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-   -   5/5: Belmont Park (4th-9th) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=35934)

Kasept 05-05-2010 07:55 AM

5/5: Belmont Park (4th-9th)
 
Full Derby-Oaks Weekend recap tomorrow with the $970k Churchill carryover, but in the meantime, good old weekday action resumes with the sextet at Belmont... Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend and profitted from the insights the ATR lineup tried to provide here and on ATR. More tomorrow.

As mentioned on ATR yesterday, Rich Migliore underwent successful surgery Tuesday. Here is a post box address if you wish to send a card or note to Mig. He'll really appreciate it...

Richard Migliore
2517 Rt. 44, #11 #253
Salt Point, NY 12578


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

7-2 on Mystic City is a terrific price. She is a lot closer to the 6-5 favorite than that...

Best Value: #7 Mystic City 7-2 2nd
Most Likely: #1 (POE) In Te Domine 6-5 WON
Next Best: #4 Considerate 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Fiona Storm 8-1 6th


5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S. P3, DD, Super)

With Rice second choice a very likely winner and several price horses ideal for exotics fun, playing against Zito fave #6 Taza (5-2)..

Most Likely: #8 MISS HANKY PANKY 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Emotional 10-1 6th
Exotics Use #6 Taza 5-2 WON
Super Add: #5 Amelia the Cat 8-1 4th


6th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Hangingbyathread is always solid, but if Believeinmenow has anything left, and Bond does very well bring horses back off long breaks, he looms the horse to beat..

Most Likely: #9 Hangingbyathread 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Believeinmenow 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Old Man Buck 8-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Xela 5-1 WON


7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Challenging group of maiden turf dashers with a number of 'must includes' and a couple of 'could surprise' types; Excluding #4 Colour the Wind (4-1) within race due to pretentious spelling, but will consider for multi's..

Best Value: #10 Emma Song 6-1 6th
Most Likely: #6 Nefertiti 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Stormy Dixie 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Straight Tiara 12-1 8th


8th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Salt Water Reign 5-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Motor City Mama 7-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Sorority Sister 6-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Bailzee 3-1 3rd


9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Very difficult group to decipher..

Most Likely: #7 Diamond Dina 5-2 WON
Best Value: #2 Storm Gal 10-1
Next Best: #6 Higher Incentive 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Silvercup Baby 8-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-9
7: 6-10
8: 2-3-5
9: 2-3-6-7-9-10

2x2x3x6 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

kenny p 05-05-2010 09:09 AM

Steve,
I'm surprised you are leaving Bailzee out of your P4. Good Luck, KP

Kasept 05-05-2010 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kenny p (Post 644289)
Steve,
I'm surprised you are leaving Bailzee out of your P4. Good Luck, KP

Kenny,

I think she needs to improve yet to beat the top pair and is an underlay at 3-1. As much as I love Pat Kelly, I's rather include Sorority as a sequence price booster with an upset chance than Bailzee.

Good luck! See you Saturday? On top of our likely running Lloyd, my body Jim Ortiz is having a 55th birthday party at the top of the stretch picnic area! Should be a great day...

SB

kenny p 05-05-2010 09:45 AM

I will be at Belmont Sat. I'll stop by and say hello. KP

Kasept 05-05-2010 10:45 AM

BEL SCR/CHG'S



5TH

4 Florida Girl Early


6TH

4 Medjool Early


7TH

1A Obey the Rules Early
8 Grecian Maiden Early

ateamstupid 05-05-2010 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 644263)
Excluding #4 Colour the Wind (4-1) within race due to to pretentious spelling, but will consider for multi's..

:tro:

ateamstupid 05-05-2010 12:36 PM

Nice ride Jackie. :zz:

docicu3 05-05-2010 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 644381)
Nice ride Jackie. :zz:

Those are the beats I have to stay away from the gun collection......

fantini33 05-05-2010 01:22 PM

Insane early $$$$ on the entry in Race #4. Assures a nice overlay on Mystic City. All pools currently neg with 13 MTP. Seems like a clever opportunity in this big field to play BIG against.

the_fat_man 05-05-2010 01:34 PM

10:1 on the 7 / 1 exacta is a fair bet here.

fantini33 05-05-2010 01:35 PM

Considering a giant WPS bet here on the #7. This DEFINES the word value!

the_fat_man 05-05-2010 01:39 PM

Dominguez is just too ****in' good.

ateamstupid 05-05-2010 01:48 PM

In Te Domine is a serious filly. Makes one wonder how Ramon took three tries to get her to the winner's circle.

Gaining Ground 05-05-2010 02:38 PM

late pick 4

1,2,9 with 2,3,6,10 with 1,8 with 2,6,9

NTamm1215 05-05-2010 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaining Ground (Post 644436)
late pick 4

1,2,9 with 2,3,6,10 with 1,8 with 2,6,9

Good start, I'll be rooting for you the rest of the way.

NT

the_fat_man 05-05-2010 03:17 PM

That's one of those situations I still can't quite figure out how to play: horse is too short to bet to win and I can't settle on a 2nd horse.

That was a duck out.

Gaining Ground 05-05-2010 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 644440)
Good start, I'll be rooting for you the rest of the way.

NT

thanks anyway, but it was stupid leaving the kimmel horse out.

will try to salvage with the late double

$10
8 over 2,6,9

9th race

$40 win 9

the_fat_man 05-05-2010 03:59 PM

I could be wrong but it appeared that Bailzee went the entire race lefty. Of course, Espinoza did beat her up in the stretch, so what appears to be a really bad ride was actually a good one. :rolleyes:


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