Derby Trail Forums - 7/4: Belmont Park ($46k C/O); Parx (Dr. Penny); Churchill (Firecracker)

Using a push of the 'all' button in the 6 horse Futurity proved highly productive Sunday, as the longest shot on the board -- $30 Jack's in the Deck -- jumped up and drubbed the field to trigger a heavily overlaid $1,036 P4. It was a delightful score for a $54 investment, as the rest of the day's surprises -- especially Tamarind Hall's shocker in the G3 Bed 'o Roses for Englehart and Cohen -- stopped most multi-race tickets and helped push the carryover (now $45,867) into today. Hope you did well! Opinions below and plenty of recapping and previewing on today's ATR... A safe and happy 4th to all!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Bad horses win bad races, but it's ill-advised to get too creative to start the sequence. We 'need' the obvious horses to run, because fishing deep on the P6 play here isn't prudent..

Most Likely: #5 Haya's Boy 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Pawnee Red 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Gypsy Warrior 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Robbie's Turn 15-1 4th

$1 Exacta (9-5) Paid $4.60
$1 Trifecta (9-5-3) Paid $11.10
$1 Superfecta (9-5-3-6) Paid $63.00

6th: CLM, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sheraguska 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Gentle Edwin 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Show Trial 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Merlin Bay 8-1 5th

$1 Exacta (7-4) Paid $11.20
$1 Trifecta (7-4-2) Paid $20.30

7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Atitlan 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Mightylover 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Medieval Sword 8-1 WON ($18.20)
Super Add: #6 Dunwoody 7-2 10th

$1 Exacta (9-3) Paid $24.60
$1 Trifecta (9-3-1) Paid $81.25

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Good race with deep field of interesting contenders. Excellent wagering opp, especially if you're not a big multi-race player..

Most Likely: #1 Pretty Cozzy 5-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Winged Bandit 6-1 WON ($13.60)
Best Value: #8 Glory in Motion 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Oatka Ida Rose 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (5-8) Paid $68.00
$1 Trifecta (5-8-7) Paid $440.00

9th: 64th Prioress (G1), 3yo-F, 6f (DD)

A lot of speed signed on here. Should we 'expect' a collapse or just be prepared should one occur? Pure sprint PA-bred Quantum Miss is a filly Tony Dutrow told ATR listeners about over the winter, and if she continues to advance, or even simply holds form, she may be flat out faster than these. That 3-1 looks like a beach ball..

Most Likely: #4 QUANTUM MISS 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Alienation 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Pomeroys Pistol 4-1 2nd

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #4 Big Apple Lady 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Another Please 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Malibu Spice 4-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Siwanoy Lila 9-2 5th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 5
6: 2-4-7-8
7: 1-3-9
8: 1-5
9: 4
10: 1-3-4

1x4x3x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-6-9
8: 1-3-5-6-7-8
9: 4-5
10: 1-3-4

4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

PARK - PHILADELPHIA PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

9th: 13th Dr. James Penny Memorial H., F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Excellent edition of this race which may find a number attached to it next year based on this group. Idea to make money here is beating the underlaid entry and high profile Motion runners..

Best Value: #2 Strike the Bell 12-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Daveron 7-2 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Desert Sage 9-2 4th

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

10th: 21st Firecracker H. (G2), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Omniscient 20-1: 2nd/break; Prepped on lawn; Saves ground 10th
Next Best: #1 General Quarters 3-1: Back to lawn 2nd off break; Not a fan, but.. 7th
Exotics Use: #4 El Caballo 9-2: Also back on grass and real threat on best.. 9th
Super Add: #3 Mister Marti Gras -- SCR'D

SCR Add: #9 Strike Impact 8-1 3rd

Good luck!
Steve