Derby Trail Forums - 11/14: Aqueduct (1st; 6th-9th); Churchill (P4)

Three swings at quads Saturday brought back scores at Aqueduct and Calder for almost $2,000 exactly. As usual in P4 scenarios, the margin between lucrative payoffs and marginal returns can be one horse. At Calder, getting Joannie's Catch into the skien at 12-1 was the key to the $1,685 bingo as the other three winners were 3-2, 9-2, and 2-1. (As well as the $675 8th-10th P3.) In NY, no winner even reached 4-1 in the P4, and my live ticket to 6 horses included prices of $1,075, $2,130 and $3,710. Even though I got beat at Churchill, the example of one horse making the difference was evident as the 7th race Pitts winner at 26-1 tripped a $2,400 (.50) return with winners of the other three legs paying $4.20, $7.60 and $5.40.

The point is that you have to put yourself in position to catch a nice ticket when playing P3's and P4's, and failure to build ducats that include 10-1, 15-1 and 20-1 horses won't ever snare one. You still frequently need to include vulnerable favorites in your plays, but don't be shy about envisioning race scenarios that will produce horses you believe have a shot at big numbers. And with .50 P4's available more and more widely, there is really no excuse for daring inclusions...

Hope you did great Saturday and thanks to the kind Emailers who rode along with yesterday's successes. In handicapping Sunday's cards, I found the races much tougher to read than I did Saturday, and I'll be treading lightly in the Big A and Downs sequences.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Benzel-Live Oak ML favorite (and Zenyatta half) Souper Spectacular needs to improve further to best this group of hard-knocking elders. Has certainly found home on turf, but 5-2 number, and possibly less, invites play-against..

Most Likely: #4 Center Divider 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Carson Hall 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Souper Spectacular 5-2 WON ($5.70)
Super Add: #1 Piazza Di Spagna 20-1 7th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 4-6 with 1-3-4-6 with 1-3-4-5-6 with ALL (2x3x3x6 = 108 x .10 = $10.80)

6th: Memories of Silver, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult group to seperate. The one thing that appears certain, is that should #11 Unbridled Humor draw in, she is very much the horse to beat..

Most Likely: #11 Unbridled Humor 2-1 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #5 Hatheer 20-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Sea Road 6-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Ultimate Class 12-1 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Catreign 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Spell Check 5-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #8 Over Served 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Buddy's Dream 10-1 5th

$1 Exacta (4-8) Paid $21.90
$1 Trifecta (4-8-1) Paid $43.00

8th: Thunder Rumble-NY, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 General Maximus 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Driven By Success 6-5 WON ($4.50)
Exotics Use: #1 Uncle T Seven 4-1 4th

9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Deanallen'skitten 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Suroof 12-1 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #4 Smart Farming 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Trail Magic 5-1

$1 Exacta (1-7) Paid $17.80
$1 Trifecta (1-7-4) Paid $97.25

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 11
7: 1-4-8
8: 1-2-3-4
9: 1-4-5-7

1x3x4x4 = $48

$1 Pick 4 (3,11,12,13/4/4/1) Paid $172.25

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Moe Man 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Monsignor 2-1 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Medal Round 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Max Silverhammer 5-1 6th

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5f OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Elusive Joli 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #3 Spanish Comedy 30-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Atrea 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #11 Bayou Miss 10-1 4th

$1 Exacta (7-3) Paid $23.70
$1 Trifecta (7-3-6) Paid $87.10
$1 Superfecta (7-3-6-11) Paid $759.10

9th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Kensei 8-5 7th
Best Value: #6 River Bear 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Agastache 6-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Early Return 6-1 WON-DQ ($9.40)

10th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 She Has a Heart 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Decantering 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Implicate 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Devilish Silver 5-2 8th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Tapitforpar 12-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-6-7
8: 3-6-7-11
9: 1-3-6
10: 1-4-7-10

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve