Derby Trail Forums - 6/16: Belmont Park (1st-9th)

Was running the Belmont carryover table Sunday up to the nightcap where the mile and a quarter event tripped me up and ruined the afternoon. What looked initially like a difficult series went completely chalky, but admittedly had no clue what direction to go in on the classic distance lawn test. Going against the Pat Reynolds ML favorite and omitting him from the play turnedf out to be deadly. The prices on the P6 ($1,747) and P4 ($177) were hardly life-changing, but when you get to the finales in sequences like that, you want to close them out successfully. Three 5 of 6 conso tix at least cut the investment down by $85.

Generic Wednesday card at BEL today, but there are some short-priced favorites that are begging you to play against them, so it could be a fun afternoon.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

SCR #1, #5, #2b.. No superfecta..

Most Likely: #3 Prince Woodman 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #6 Matt's a Giant 3-1 WON ($8.50)
Exotics Use: #1a Can't Refuse 7-2 2nd

2nd: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

You're very much obligated to go against 8-5 Ramsgate in this spot. Even if he's back to what he was with 500 days between starts, it still doesn't assure him of a win here..

Best Value: #2 Eltish Star 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 My Daddio 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Missle Motor 8-1 3rd

3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Another spot where you want to go against a fave returning from injury at a short number. These types certainly can win coming from trainers like Jerkens, but you'll make money long term going against them as win keys..

Best Value: #4 Saint Daimon 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Desert Key 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Love Abroad 15-1 4th

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Not to pick on Chad Brown today, but doesn't something kind of stink about Splendid Behavior's solid debut for $50k and now the drop to $35k? If the horse was worth keeping, you'd move him to MSW company or at least keep him at $50k. Still the likliest winner, but doesn't feel trustworthy..

Most Likely: #3 Splendid Behavior 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 El Gran Matador 6-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Maxahme 10-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Glory Chaser 6-1 5th

5th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Higher Incentive 12-1 7th
Most Likely: #8 Ambidaxtrous 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Exiled Princess 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1a Exclusive Scheme 6-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-5-6
3: 2-4-5
4: 2-3
5: 4-6-8

4x3x2x3 = $72

6th: MSW, 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Cheyenne Nation 9-5 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #6 Al Muhtasib 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Macedonian 4-1 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 No Rhyme Or Reason 7-5 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #3 Alykela 12-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Z Cats Meow 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Our Montana Dream 30-1 8th

8th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m (DD)

SCR favored #4 Harmonizer 2-1.. No superfecta..

Best Value:#7 Long Jump 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Magic Lion 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #5 Web Gem 8-1 4th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Best Value: #10 Pegasus Ena 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Scorper 5-2 WON ($6.50)
Exotics Use: #1 Peyton's Heart 5-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Buffalo Runner 8-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-6
7: 3-4-7
8: 3-5-7
9: 1-3-7-10

2x3x3x4 = $72 $1 P4 (1-7/9-3/4-7/11) Paid $35.50

Good luck!
Steve