Derby Trail Forums - 10/10: Keeneland (5th-9th)

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Can't argue with Jeremy Plonk's ideas of 3-1 fave Phychadelic and 6-1 Widja Didja here, but note that Galetoire (6-1), Tart's Knickers (6-1) and Ribbon Taffy (10-1) all have solid synthetic form around the level. Cache Me -- by 18% synthetic sire Congrats -- has an attractive look if she likes the footing and California Gal (8-1), who takes as big a class drop as the favorite, owns efforts over this strip and at Presque Isle that are more than competitive. Tricky start to the P5..

Best Value: #9 Widja Didja 6-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Phychadelic 3-1 DNF
Exotics Use: #2 California Gal 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Cache Me 8-1 9th

6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Can't quibble with bona fides of 2-1 fave Kamchatka whom Maker thought enough of to try in $150k Sunday Silence on LaD Super Derby undercard. Ran OK in there too behind Java's War and Brown Almighty (See Bourbon Sunday) and gets hustling Paco Lopez who's looking for first KEE win. After Kamchatka, there's a number of attractive prices to consider that are making turf or stretchout moves including 20-1 Red Wings (English Channel o/o Red Ransom mare), 8-1 Giacoslew (slaying 2nd in KD sprint) and 20-1 Xingu (2nd timer off solid KD debut at huge number)..

Most Likely: #9 Kamchatka 2-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Rocking Hall 6-1 WON ($12.80)
Best Value: #11 Xingu 20-1 12th
Exotics Use: #4 Giacoslew 8-1 4th

.10 SUPER: Key 9 over 4-7-11 with 3-4-6-7-10-11 (1x3x5x4 = 60 x .10 = $6.00)

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Brew Blessings 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Touch of Revenge 6-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Miss Ruud 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #11 Bonita Muneca 12-1 3rd

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Good feature. Glamour N Glory the filly to beat and David Fawkes adds hood to try and get her into race earlier with the 7 runner-up finishes a glaring flaw. Tim Ice has steadily rebuilt his client base since the slpit with the Jayaramans and horses like stakes runner Brown Almighty and 6-1 Stehekin here are getting his name back into pervue..

Most Likely: #10 Glamour N Glory 4-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Stehekin 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Quinichette 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Absolute Crackers 8-1 WON ($22.40)

9th: S/ALW, 3+, 10f (Super Hi-5)

Odd assembly of starter allowance foes going 10 panels..

Best Value: #11 Religious Ed 9-2 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #4 Swinging Bernie 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Icy Strait 12-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Bluegrass Dreamer 4-1 5th

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 9-11
6: 9
7: 2-5-9
8: 1-6-10
9: 3-4-6-11

2x1x3x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 7-9
7: 2-5-9
8: 1-6-10
9: 3-4-6-11-12

2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45

Good luck!
Steve