Derby Trail Forums - 4/4: Aqueduct (6th-9th)

Wild results closed out the FG's season Sunday including LA Derby stunner from improbable Gennadi Dorochenko and his $3,000 Sharp Humor colt. That result concluded a sequence where I couldn't include a winner in any of the featured quad. In fact, the stakes P3 of Nates Mineshaft ($20.80), Casino Host ($23.80) and Hero of Order ($220.80) returned a jaw-dropping $52,965 ($1). While the $220 winner was close to impossible to endorse, he was far more plausible than Comisky's Humor who somehow went off at 26-1 versus Hero of Order's 109-1. Dorochenko made for an interesting guest Tuesday on ATR. Gave the Santa Anita double carryover a decent run going 4/6, but my first inclination that the long Saturday had taken the starch out was the right thought and I gave back several hundred of the previous day's good results. Hope everyone did OK and you didn't get too badly abused by my direction. Aqueduct P4 action to start the race week is VERY difficult with a pair of turf MSW's that have blow up potential..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Handsome Harbor 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Personal Assistant 3-1 WON ($4.50)
Exotics Use: #6 Misslewhileyouwork 6-1 4th

7th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Super challenging set. Bush (#9 Fujiana) 3 for 9 ($3.06 ROI) with 2nd timers stretching out while going dirt to turf. #1 Always Home (SCR'D) has slew of sibs proficient turf routing including SW full Home and Away..

Most Likely: #9 Fujiana 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Late SCR
Best Value: #6 Penthouse Party 6-1 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #10 Dita 5-2 4th

8th: S/HCP, 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Very tricky and well matched group..

Most Likely: #4 Joan's Choice 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Black N Beauty 4-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Saginaw 2-1 WON ($9.00)

9th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Faves look more reliable here than in the 7th, but the next 6 or so look like they have breakthrough potential getting back on the grass after wintering locally..

Most Likely: #1 Shaun Washington 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #10 Saturnus 8-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Valley Stream 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Get Right 8-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

High risk sequence with potentially high reward..

6: 4-6-8
7: 3/SCR-6-9-10
8: 4-6
9: 1-4-7-9-10-11

3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve