Derby Trail Forums - 4/12: Keeneland (5th-9th): Oaklawn (7th-10th)

Though I couldn't sustain any momentum Wednesday and came away generally beaten up, ATR listeners that noted Andy Serling's Tuesday suggestions had every opportunity to navigate the late P4 for a $2,200 score. Great job by Andy as the treacherous action left a P6 carryover ($22k) with no one able to tab 5 of yesterday's 6! Hope everyone did OK despite my poor lead.

More good sequences today with the G1 Madison featured at Keeneland and a pair of listed stakes at Oaklawn ahead of Friday's Apple Blossom. On the topic of OP's Racing Festival of the South, Wednesday saw an impressive win by Mamma Kimbo in the Fantasy as she effortlessly dispatched Amie's Dini in her 2nd career start and first try around two turns. Big talent.

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo, 4.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

First capped juvenile race of '12! I'll dig deep and take... Wesley Ward and... Wesley Ward. #3 The Roofer (Half to SW Pace Town) may merit a slight edge over his stablemate #1 Handsome Jack given his local drills..

Most Likely: #3 The Roofer 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Handsome Jack 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Joha 3-1 5th

6th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 12f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Point of Entry 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #7 Tahoe Lake 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Belo Acteon 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Pleasant Run 6-1 4th

$1 Exacta (2-7) $15.50
$1 Trifecta (2-7-10) $62.90
$1 Superfecta (2-7-10-6) $328.50

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Tightly packed group with favored Fantasy of Flight solid but not invincible..

Best Value: #8 Its About Midnight 6-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Fantasy of Flight 9-5 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #11 Abriana 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Avid 6-1 4th

8th: Madison (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Excellent cast including '11 F&M Sprint Champ Musical Romance who handled this strip adroitly in last fall's TCA..

Most Likely: #2 Musical Romance 3-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Groupie Doll 4-1 WON ($9.80)
Best Value: #9 Ariana D 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Sugarinthemorning 5-1 6th

9th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Anna Sophia 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Kitty Wine 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Run a Risk 12-1 WON ($14.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Tell Me Everything 6-1 7th

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 1-3
6: 2
7: 7-8-11
8: 2-5-8-9
9: 3-4/SCR-6

2x1x3x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-7-10
7: 7-8-11
8: 2-5-8-9
9: 3-4/SCR-6-10

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/6,7/8/10) Paid $331.50

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, F&M-3,4,5yo, 8.5f (P4)

Best Value: #4 Fouteengunsalute 8-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Time Counts 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Returned to Sender 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Isla 3-1 3rd

8th: 33rd Carousel, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, Super)

Very interesting group. Faves OK but there's no shortage of price players. Note Fawkes shipping from Calder with 5yo Dizney mare (#5 Omi's Vindication) looking for black type..

Best Value: #2 Mysterious Chimes 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Beat the Blues 2-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Omi's Vindication 10-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Salty Strike 5-2 4th

9th: 2nd Red Bud, F&M-4+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

SCR of Tiz Miz Sue renders ML meaningless..

Most Likely: #3 Cascabella 3rd
Best Value: #6 Another World WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #4 Remit 2nd

10th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Frannie G 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Over Spiced 10-1 WON ($24.60)
Next Best: #10 Embers Glowing 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Kiss and Fly 10-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 4-8-9
8: 2-3-4-5
9: 3-6
10: 1-8-10

3x4x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

$0.50 Pick 4 (9/3/6/8) Paid $448.05

Good luck!
Steve