Derby Trail Forums - 8/16: Saratoga (Day 22-Special; $63k C/O)

Number of crazy horses spiced up the Sunday Spa action and produced a nice $63k P6 carryover for Monday. The pinnacle of surprises certainly was Dallas Stewart's MSW winner Marvel Gaye ($69.00) who upset a field full of better bred baby girls with a strong finish under Kent Desormeaux.

I didn't get much of anything on the afternoon, though Best Value top choice Fancy Fiona ($19.20) in the 5th and dead heat double trifecta payoffs in the 4th took the edge of P4 and P3 shutouts. The score that I missed was the 3rd-4th-5th Pick 3 that returned $624.00 ($1) with Who's Willie Fitz ($44.80) starting it before Happy Week and Fancy Fiona. I had added Willie to the plays as a SCR Add, but didn't have a P3 ticket with him on it.

The monstrous Del Mar carry spread a little prize money ($3,666) to a lot of players with generally formful results. I caught 5 of 6 for a $66.60 conso. Hope you did OK Sunday and well over the weekend! Ron Anderson, Steve Asmussen and Michael Blowen join Seth Merrow and I this morning on "Keyword: Saratoga" on Capital OTB Channel 12, and a tricky carryover card at the Spa could provide another day of nice mutuels...

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Firey Red 2-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Consequence 7-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Weekend Fantasy 6-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Go Ask Alex 12-1 3rd

2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, NO Super)

Best Value: #5 Thatagirl 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Hurricane Barb 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Tea Party Gal 5-1 4th

3rd: Saratoga Special (G2), 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Kantharos 4-5 WON ($2.30)
Next Best: #1 Bail Out the Cat 8-5

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$63k P6 C/O Starts Here..

Most Likely: #1 Grand Terror 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Stylish Fella 4-1 WON ($8.50)
Best Value: #7 Dark Cove 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Dare to Live 10-1 4th

5th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Yet another one of these terrific NY turf ALW's. Respect the top choices, but be sure to include prices because they will be in the mix..

Most Likely: #1 Justify 7-2 4th
Next Best: #7 Gitchee Goomie LATE SCR
Best Value: #10 Sounds Familiar 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Tutti Va Bene 12-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-5-7
3: 4
4: 1-4-7-8-9
5: 1-7/SCR-10

3x1x5x3 = $45

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Sit Chilly 6-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Lemon Tiger 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Goodgollymissdolly 10-1 7th
Super Add: #10 My Sweet Emily 15-1 8th

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Run to Grand Ave. 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #4 Renewed Hope 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Adams Circle 4-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Papa Frita 8-1 3rd

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Given difficult of rest of the P6 sequence, most will have to live with Tahitian Warrior as a single. But shouldn't he be running in the King's Bishop?

Most Likely: #2 Tahitian Warrior 1-1 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #4 Starforaday 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Uwannapieceofthis 8-1 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #15 D'bigcat 5-2 WON ($7.70)
Best Value: #8 Regal Soul 12-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Dixie Night Out 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #14 Broken Home 8-1 4th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-7-8
5: 1-7
6: 4-8
7: 3-4-6-10
8: 2
9: 8-15

3x2x2x4x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-8
7: 3-4-6-10
8: 2
9: 7-8-14-15

3x4x1x4 = $48

Good luck!
Steve