Derby Trail Forums - 7/17: Saratoga (Day 5; Lake George)

Monday was one of those wash away days we get at the Spa, as heavy rains scuttled fields in 4 of the 5 scheduled turf races. I never play on days like those, with so much great racing already slated for this week. The first three days had a steady flow to them with modest profits being ground out, and I enter the body of the meet up ahead by $300. As previously discussed, P3's with typical investments of $12-$30 have been very productive, and are offsetting missed P4 tries. Two nice opening day exactas of more than $100 (Pico Dinero; James Marvin) and one for $285 Sunday (Coaltown Legend) are the difference in being slightly up so far, showing how the big fields and uncomplicated wagering can be enough at a meet like this. Hope you're doing well! They'll draw Saturday's Diana card today, but it will be hard-pressed to be much better than the midweek racing scheduled for Wednesday-Friday! On top of the action here, Del Mar has an enormous $240k P6 carryover that intrigues as well. Bobby Flay live at the Barbecue this morning!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Celebrity Sighting 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 A Perfect Squeeze 5-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Landlash 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Pyramist 9-2 6th

2nd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

An utter chess match going a mile and an eighth. Henny's Hurricane SCR'd inside has chance to wire them with very little speed signed on to this and a clever front end pilot aboard in Cruz..

Best Value: #2 Sister Resistor 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Seeking the Title 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Protesting 3-1 WON ($6.60)

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD)

Second in Overdriven's debut, Barbara's J C's Pride should be able to grab this early and not let go. McPeek is fooling no one with outside colt that was unveiled at Ellis on the turf. Pletcher firster by Bluegrass Cat is likely OK, and Zito's Hard Spun is a half to the nice 4x winner Katy Now..

Most Likely: #3 J C's Pride 1-1 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #6 Ventura Bar 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Mr. Style 2-1 2nd

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Hoopskirt 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Estero Bay 7-2 WON ($12.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Vintage Heirloom 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Rockport Lover 6-1 6th

5th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

#1e Ward entry SCR'd

Best Value: #9 Tiger Walk 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Sark 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Doctor Chit 5-2 6th
Super Add: #2 Situational Ethics 15-1 5th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: ALL (4)
3: 3
4: 1-3-4-8-9
5: 2-3-6-7-9

4x1x5x5 = 100 x .50 = $50

6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Billy Cesare is good for a placement at a big number in a MDN race annually here. Inner Truth (15-1) may be this year's model..

Most Likely: #7 Special Dancer 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Inner Truth 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Wedding in Sorano 6-1 WON ($17.20)
Super Add: #4 City Scamper 15-1 5th

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Bob's Pinup Girl 7-2 6th
Best Value: #7 Unique Citizen 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Dopke Gal 5-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Sister Berta 12-1 5th

8th: 16th Lake George (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Nice cast for Spa's annual turf test of soph gals..

Most Likely: #4 Winter Memories 1-1: Has been exciting to watch as 3yo; Avenges Cup beat.. WON ($)
Best Value: #5 Bellamy Star 5-1: "Now" horse sharp winning 7f stake at BEL; Bought by Pompa.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 More Than Real 2-1: BC Juvy Turf heroine returns off unsuccessful trip to Ascot.. 3rd

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Fun group and an excellent wagering affair..

Best Value: #1 Out of Your Mind 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Power Blast 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Joey's Chance 15-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Petey Cramer 4-1 3rd

10th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Lovely Lil 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #5 Freud's Notebook 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Sezzana 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Bailzee 8-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-5-7-8-9
8: 4-5
9: 1-2-9
10: 1-3-4-5

6x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve