Question for anyone who knows???
 

What does it mean when they say overlay? Or underlay? I have tried to figure this out on my own, I am assuming it means that it is a good bet or a bad bet, like this horse is an underlay, does it mean this horse is better than the odds it is getting, for example it is at 4-1 when it should be 6-5 based upon how good the horse is???


2nd question, what does it mean or what is the importance of "He has a dosage of 1.6, sky is the limit"??? What does that mean, I know it has to do with lasix? But the distribution of it? How does that affect the horse? Is that something to use or not use for betting purposes?

I would appreciate any and all feedback. Fully admitting I am forever a student with this game and love learning more and more.

An overlay is a horse whose odds are higher than his actual (really perceived) chance of winning. An underlay is a horse whose odds are lower than his actual chance of winning. Overlays are good, underlays are bad.

Dosage has nothing to do with Lasix. It's an outdated pedigree thing. If someone mentions dosage to you, run.

Thanks Hockey, I feel better I was in the ball park with the overlays. I appreciate the answer. If you have time or anyone else, what is the importance of the rail height? And how do you know a horse has speed. For instance Funky monkey mama at Saratoga on Sunday, they said she had front end speed. How do you know that? Is that from the form? Looking to see her times from previous races and see how fast her times were? I realize you can't know for certain a horse like that is going to win or nobody on here would have a job, but I am curious as to how would one even know a horse has front end speed? Why do the tracks one day favor front end speed, one day they favor closers? And how the heck do you make that a part of your betting plan? Lastly? Is one way of attacking the game to bet favorites in bets where you bet them to be second and third? Yes you will get beat sometimes but sometimes when they do get beat and they end up second or third it comes out to be a profit at the end of the day when playing the favorite to get beat. The purple cat on Sunday, and all/3/all and all/all/3 cost 40$ and the payout was over 110$ for a profit of 70$ +. Is that a legit way to attack the day from a betting standpoint?

It's not about the height of the rail, it's about the distance that the temporary rail is out. This is done to protect the turf course, so that the horses don't consistantly run on the same path.

If a horse is close to the lead throughout a lot of their races, that's usually a good indicator of speed (you can see their early position and lengths behind at every call of the race in the Form/program). Tracks don't often favor speed one day and then closers the next. You have to pay close attention to how the races are being run throughout the day and adjust accordingly. Betting a favorite underneath a few horses in an exacta or trifecta can often be a good strategy, but playing an all/favorite or all/all/favorite ticket will most likely lose you money in the long run. Personally if I think a favorite is vulnerable, I choose to play against them in multi-race wagers.

That particular race it was a small field hence the all bet, but I appreciate the thoughts and answers. There is so much to learn in this game. I talk to people at the track who have been playing for years who don't know half as some of the people on this forum. It is amazing how much there is to know and the end of the day, it is still nothing close to certain. Thank goodness I am a lot better at the stock market. Anyway, thanks again for the information gentlemen, really appreciate the help.

Even more of a reason to play a multi-race sequance in an event like that. In a short field as long as that heavy favorite hits the board, the payouts are probably going to be on the short side.

^^^^ Mike Beer...don't let him fool you.

Dosage is discussed and explained at length by Dr. Stephen Roman at his website:

www.chef-de-race.com

Dosage is interesting but like hockey said, run and don't pay attention to it. It's an outdated, self fulfilling prophecy.

.....one other thing of note, the redboard police will write you a citation for a statement such as this one. Also, pay special attention to Clydes analysis of the big races. He can sometimes be right on the money.

Thank you so much.

I enjoy showing up the elite Cold Superfecta Team over at NA on Game Face Days.


You're about this one;next thing you know he will tell us how he has become an overnight billionaire in stocks.

g 75 try reading a few books..

beyer on speed.is a good one

ect some of the others here can suggest many books that will help you in your quest..

gl hooves

Thanks Hooves, appreciate it. I didn't mean to start anything, I was simply saying I do financial sales, I lost Saturday and Sunday at the track. I lose more than I win. That Tri bet all/all/3 with the Terranvoa favorite, paid out more and was a profit on that one race, nothing close for the day. Anyway, I wasn't trying to redboard, Luckily I can sell more than bet on the ponies, for now anyway. Won't be a billionare anytime soon, however Gold will go hundreds and hundreds of points higher. Horses still learning, The market, got a handle on that one. Anyway, wasn't trying to stir anything up. I have read how this board can go. Looking for some answers, looking to learn about this game everyday. Thanks for those who took the time to give your knowledge, much appreciated.

not stirring up i just want you the know there are many good books out that can help you in grasping the small things in the game..most of us have read them..if you want to play the game with some knowlage just as in trading you need to do your homework..

I agree, I am already on Amazon looking them up Hooves. I am teachable in the market and especially in the horses. I was looking to learn I only started this thread to sincerely learn, my thinking was asking questions here I would get the answers from people who knew what they were talking about. Was not trying to get the redboard police after me, that is for sure. Thanks again. I will be reading very shortly.

Try Handicapping 101 by Brad Free.

Oh shut up...yer mekin' me sick already.

If you start to pay very close attention to what Kasept and Hooves propose as their positions on the day, as I have over four years or so on the site, you will start to learn after analysis of your own why they are choosing the horses they do. At this point you can start to apply the (perceived anyway) theories to your own handicapping. Then comes the hard part, wagering strategy...

Find your own way. You can do it without investing any money until you are comfortable. Learn to read the form and look back at the day's results and try to see if you can understand why a result occured.

Reading books and understanding others analysis will be helpful to get you started but unless you form your own opinions and observations you might as well just wager on other peoples picks.