5/12: Churchill (P6/Hi-5 C/O's); Hollywood (P5/P6 C/O's)
 

Another Derby, another carryover bonanza left in its' wake. $515k P6 and $220k Hi-5 pots lay in wait Thursday on an approachable series of races at the Downs. Meanwhile, Hollywood has its' own pair of bonus pools with remainders of $107k in the P5 and $91k in the sextet. Thoughts below, with Marty McGee visiting ATR at 9:30a to preview the Kentucky jackpots.

Good day of racing Wednesday at Belmont with a great deal of success on the first half of the card as the $240+ early P4 and a $70 overlay P3 on races 2-4 helped build a nice cushion. Tough to find $60 winner of the 6th derailed the late P4. Hope you did well!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$515k P6 Carryover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #8 Donnaguska 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #12 Dreymore 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Gaelic Lass 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #11 Lookslikelove 12-1 6th


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Muhaaseb 7-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Gypsy Wind 3-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Awesome Review 8-1 WON ($12.00)
Super Add: #8 Devine Revelation 5-1 8th


7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Patine 7-2 8th
Best Value: #3 Little Bit Tiny 12-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Anabaa's Fortune 9-2 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #5 She Can Fly 4-1 5th


8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Cherry Included 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #6 Rollin Jai Jai 10-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Starkey 6-1 9th
Super Add: #9 China Melissa 8-1 7th


9th: CLM, 3+, 5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Parioli's Trick 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Free Brave 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Lookn Mighty Fast 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Tangled Sheets 4-1 WON ($13.20)


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (Super, Super Hi-5)

$220k Hi-5 Carryover..

Most Likely: #7 Tactical Man 4-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Miami Rockstar 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Cowboy Sam 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #3 Waylon's Ghost 20-1 11th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Blue Solitude 6-1 3rd


<$100 Super Hi-5 Play:

A: 7
B: 4-6
C: 3-4-6
D: 3-4-6-7-9
E: All

1x2x2x3x7 = $84


<$100 P6 Play:

5: 7-8-12
6: 4-9
7: 3-4
8: 3
9: 3-5
10: 4-7

3x2x2x1x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-5-7-11
8: 3-6
9: 1-3-5
10: 3-4-6-7-9

5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75



HOLLYWOOD PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

$107k .50 P5 Carryover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #5 Roulette It Roll 5-2 -
Best Value: #3 Desperate Measures 5-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #1 Meter Me Gone 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Diamond Journey 12-1 4th


2nd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 All the Love 3-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #3 Moonstruck Maya 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Going for a Spin 8-5 3rd
Super Add: #5 Miss Mittagong 6-1 5th


3rd: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 4.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$91k $2 P6 Carryover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #5 Gogi 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Vicki Victoria 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Dolphin Bay 7-2
Super Add: #9 Molly's All Heart 3-1


4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Party Ruler 4-1 -
Next Best: #8 Free From My Ex 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 You Little Devil 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Nisus 5-2 WON ($12.20)


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Vikkilee 2-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Marrymeonemoretime 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Entabeni 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Sleep Tight 7-2 WON ($9.40)


<$75 P5 Play:

1: 1-3-5
2: 3-4
3: 2-4-5
4: 6-8
5: 2-3-8-9

3x2x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Afleet Deal 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Gallant Gent 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Star Nicholas 6-1 2nd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Kate's Event 9-2 5th
Next Best: #2 Cigar Man 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Burj Dubai 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Uh Oh Bango 5-2 WON ($8.00)


8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Gutshot Straight 7-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #2 Gifted Student 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Cabo San Lucas 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Smokin Bomb 15-1 2nd


<$150 P6 Play:

3: 4-5
4: 6
5: 2-3-8-9
6: 1-3-6
7: 2-3-4
8: 3

2x1x4x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

5: 2-3-8-9
6: 1-3-6
7: 2-3-4
8: 2-3

4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36


Good luck!
Steve

CD Pick 6

7,8
2,4,9
4,10,11,12
3,8
1,5
6,11

$384

For play-along purposes only (not home to play for real)
Hollywood pick 5
1,5
3,6
2,5,9
2,6,7,8
3,8,9
$72 bucks

Good Luck

Hollywood pk6 stab:

$96
3- 5,9
4- 6
5- 8,9
6- 1,6,9,10
7- 2,3,4
8- 3

Good Luck!

That was a masterpiece by Cornelio in the BEL 8th.

Nicely structured play JD. 2x2 for something or everything! G/L rest of way..

I'm very surprised to see Free From My Ex open as the 3/5 favorite in the Hollywood 4th. I would love to see Party Ruler stay in the 8-1 range, but doubt that will happen.

Eff.

Oh well.

can anyone post the pk5 willpays to the
1
2
3
8
9

For some reason not coming up on drf

1- 2,255
2- 1,811
3- 1,125
8- 827
9- 1,064

thank you very much

Nice Root :tro::$:

thanks..at least paid for my pk6 misses today.

R/D,

Congrats. That was a terrific score and exactly the kind of boost needed with the widespread investments yesterday. Personally, I was thrilled with the $39 conso from the P5... :rolleyes: Nisus. Uggh. Why does this type of chronic career maiden seem to decide to win during important carryover sequences?

Thank you Steve. I used Nisus the last 3 times at SA, and stuck around one more time as I thought he might like returning to the All-Weather surface. My top pick was the #2 Last Memories, who was the Puype firster with good works. First he broke his bridle at the gate, then he got bumped around pretty bad in teh lane. I protected in that race so hit pk5 and missed pk6...was SHOCKED at the payout of the pk5. That was by far the best betting sequence in the day, as the 50cent option made it a good value.

great payouts on both the p5 and p6 yesterday...wish i would have saved some money from the derby!