 I'm So Lucky 10-1
Next Best: #8 J Be K 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Golden Spikes 6-1

11th: 139th Traves (Gr. I), 3yo, 10f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Mambo in Seattle 5-1
Best Value: #6 Cool Coal Man 15-1
Next Best: #8 Harlem Rocker 4-1
Super Add: #11 Pyro 7-2

<$100 P4 Play:

8: 5
9: 2-3-5-7-9
10: 1-2-7-8-10
11: 6-8-9-11

1x5x5x4 = $100

12th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #8 Burnished Copper 3-1
Best Value: #2 Winloc's Saint Ray 8-1
Next Best: #4 Fra Lippo 4-1
Super Adds: #11 Iron Gate 6-1; #6 Rockon Rockoff 6-1

Good luck!
Steve

Suspicions confirmed

I guess you really don't sleep. It is really nice for all of us but you should probably sleep at least once and a while. Enjoy the day. Thanks again.:$:

I know Lord Justice is a big hype horse, but I think he's up against it in this spot. He's breaking from the rail and his pedigree suggests he wants to go farther anyway. I think he puts in a good showing but another speedster will steal the race. I'm playing against him (never thought I'd say that about a horse that's 8-1 on the morning line!!!!)

Good luck.

o8kd best-----1-2-11 exB be safe and ....elturko:)

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I know Lord Justice is a big hype horse, but I think he's up against it in this spot. He's breaking from the rail and his pedigree suggests he wants to go farther anyway. I think he puts in a good showing but another speedster will steal the race. I'm playing against him (never thought I'd say that about a horse that's 8-1 on the morning line!!!!)

Good luck.

scratched

I'm not sold on Thorn Song, think this race is wide open and possible spreading and excluding Thorn Song. am i crazy?

-bt-

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-

I'm not sold on Thorn Song, think this horse is wide open and possible spreading and excluding Thorn Song. am i crazy?

-bt-

Hell no. That race is wide open for sure.

Hopefully let's get started for a good betting day

R1) PK3

39
369
347 11

gl all

-bt-

Last shot at the 60-6...

PHA 9: 4-9
DEL 8: 1-2-3-5
SAR: 8: 5
PHA 10: 2-8-12
SAR 9: 2-3-6
MTH 9: 2-4-5

2x4x1x3x3x3 = $216

Good luck all... Haven't had chance to adjust above for changes..

Early P4

2 - 1,3,4,5,9
3 - 1,3,7
4 - 7,9
5 - 8,10,13

GL

Goodluck all, I had to make one single today on my pick 4, hopefully it was the right one. I'll sink or swim with Harlem Rocker in The Travers, truth is this Travers is not as strong as in previous years. So perhaps a proven miler can win it.

small stab at the early PK4 it's wide open

3
347 11
89
38 10

gl all

-bt-

Seriously...... i hope Tiz It NEVER breaks his maiden

horse can't finish a race to save his life

-bt-

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJARUM

I love Lisa Lewis

me too

I actually had a small amount on the 13 to win, and then......SLAMBINO at 88-1? Are you serious!?

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I actually had a small amount on the 13 to win, and then......SLAMBINO at 88-1? Are you serious!?

Hooves Had Em

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJARUM

Hooves Had Em

I hope Hooves played these picks with real money. He is on fire.

Paul

I have to jump into the Travers race. Will go with Cool Coal Man

I'll take 7/2 and put $30 win on Pyro and a trifecta box colonal john, pyro, macho again, and tres borrachos.

$54 total gl