Derby Trail Forums - Friday 9/1 Saratoga analysis

Sunny and breezy and in the 70's. Track is fast and turf is firm for historic twilight card at the Spa. Lets start with the changes:
http://www.nyra.com/chart/today.asp?track=S

race 1- Caiman is a hard old knocker but likes to come from another time zone, hes a popular horse because of this dramatic style and is usually overbet in part because of it. Race looks paceless to me and you just have to take a stand against him as the likely big chalk.
Only 3 horses have any chance of doing that. Seaside Salute loves the track up here as evidenced by the record of 4-2-1-0 on this track. Only time he missed the board was last out when hugely overpowered in class. On that day he dueled with eventual impressive winner Fairbanks before fading to a well beaten 4th. You might note that 2nd place finisher Champ Safi returned to easily win his next start in that condition. Draws the rail today and appears to be lone speed on the dropdown for just arrived in town apprentice Jeffrey Sanchez who loves to gun em and run em. Dual Jewels is a reclaim by Friedman who has shown the ability to fire big numbers at times. Cat's A Rockin flew home(albeit with the aid of the bias) last out in a &f race that was a tad short for him. Love the sprint to route angle with a horse who is already a defined router.
Key the 2,3,7 over the 2,3,5,7 in exactas and tris. Use the 2,3,7 in the first half of the DD.

race 2- In A Wonder She Is's debut she sunk a lotta folks. She was a big play by many clockers and their friends. She broke sharp, took up slighlty and just never ran. The other day she came back and worked and I caught her and said wow, who is that. It was her. Many people don't realize that to add blinkers to a maiden you have to get stewards approval and that means working them in the blinks. She may have been a typical green baby who didn't run to her works in her debut. She rolls today, empty out on her. Draws the outside post and will make the lead from the gate and never look back. Rayona is the only saver to use in here. Broke bad and rallied late while very wide in a decent group of MSW's.
Key the 8 heavily, save with the 1.

race 3- Chaos race where every horse looks good and bad. I don't trust Big Prairie back off a perfect trip where he lagged far back behind a suicidal speed duel. I think hes vulnerable. I wouldnt play the exacta or tri but you have to try and hit the pik-4 with the horse in the 2nd race being a good play.
Use the 1,2,3,5,7,8 in pik's. race is wide open and chaotic.

race 4- Zitos horse Striking Tomisue has more ability than these and if she breaks ok she will win.
Key the 7, save with the 5,6,9.

race 5- No rocket science here. Her Royal Nibs exploded last out when turned back to a sprint. Third place finisher returned to win easily. Ran a crazy fast number in her last. Only horse with a shot to beat her is Vasa. Stoklosa, once ice cold, has hired a new exercise boy who has helped turn that outfit around. She is already mulitple stakes placed and showed serious ability and speed earlier this year. Gets lasix for the first time today and shows some sharp works. One other thing, shes ready to roll. Shes being shipped all the way up from Aqueduct for this race today. They could have stayed home and waited til next week or so and run her at home in NYC and saved the hassle of shipping all the way up here. Beware any shippers from NYC this weekend who come all the way up here to run(and provided that the trainer doesnt have a division at Spa in the fall to train).

race 6- Freudian Smile can fly, she "may" have worked a tad quicker than listed. Precious Too got left at the gate last out and then made crazy good middle move before running green in the lane. By awesome grass sire Precise End. Ahvee's Destiny is very talented, but may be better next time out.

Key the 7, and use the 4,5.

Race 7- Seeking Answers drops down looking to get Chuck a win up here. Love Chuck, hes a great guy, but the horse will be overbet and offer little value while only as sharp as about 4 others.
Hunting Hillbilly has been the recipient of some damn tough trips. Draws inside today with Edgar.Forget The Judge had nightmare trip two back but the other 5 most recent races hes run on teh sheets would make him damn tough to beat. Bon marie may get loose from the hedge. I'm a Fax got lousy ride last out. Likes to hang(2 wins as opposed to 11 2nds and 3rds) can be used underneath in gimmicks at a huge price.
Key the 2,9. Use the 1,3,8 underneath and around in gimmicks.

Race 8- Twilight Meteor was left at the gate, and then hung very wide both turns while behind a dawdling pace, still got up. This is a very talented colt. Biancone's firster French Transition has been sizzling in teh morning and awed my clocker in a grass work. Draws the hedge and could debut a stakes winner. Pickapocket improved dramatically 2nd time out but is rushed back here quick.
Key the 5, use the 1,2

race 9- Bella Attrice had two nice 2nds in her first two. Returned off mini layoff in a stakes race when she only had 3 works for the race. Prep city. She should win by a pole today. Watch for front wraps to be removed that she wore last time for the first time.
Underneath in tri's you can use the ususal suspects.
Key the 8, use the 9 for the 2nd and 3rd in supers around the 1,2,3,5,7,10